ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[fci]

So what are the chances of this storm coming closer to Jamaica than the official track is predicting?

It could always happen, but I tend to believe that the NHC will forecast what they really believe will happen so I think the chances are not too good that it will get closer than the official track. But you never can say never.

[tolakram]

are they there yet?



how about now?

[ROCK]

rock.... do you think these models will start to swing right again and if so when do you think it will happen?

well your guess is as good as mine. All the globals want to bury in the Yucatan. 2 Dynamics want to take it North...all the models show a weak TS, wave and we all know that is not the case currently. Even the Dynamics show a weak system and still take it NORTH!!

IMO it is rapidly approaching cat 1 intensity. RECON will confirm here in a few. thinking 995mb right now....


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

are they there yet?



how about now?

Careful Mark or I'll hand it off to you!

[brunota2003]

Yes they are! Just open up the door and step out

[KWT]

Well we will know in a couple of hours the true strength of Ernesto! Looking forward to finding out given its current look.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I don't usually do this, but I think Ernesto deserves it. From now on, I am disregarding all the models and using my brain. Let's look...

We've got an intensifying tropical storm/hurricane passing through the Central Caribbean. As it intensifies, it will move ever so slightly northward. When the system is located in the NW Caribbean, we've got a weakness across the northern Gulf Coast that would pick up any intense hurricane. So let's backtrack.

Sea Surface Temperatures in the NW Caribbean are near 29C. Ocean Heat Content Values are over 140 kJ/cm^2. Wind shear will be 5 knots or less. The environment will be moist. All good conditions for rapid to explosive intensification into a major hurricane. So let's go forward.

A major hurricane in the NW Caribbean would tend to move more poleward anyways, not to mention the fact that a weakness would be located along the northern Gulf Coast. The storm would pass through the Yucatan Channel (or clip the northern Yucatan) and then enter the central Gulf of Mexico. After that time, the trough moves out and ridging begins to build back in, forcing anything in the Gulf to Louisiana.

That's my thinking. Take it for what it's worth.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042213
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 02 20120804
220500 1742N 06445W 9425 00648 0154 +222 +207 119025 027 /// /// 03
220530 1742N 06444W 9052 01001 0155 +203 +167 125028 029 /// /// 03
220600 1741N 06443W 8761 01293 0159 +197 +088 118025 028 /// /// 03
220630 1740N 06443W 8487 01566 0157 +178 +096 114024 025 /// /// 03
220700 1740N 06445W 8187 01874 0161 +151 +119 120024 025 /// /// 03
220730 1740N 06447W 7855 02223 0154 +134 +122 130025 027 /// /// 03
220800 1739N 06449W 7601 02489 0146 +125 +055 139029 031 /// /// 03
220830 1739N 06451W 7382 02733 0147 +115 -055 137031 031 /// /// 03
220900 1739N 06453W 7170 02979 0149 +100 -093 137034 034 /// /// 03
220930 1738N 06454W 6957 03229 0146 +088 -126 140034 034 /// /// 03
221000 1738N 06456W 6757 03469 0142 +075 -117 142037 039 /// /// 03
221030 1738N 06458W 6567 03703 0140 +062 -123 145036 038 /// /// 03
221100 1738N 06500W 6398 03917 0140 +047 -106 139034 034 /// /// 03
221130 1737N 06502W 6235 04135 0139 +035 -094 135032 034 /// /// 03
221200 1737N 06504W 6079 04339 0132 +022 -043 124027 030 /// /// 03
221230 1737N 06506W 5933 04531 0119 +012 -020 114024 027 /// /// 03
221300 1736N 06508W 5798 04705 0112 +002 -016 100023 023 025 003 03
221330 1736N 06510W 5634 04946 0115 -009 -037 098025 026 /// /// 03
221400 1736N 06512W 5513 05124 0113 -017 -062 091025 026 /// /// 03
221430 1735N 06514W 5404 05279 0286 -027 -083 095025 026 /// /// 03
$$
;

[KWT]

I suspect the NHC probably are being conservative with regards to the likely strength, when you get a decent TS in this part of the basin heading towards the W.Caribbean, they normally develop into decently strong hurricanes.

Interesting to see the raw Sat.estimates are now showing hurricane strength for Ernesto, that probably goes some way to explaining why the NHC thinks 50kts is conservative.

[ROCK]

18Z GFS same ole same ole.....no really any change to the 12Z...

[brunota2003]

If you haven't vote already...only 40 more minutes left until I "close" the poll. Note that this is for the highest *flight* level winds found during the entire mission!

