We've seen already with Ernesto that satellite images are not tools for gauging intensification, esp with developing storms. Fluctuations in pressure and wind speed are normal in any system and there are so many factors at play within the interal workings of the storm that could be important long before any trough could steer him north or not. Wobbles one way or another or a pressure drop or rise of a few mb today just isn't going to be able to give us clues to what happens in a 6-8+ days with this storm...the margin of error is hundreds of miles beyond 5 days. Thankfully, no area of the U.S. is in the forecast cone, and probably wouldn't be for a few days more, so a mb here or 5 mph there when the storm is 1700 miles from New Orleans and 2000 miles from Houston and Brownsville isn't going to give anything but a headache!
We could be doing this late next week into next weekend with this storm so folks don't burn out now when the time for micro-monitoring is days off potentially! That said, I will check back on Ernesto in the morning! LOL
Stormlover2012 wrote:This is the new update from jeff masters:
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto continues to be a major challenge to forecast. Despite the seemingly favorable conditions for intensification expected today through Tuesday, with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, many of our top computer models refuse to predict intensification, and in fact, weaken the storm. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the NOGAPS and GFDL show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. The ECMWF dissipates the storm. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a Category 1 or 2 hurricane in the Caribbean. The official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 1 hurricane between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is a reasonable compromise, but the uncertainty in this is high. It would not be a surprise to see Ernesto mysteriously degrade, or undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 hurricane off the coast of the Yucatan. Such is the state of modern hurricane intensity forecasting. Given that we don't have a very good idea of how strong Ernesto will become, making an accurate track forecast is hard. A stronger Ernesto will be more likely to feel the influence of a trough of low pressure moving to the north of the storm on Tuesday, which would pull the storm to the northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. This would likely result in a landfall in the U.S. A weaker Ernesto is more likely to head almost due west, resulting in a landfall Wednesday in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This is the more likely solution, given the recent behavior of the storm.
