ATL: ISAAC - Models

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meriland23
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Re: Re:

#2561 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:58 pm

Jevo wrote:Here is a graphic they didnt show us

Image



That made me snort... I never snort LOL
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2562 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:09 pm

18Z NOGAPS that was mentioned in the discussion (which I have no idea why) is now in line with the 18Z GFS......so another big shift West!!

BTW- the NOGAPS has always been the right outlier....just sayin

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2563 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:14 pm

ROCK wrote:18Z NOGAPS that was mentioned in the discussion (which I have no idea why) is now in line with the 18Z GFS......so another big shift West!!

BTW- the NOGAPS has always been the right outlier....just sayin

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


dang, not good for NOLA/MS.. but if that is going to come to fruition it better start going NW pretty dang soon..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2564 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:15 pm

Actually that looks like the latest GFS run as well... interesting... maybe they are both garbage... I sure hope so..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2565 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:20 pm

What bizzare 18z model runs.. south florida landfall and then west to Mississippi/Louisiana
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2566 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:26 pm

Hot trend is west now ....gfs catching on
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2567 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:28 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Hot trend is west now ....gfs catching on


This run moved eastward in the beginning, has landfall in southern florida now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2568 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:30 pm

our met thats here in the upper texas coast and hes as good as it gets said that the trend is going to keep on coming west and that high pressure is going to build southeast and said that it doesnt matter how strong it gets it will keep trending west
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2569 Postby Zeno8 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:31 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Hot trend is west now ....gfs catching on


This run moved eastward in the beginning, has landfall in southern florida now.


"In the beginning" key
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2570 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:31 pm

Haha and they said the EURO was the wacky outlier right Rock? Lol. Where do you see landfall cone now? I say lake Charles to Pensacola but that's just my opinion.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2571 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:32 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Hot trend is west now ....gfs catching on


This run moved eastward in the beginning, has landfall in southern florida now.


More like brushed the South tip of Fl, strafed the west coast for some time, then got back in the GOM and headed towards the MS/LA coast.. well, at least from what I could tell of the run... but yes, it did impact Southern FL...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2572 Postby Christiana » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:32 pm

Hi Everybody! Long time reader, I continue to learn so much here! Thanks especially to the pro-mets who share their knowledge and expertise and also to posters like Rock and Jevo who bring a sense of humor to times such as this that can be incredibly stressful to those of us such as myself who feel quite anxious and scared at times like this. I have lost houses, businesses, and most heartbreaking of all, loved ones to these powerful phenomena and their deadly surges. :cry:

I have a question that I have not seen addressed, please pardon me if I just missed it somewhere, these boards move fast at times like this! I have seen some graphics posted that appear to show a swath of dry air over the northern gulf coast right now, in fact it was a beautiful day here today on the MGC! I know conditions are always changing but could that somehow still be present when (if) the storm nears this area and significantly weaken or even destroy it upon approach? I really don't want any part of this nor do I enjoy the suffering of others...and these things bring misery, complete misery.

Thanks in advance, now to fire up the Keurig! Not missing tonite's tropical version of America's Next Top Model! :cheesy:
Back to lurking and learning... 8-)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2573 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:33 pm

18z HWRF Initialized

Image

18z HWRF +24

Image

18z HWRF +48

Image
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#2574 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:34 pm

I think a lot of people are focusing on the final landfall because that is the one with potential to be a MUCH stronger system. I doubt it will be very strong when hitting South Florida after dealing with all the land it will cross to get there. On the other hand, it has nothing to traverse but very warm waters to make the trip from South Florida to the Northern Gulf Coast. So I think people focus on that but you are right, initial CONUS landfall is in Florida.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2575 Postby Big O » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:34 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:our met thats here in the upper texas coast and hes as good as it gets said that the trend is going to keep on coming west and that high pressure is going to build southeast and said that it doesnt matter how strong it gets it will keep trending west


What's his name?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2576 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:35 pm

Christiana wrote:
Not missing tonite's tropical version of America's Next Top Model! :cheesy:


LMAO! That is a good one. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2577 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:36 pm

18z HWRF +72

Image

18z HWRF +96

Image

Looks to follow the GFS on this run Initial CONUS landfall in SW Florida... 2nd Landfall still running
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2578 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:37 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
Christiana wrote:
Not missing tonite's tropical version of America's Next Top Model! :cheesy:


LMAO! That is a good one. :lol:


Awww man.. Im breaking out the Photoshop
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2579 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:38 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Haha and they said the EURO was the wacky outlier right Rock? Lol. Where do you see landfall cone now? I say lake Charles to Pensacola but that's just my opinion.



PM me and we can talk....keep the board clear.... :wink:


not going to rub it in about the EURO on here anyway.... 8-)
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#2580 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:38 pm

Expecting a rather large change in the track tonight. The trends aren't looking good for Louisiana.
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