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113247

And btw, Recon is airborne and enroute to Ernesto

[tolakram]

I'll post more as they get closer.

[KWT]

A major hurricane in the NW Caribbean would tend to move more poleward anyways, not to mention the fact that a weakness would be located along the northern Gulf Coast. The storm would pass through the Yucatan Channel (or clip the northern Yucatan) and then enter the central Gulf of Mexico. After that time, the trough moves out and ridging begins to build back in, forcing anything in the Gulf to Louisiana.

That's my thinking. Take it for what it's worth.

I'd be interesting to see what normally happens to a system in this location and strength at this time of the year. I'd imagine its a fairly even split between the Mexico route and a curve up to the NW into W/C Gulf regions. If anyone has that sort of info at hand I'd be most interested to see it!

[tolakram]

One more visible loop:

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 042222
97779 22224 70175 65800 60900 07023 60622 /8036
RMK AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 01
SWS = 19 KTS
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042224
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 03 20120804
221500 1735N 06516W 5290 05452 0296 -039 -095 100025 026 /// /// 03
221530 1734N 06518W 5183 05608 0305 -052 -101 099026 026 /// /// 03
221600 1734N 06520W 5089 05752 0312 -063 -110 096028 029 /// /// 03
221630 1734N 06522W 4987 05906 0319 -061 -116 099024 029 /// /// 03
221700 1733N 06524W 4884 06074 0330 -066 -111 101021 023 /// /// 03
221730 1733N 06526W 4807 06198 0338 -075 -114 091020 021 /// /// 03
221800 1733N 06528W 4729 06325 0345 -086 -117 087020 021 /// /// 03
221830 1732N 06531W 4665 06432 0351 -096 -120 079021 022 026 003 00
221900 1732N 06533W 4647 06463 0354 -100 -120 077022 022 027 002 00
221930 1732N 06535W 4652 06455 0354 -100 -121 075023 023 027 002 00
222000 1731N 06538W 4652 06457 0356 -100 -122 074023 023 026 002 00
222030 1731N 06540W 4654 06455 0356 -100 -122 074024 024 028 002 00
222100 1730N 06543W 4654 06455 0358 -100 -122 075025 026 029 002 00
222130 1730N 06546W 4655 06456 0359 -099 -123 070024 026 023 004 00
222200 1729N 06549W 4658 06451 0359 -097 -123 070023 024 028 002 00
222230 1728N 06551W 4656 06455 0359 -097 -125 071023 024 024 002 00
222300 1727N 06554W 4654 06456 0358 -097 -126 077024 025 028 002 00
222330 1726N 06556W 4654 06456 0358 -096 -127 076026 027 025 003 00
222400 1725N 06559W 4656 06453 0358 -095 -128 077028 028 026 004 00
222430 1724N 06602W 4656 06455 0359 -094 -127 075028 028 027 001 00
$$
;

[KWT]

The other thing to remember is that its inflow probably is being a little bit disrupted from SA, once it clears around 75W and the fetch from water becomes even larger I think that will help to reduce the plusing nature of the convection.

Pulsing is a feature of almost all TS as they approach Hurr; it's IMO less related to outer inflow and more related to still-disorganized centers and "throat-clearing".

Given a placement near the middle of the chute down the Caribbean, land disruption of inflow hundreds of miles from the center might inhibit a cat4 from reaching cat5, but it shouldn't inhibit a TS from reaching cat1.

Obiously its not the only factor, but I've seen land intercation from this far away combined with dry air elsewhere (in this case to the west) keep systems in check before and stopped them from bombing. I personally suspect as you say the lower level flow isn't as well organised as the Sat.imagery is suggesting at the moment.

[Rgv20]

the problem I have with that map is look at the weakness in the ridge....I mean you could drive a few million buses through that thing. YOU are going to tell me a TC will not respond to that?

The way I see it is that the GFS and ECMWF have very weak steering in the GOM (Trough does not dig deep enough to fully pick up Ernesto), if that were to verify Ernesto should respond by drastically slowing down in forward speed and turn to the NW. By next weekend the Texas Ridge is able to bend Ernesto back to the WNW.

EDIT:To include Graphic.

12zGFS forecast Valid for Friday Morning

[Shuriken]

I don't usually do this, but I think Ernesto deserves it. From now on, I am disregarding all the models and using my brain.

No! Anything but that....

- - - - -

[christchurchguy]

Seems to be lacking inflow to me compared with the ci outflow.
Obs showing straight east winds on all the ABC islands despite the center a few 100 miles away.