ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone beginning to form - hot towers always do the trick

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

That ULL that was yesterday in the NW GOM is moving away right?

Last I heard, it is forecast to head south

[Dave]

[KWT]

Well GFDL is way too weak already but what is interesting is it does show how the center juts to the NE every now and then.

[gatorcane]

Pretty strong rotational signatures on some cells in Gulf WNW of Ft. Myers neading NNE at about 40 mph

I imagine very gusty winds in that signature. Let's see if it holds together as it moves towards Tampa. Is there any concern of some surge effects from this as far as Tampa Bay is concerned? Especially if the gfs verifies. I know systems that make landfall north of Tampa can cause issues esp with the sw flow building up water into the bay. Bayshore area comes to mind.

[Dave]

Ok need someone on hdobs starting with # 20. I'll grab 19 then have to go, should be back for this afternoon/evening mission if I miss the end of this one.

[KWT]

I am more concerned of a prolonged battering of heavy storm tides along the FL west coast (ala Elena) which will cause much damage and perhaps evacuations - If this becomes a hurricane and If it stalls and then slowly drifts to the E-NE like the GFS forecast.

Flooding for the Big Bend area and W.Florida is also a big threat, especially if the system does just sit there and slowly strengthen and keep a lop-sided look.

[tolakram]

Latest visible



Live java Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Live gulf loop: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... hannel=vis

[Dave]

Go ahead and pickup graphics HA. Thanks!

[linkerweather]

Pretty strong rotational signatures on some cells in Gulf WNW of Ft. Myers neading NNE at about 40 mph

I imagine very gusty winds in that signature. Let's see if it holds together as it moves towards Tampa. Is there any concern of some surge effects from this as far as Tampa Bay is concerned? Especially if the gfs verifies. I know systems that make landfall north of Tampa can cause issues esp with the sw flow building up water into the bay. Bayshore area comes to mind.

Coastal issues sure if GFS track verifies. Keep in mind, the GFS operational was indicating a more sheared system to move ENE Tuesday, looks like Debby is organizing a bit more than GFS depicted so that throws that off a bit.

As far as that cell to the SSW of the coast, it is still rotating a bit at the tail end of a very heavy rain squall. Even a few lightning strikes there too. COuld be a Pinellas coastal issue short term. Not a surge problem, but a waterspout/tornado issue.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241247
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 19 20120624
124000 2654N 08520W 8120 01830 //// +167 //// 235054 055 032 003 01
124030 2655N 08521W 8118 01832 //// +166 //// 233050 053 030 002 01
124100 2656N 08523W 8122 01826 //// +174 //// 231049 050 030 003 01
124130 2658N 08524W 8117 01831 //// +178 //// 230048 050 031 002 01
124200 2659N 08525W 8117 01828 //// +176 //// 228047 048 033 002 01
124230 2700N 08526W 8125 01820 //// +170 //// 225046 047 034 002 01
124300 2701N 08528W 8116 01827 //// +170 //// 222046 046 036 001 01
124330 2702N 08529W 8121 01821 //// +170 //// 221045 046 034 002 01
124400 2703N 08530W 8118 01822 //// +170 //// 221045 046 035 000 01
124430 2705N 08532W 8121 01819 //// +169 //// 220046 048 034 002 01
124500 2706N 08533W 8119 01820 //// +169 //// 221047 048 035 001 01
124530 2707N 08534W 8121 01818 //// +167 //// 221048 048 035 002 01
124600 2708N 08536W 8119 01818 //// +165 //// 221047 047 036 001 01
124630 2709N 08537W 8121 01815 //// +162 //// 222046 047 036 002 01
124700 2711N 08538W 8122 01811 //// +158 //// 223046 047 036 002 01
124730 2712N 08539W 8121 01813 //// +159 //// 225048 050 036 001 01
124800 2713N 08541W 8118 01814 //// +160 //// 225049 050 036 001 01
124830 2714N 08542W 8119 01811 //// +160 //// 226049 050 036 000 01
124900 2715N 08543W 8118 01811 //// +157 //// 229047 049 035 001 01
124930 2716N 08545W 8118 01811 //// +155 //// 229048 049 034 002 01
$$
;

Ok need someone to take over...planes on a SE to NW pass so watch for a VDM & a Drop after the pass. Thanks..back later on today.

[StormingB81]

Weather Channel hgas this at 60mph now and said expect additional intensification....wonder if we can see Hurricane Debby by tomorrow

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

I've got it Dave

[cycloneye]

Weather Channel hgas this at 60mph now and said expect additional intensification....wonder if we can see Hurricane Debby by tomorrow

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They have the info about the 12z Best Track.

AL, 04, 2012062412, , BEST, 0, 278N, 865W, 50, 994, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Rgv20]

0zECWMF Ensembles for being 72hrs out is all over the place with the placement of Debby. Anywhere from the western to eastern GOM!

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
----------------
Hurricane Andrew THREAT Outlook (HATO)
9am
Note: here is a definition of the categories.
RED means that a strong TS or hurricane could impact the area shortly, with winds, heavy rain, and other threats.

YELLOW means that a strong TS or hurricane could impact the area within 36 hours, and/or that a TS could effect the area in the shorter term with heavy rain, winds, and a tornado threat.

BLUE means that a weakish TS may effect the area within 36 hours, or that a TD/Weak TS is causing heavy rain, but lighter winds, and a tornado threat in the area.

YELLOW
-Coastline of southeastern Louisiana, and the coast of MS and AL, as well as the coast of the western FL panhandle.

BLUE
Western coast of FL, as well as the western portion of inland florida, and the rest of the panhandle not covered by a YELLOW.

Next Update: 11pm

Comments Appreciated.

[Air Force Met]

Weather Channel hgas this at 60mph now and said expect additional intensification....wonder if we can see Hurricane Debby by tomorrow

Just remember...whatever you see on the Weather Channel is just taking the info from the NHC. They aren't putting out their own intensity or their own intensity forecast. So when TWC says its 60...they are just quoting the NHC...and when TWC says to expect additional strengthening...again...quoting the NHC.

TWC doesn't go out on a limb. Not since John Hope left.

[StormingB81]

Weather Channel hgas this at 60mph now and said expect additional intensification....wonder if we can see Hurricane Debby by tomorrow

Just remember...whatever you see on the Weather Channel is just taking the info from the NHC. They aren't putting out their own intensity or their own intensity forecast. So when TWC says its 60...they are just quoting the NHC...and when TWC says to expect additional strengthening...again...quoting the NHC.

TWC doesn't go out on a limb. Not since John Hope left.

I know I just wanted to put a source out there. I didnt have anything to lonk so just atleast wanted to put a source.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[WeatherGuesser]

Flooding for the Big Bend area and W.Florida is also a big threat, especially if the system does just sit there and slowly strengthen and keep a lop-sided look.

Considering what they had a couple of weeks ago, I think this is the last thing they need.

[TheBurn]

12:30Z Vis/IR (Day/Night)




WV_Enhanced