ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Ok folks. This thread is for model runs and direct discussion of them. Let's stick to that topic please. Thanks.

[butch]

From Mobile local statement. Warnings extended eastward.


000
WTUS84 KMOB 241124
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
624 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN SHORTLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG ALL OF GULF
COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA FROM 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE PREPARATIONS
UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3N...LONGITUDE 87.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 240 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF
PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

GMZ670-675-251130-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TR.W.1004.120624T1124Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
624 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...EAST WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FEET. SINCE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND
ALABAMA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60
KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241157
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 14 20120624
115000 2638N 08746W 8425 01537 //// +169 //// 324028 030 022 002 01
115030 2638N 08746W 8425 01537 //// +174 //// 323025 026 022 001 01
115100 2636N 08749W 8429 01536 //// +171 //// 320024 025 022 001 01
115130 2634N 08750W 8429 01536 //// +173 //// 317024 025 018 002 01
115200 2633N 08751W 8430 01536 //// +169 //// 317024 025 020 000 01
115230 2632N 08752W 8428 01539 //// +169 //// 314024 025 018 001 01
115300 2631N 08754W 8428 01539 //// +172 //// 310022 023 014 002 05
115330 2629N 08753W 8430 01539 //// +175 //// 308022 023 /// /// 05
115400 2630N 08751W 8436 01531 //// +171 //// 307022 022 016 002 01
115430 2630N 08749W 8429 01537 //// +170 //// 304023 023 020 001 01
115500 2630N 08747W 8431 01535 //// +172 //// 309023 023 020 002 01
115530 2630N 08745W 8428 01537 //// +175 //// 310025 025 021 001 01
115600 2630N 08743W 8429 01536 //// +175 //// 304025 026 020 002 01
115630 2630N 08741W 8431 01533 //// +173 //// 299025 026 022 001 01
115700 2630N 08739W 8429 01535 //// +175 //// 297024 025 023 002 01
115730 2630N 08736W 8432 01531 //// +167 //// 299025 026 023 000 01
115800 2631N 08734W 8430 01533 //// +165 //// 296025 025 023 001 01
115830 2631N 08732W 8430 01533 //// +165 //// 290024 025 024 001 01
115900 2631N 08730W 8427 01535 //// +165 //// 291025 026 024 001 01
115930 2631N 08728W 8432 01531 //// +168 //// 291026 026 025 000 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

New Tropical Storm Warnings issued at 7 AM CDT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

[rockyman]

Recon has also found the center a good bit NE of the 5am advisory position:

Recon 27 deg 52 min N 086 deg 29 min W
vs
5am 27.3 87.3

[rockyman]

So they've left the MS Coast out of the warning...IMO, a significant forecast change could be in store for 10am update (if they even wait that long).

[wxman57]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

[Air Force Met]

Recon found lower pressure than the 998 mbs at 5 AM advisory. Is down to 994mbs.

Yep...and it's also significantly more NE than the 4 AM position. Which is GOOD...because that is what I told the State in my morning update a couple of hours ago: That I thought the center had moved under the convection and it was significantly north and east of where the NHC position was.

We also have some convection trying to fire on the western side. Shear is lessening.

[KWT]

Yeah looks like it has shifted further NE again, I think the GFS is going to score a big win if this keeps on happening, it seems to keep getting forced towards the convection and I think that maybe enough to force it to take the GFS solution and head towards Florida.

[SoupBone]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

This would most definitely catch people off guard vacationing along the beaches. I'm hoping they are paying attention to the weather forecasts in their local areas. I know when I was there a few weeks ago, the TV wasn't even turned on.

[KWT]

Recon found lower pressure than the 998 mbs at 5 AM advisory. Is down to 994mbs.

Yep...and it's also significantly more NE than the 4 AM position. Which is GOOD...because that is what I told the State in my morning update a couple of hours ago: That I thought the center had moved under the convection and it was significantly north and east of where the NHC position was.

We also have some convection trying to fire on the western side. Shear is lessening.

I'd have thought that also means a far greater chance of getting a hurricane out of this if the center is getting tucked in with the convection and the shear is decreasing. I think the NHC strength forecast will be pretty close to the money, maybe 65-75kts.

