ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[weatherwindow]

Pressure down to 941mbs now, looks like Sandy is indeed strengthening, and looking at it, its still tropical strengthening as well as convection is deepening again.

Recalling those earlier Euro forecast landfall pressures ...932mb, no way, now perhaps way

[Cyclenall]

Yep, I saw that. However it seems every time there is a VDM its never aligned to the Hdobs or whatever for Sandy which is another non-starter.

Don't shoot the messenger...


I think this is actually a new significant low for this specific reading.

It happened again.

[storm4u]

many people up here are talking about how pink the sky is

[tolakram]

Morning Visible



Live Java Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Live rapid scan loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php

Live Flash loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

[opticsguy]

Excerpt from KJFK forecaster discussion. A good summary. Scary

Potentially life threatening destructive storm surge event for the New Jersey and New York coasts.

Sandy appears to be getting ready to turn toward the northwest in
response to increasing upstream blocking as an upper high builds
westward into the Canadian Maritimes...and as the storm first
undergoes fujiwara interaction with and then merges with a digging
closed low to its west. This infusion of baroclinic energy will
enable Sandy to maintain or increase in intensity...transforming
into a severe Post-tropical cyclone and making landfall on the
central or southern New Jersey coast early this evening. The already large
wind field around Sandy should expand and intensify today...with
sustained winds of 35-45 miles per hour expected by middle to late
afternoon...and 40-55 miles per hour this evening. All nwp in pretty close
agreement on development and placement of a band of very strong
925 mb winds of 70-90 knots to the north of the cyclone by late
afternoon over our County Warning Area...especially across coastal sections.
A shallow mixed layer below that...in combination with possible
Gravity wave ducting just north of a warm front developing to the
northeast of Sandy...could allow a large portion of these strong
winds to mix down...especially in heavier rain...so at least
occasional gusts 60-75 miles per hour expected in NE-east flow during middle to
late afternoon before the storm makes landfall.


Of even greater concern is a second band of forecast 925 mb winds of
similar strength on the southeast flank of the cyclone that should rotate
up into the County Warning Area during and just after landfall this
evening...initially impacting southern CT and Long Island...then
translating westward into NYC metropolitan and the lower Hudson Valley.
Steepening low level lapse rates in this quadrant of the storm
as cold air advection begins just off the deck...but as low level warm air advection
continues...should lead to even more efficient momentum
Transfer...with the strongest winds expected along the south
shores of Long Island and CT where winds could gust 80 to perhaps
90 miles per hour. There may be a low end tornado threat across eastern
CT/Long Island during this time via strong low level helicity and
development of marginal low level cape...not enough for thunder
initially but enough for low-topped convection that could stretch
rotating updrafts and/or tap into higher momentum aloft.


Winds will slowly diminish overnight...but will still be gusting
up to 45-50 miles per hour at daybreak.


The combination of event duration...saturated grounds...and
partial to nearly full tree canopies...would cause widespread
Downing of trees and power lines...causing disruption to power and
possibly transit for at least several days. These winds will also
result in significant coastal impacts...detailed in The Tides and
coastal flooding section.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 71.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

[jaxfladude]

Hope Sandy is not as bad as it may well be, given all info that we have at our disposal. Bad feeling about this. Very bad.

[Crostorm]

Sea Ranch Resort Webcam in Kill Devil Hills, NC

http://www.visitob.com/webcams/sea-ranc ... vil-hills/

[KBBOCA]

Oh NO! I just checked out CERA for the latest storm surge maps and my hands are literally shaking. They have gotten so much worse.

Here's the map for NY Metro area:


Here's the map for the East Coast - look at St. John's Canada!!!


These are screen shots from my computer at about 11:30 UTC October 29, 2012.

EDIT: Ok, wxman57 informs me the color scale has changed since yesterday. That's good news. That means the surge forecast is not necessarily more severe. However anyway you look at it, a huge swath of the East Coast is now due for 10 foot+ storm surge. That's STILL life-threatening in many areas, I would think.

[Terry]

I've been watching that since yesterday. There is definitely more over-topping of the dunes this morning.

Sea Ranch Resort Webcam in Kill Devil Hills, NC

http://www.visitob.com/webcams/sea-ranc ... vil-hills/

[fashionella]

I finally got an account thanks to all for posting all the great info. I thought you would be interested in this link, I wanted to see where those cruiseships ended up...you can also check off "wind" and see those values


http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... level0=100

[KBBOCA]

Sorry, I should have included the link to the CERA website. It's here:
http://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera-nc/cera-nc.cgi

It's an amazingly useful site, except for the fact that right now it is terrifying me..., I've got so many friends and family in harm's way. Thankfully, most are taking this seriously.

[tomboudreau]

Spoke to my brother on LI. Both him and his wife employeers did not close today. She went to work. He is debating on what to do. They both live less then 5 minutes from their offices. He is seriously considering to staying home today and tomorrow. They finished up their precautions on Saturday and have been waiting for the shoe to fall as he put it to me this morning.

[BobHarlem]

This is a live cam from Ocean City, MD. Fager's island (the bay side of Ocean City) which is showing flooding.

[wxman57]

Oh NO! I just checked out CERA for the latest storm surge maps and my hands are literally shaking. They have gotten so much worse.

Here's the map for NY Metro area:
http://anglicanprayer.files.wordpress.c ... c-nyc1.png

Here's the map for the East Coast - look at St. John's Canada!!!
http://anglicanprayer.files.wordpress.c ... -coast.png

These are screen shots from my computer at about 11:30 UTC October 29, 2012.

Note that they changed the color for the upper end of the scale. The scale went to 16ft yesterday (red) and only 10ft today. Not much difference from yesterday. In fact, the projected surge for Long Island looks identical to yesterday, just a different color today.

[tolakram]

This is a live cam from Ocean City, MD. Fager's island (the bay side of Ocean City) which is showing flooding.

Great link. Here's some stills from that link.

[clipper35]

well here in southern new england it seems like it was hyped to much this is a typical noreaster for most of us with beach erosion and coastal flooding winds are not bad we have gust to 35 at times but sustained at 23/26 as far as tropical storm strength winds i doubt we will see them up here as big as this storm is the wind field for the tropical storm strength gusts has retracted to 452 miles from 542 last night and most of the tropical storm gusts are in the northwest part in the storm according to nhc recon yes the mid atlantic will get the brunt of this storm, as far as rain most forecasts up here are calling for scattered showers with a 1/2 inch to 1 inch rainfall amounts and yes most of u are saying its still early it will get bad maybe but most of the highways are packed with commuters going into work and most supermarkets and restaurants are open southern new england is seeing a classic noreaster this is typical for this part of the country the storm may be at a all time low pressure and that is historic....

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon just found a decent area of winds that support at least 90mph.

120830 3542N 07203W 6969 02774 9642 +080 +080 289023 025 083 004 01
120900 3541N 07204W 6958 02787 //// +075 //// 277021 025 081 004 01
120930 3540N 07206W 6972 02769 9641 +080 +080 261030 030 084 003 01
121000 3539N 07207W 6964 02785 9643 +090 +090 259030 031 084 003 01

[Weatherguy173]

surge already: http://www.nyharborwebcam.com/

[wxman57]

well here in southern new england it seems like it was hyped to much this is a typical noreaster for most of us with beach erosion and coastal flooding winds are not bad we have gust to 35 at times but sustained at 23/26 as far as tropical storm strength winds i doubt we will see them up here as big as this storm is the wind field for the tropical storm strength gusts has retracted to 452 miles from 542 last night and most of the tropical storm gusts are in the northwest part in the storm according to nhc recon yes the mid atlantic will get the brunt of this storm, as far as rain most forecasts up here are calling for scattered showers with a 1/2 inch to 1 inch rainfall amounts and yes most of u are saying its still early it will get bad maybe but most of the highways are packed with commuters going into work and most supermarkets and restaurants are open southern new england is seeing a classic noreaster this is typical for this part of the country the storm may be at a all time low pressure and that is historic....

Your worst will be tonight/tomorrow, not this morning (if you're in Rhode Island).