[Air Force Met]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

Told you to watch out for those center reformations

They'll kill you every time.

[jlauderdal]

Some bad flooding down there, not all that surprising when you have so much tropical moisture surging up from the Gulf of Mexico.

tropical downpour again, it had stopped for awhile, eastern broward county getting the bulk of it..will post another pic once it stops has the water level has increased..have to wait for some runoff too for max effect,

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241207
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 15 20120624
120000 2631N 08726W 8428 01534 //// +166 //// 286026 026 025 001 01
120030 2631N 08724W 8432 01530 //// +166 //// 281026 027 026 001 01
120100 2631N 08722W 8430 01531 //// +170 //// 279026 026 027 001 01
120130 2631N 08720W 8429 01533 //// +175 //// 283027 028 028 001 01
120200 2631N 08718W 8432 01529 //// +173 //// 282029 029 029 000 01
120230 2631N 08716W 8428 01534 //// +170 //// 283029 029 028 001 01
120300 2632N 08714W 8428 01530 //// +166 //// 284030 030 029 001 01
120330 2632N 08712W 8428 01530 //// +165 //// 284031 031 027 001 01
120400 2632N 08710W 8430 01526 //// +164 //// 282031 032 029 002 01
120430 2632N 08707W 8428 01528 //// +165 //// 278032 033 031 000 01
120500 2632N 08705W 8429 01526 //// +165 //// 279033 034 030 002 01
120530 2632N 08703W 8429 01525 //// +165 //// 276035 035 030 000 01
120600 2632N 08701W 8432 01522 //// +163 //// 275035 035 030 001 01
120630 2632N 08659W 8430 01524 //// +165 //// 272035 035 031 001 01
120700 2632N 08657W 8430 01523 //// +165 //// 271036 036 031 002 01
120730 2632N 08654W 8431 01523 //// +166 //// 270036 036 031 002 01
120800 2633N 08652W 8428 01525 //// +166 //// 266036 036 031 001 01
120830 2633N 08650W 8430 01522 //// +168 //// 265038 039 030 002 01
120900 2633N 08648W 8430 01522 //// +170 //// 266040 041 029 002 01
120930 2633N 08646W 8433 01519 //// +166 //// 264040 041 029 002 01
$$
;


Note; Google Earth has stopped working for some reason, will reload it and see if that does anything, not getting a connect right now.

[caneman]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

This would most definitely catch people off guard vacationing along the beaches. I'm hoping they are paying attention to the weather forecasts in their local areas. I know when I was there a few weeks ago, the TV wasn't even turned on.

This is what I have been saying. We're leaving on vacation today and all of my family thought is was heading to Tx. Fortunately I advised them that it likely wasn't.

[Nimbus]

The outflow moisture is moving almost due west along the gulf coast now in that narrow channel between the ULL and the mid plains ridge. The LLC looks like it is spinning almost stationary near 28N and was drifting slowly in the direction of Mobile bay. Could make the turn more west and eventually even WSW when the ULL weakens and moves south. Probably be some flooding in Nola when the convection starts to wrap around the north quadrant.

The real concern is what happens at landfall further west with Debbie as a hurricane. Upper air flow will not be pulling any dry air off Texas just light moist flow from the southeast. Debbie isn't forecast to interact with the usual Texas savior trough near landfall.

[StormingB81]

So what are some of your opinions....How far East you think it will go? or will it just head north? Wonder what some of you are thinking

[johngaltfla]

New Tropical Storm Warnings issued at 7 AM CDT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

There is your start to the shift. Maybe that trough will dig just a wee bit stronger than the Euro thought. Fascinating to see how much rain we have had here in 24 hours with just over 3.9 inches in 24 hours and it is still pouring.

[stormywaves]

Looking more like a western FL panhandle landfall Tue/Wed. Center is now just too far NE to be trapped by the ridge and shoved west.

Told you to watch out for those center reformations

They'll kill you every time.

I don't post much but I do check in and read for info. This is great news for Texas we are out of it right? I will save my money and not buy prep items.