EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Dvorak says almost a cane.

24/0000 UTC 14.1N 107.6W T3.5/3.5 BUD -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Cyclenall]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram, added disclaimer

That wasn't a forecast tolakram, it was an observation.

I don't see any signs of RI happening, and convection tops are warming this morning. I'll keep watching though.

I have found in the past that when a TS is in this process, convection tops start really cold and then warm up as the organization increases rapidly...just like in the last Bud in the Epac July 2006. This doesn't always happen.

I think plenty of analysis has to be made to see what factors contributed to the not more stronger Bud than forecast with the enviromental conditions favorable.

In regards to the 5:00 am EDT advisory, I was astonished to find the intensity was left at 35 knots. Even moreso, the peak intensity at 36 hours was 50 knots when I thought at 3:00 am EDT it was already 50 knots! This must have stemmed from the position being estimated in the wrong place. Subjective Dvorak IMO has trouble during these scenarios. I'd say it was going through RI a bit before 2:00 am and then leveled off around 12:00 pm today.

Not sure whether or not Bud has an eye popping out or not. I mean, convection is firing around it and it looks like an eye. It has a fully constructed eyewall too.

*image cut*

It appeared to have a cloud-free center eariler too. It might be around 60 knots by now. What I don't get is why the cyclone is expanding and becoming larger despite model guidance keeping it tiny.

[brunota2003]

Looking at the BT, between 00Z 23 May and 00Z 24 May, Bud's intensity increased 25 knots...just barely missing qualifying for rapid intensification (RI is considered as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period).

[Stephanie]

I guess the models are thinking it'll moving towards the SE coast. Alberto started there. Interesting non-season so far.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looking at the BT, between 00Z 23 May and 00Z 24 May, Bud's intensity increased 25 knots...just barely missing qualifying for rapid intensification (RI is considered as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period).

A lot of that is due to the "jump" in intensity from 40 mph to 65 mph this morning. I doubt Bud was that weak to begin with.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the BT, between 00Z 23 May and 00Z 24 May, Bud's intensity increased 25 knots...just barely missing qualifying for rapid intensification (RI is considered as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period).

A lot of that is due to the "jump" in intensity from 40 mph to 65 mph this morning. I doubt Bud was that weak to begin with.

Remember that they may revise on post season.

[brunota2003]

Looking at the BT, between 00Z 23 May and 00Z 24 May, Bud's intensity increased 25 knots...just barely missing qualifying for rapid intensification (RI is considered as an increase of wind speed of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period).

A lot of that is due to the "jump" in intensity from 40 mph to 65 mph this morning. I doubt Bud was that weak to begin with.

They revised the BT earlier...though that is true. Depends on if they up the 00Z intensity or not (35 knots), they corrected the 06Z intensity to 45 knots this morning.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It looks like Bud has attained hurricane status. I am positive its eye is now clearing out and ADT numbers finally support a hurricane.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.6mb/ 72.2kt

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

[cycloneye]

Hopefully Bud doesn't weaken before the plane arrives on Thursday around 2000 UTC or 4 PM EDT,because it will be a very interesting mission to watch the data.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I have never tracked an EPAC recon that I remember.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

You can see the eye better here.

@cycloneye: I doubt it will weaken by then. In fact, it will probably be reaching its peak at that time.

[cycloneye]

I have never tracked an EPAC recon that I remember.

It will be a loooong flight from Keesler Base that departs at 10:15 AM EDT.You can follow the mission at the Bud recon thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112789&p=2224474#p2224474

[Yellow Evan]

Bud looks impressive tonight.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

More images of the eye clearing, CIMSS ADT T-Numbers skyrocketing, and the latest microwave pass that reveals a HUGE eye.

[Yellow Evan]

I have never tracked an EPAC recon that I remember.

It will be a loooong flight from Keesler Base that departs at 10:15 AM EDT.You can follow the mission at the Bud recon thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112789&p=2224474#p2224474

I've tracked tons of EPAC recons over the years (not that many for the Atlantic, I don't like it nearly as much), but I can't tomorrow because of something called school (unless the mission is not over by 21:30z, then I might get to see the end of it).

[cycloneye]

Trying to see!

[Yellow Evan]

Should be a hurricane soon, maybe not this adv, but at 09z, it is likely

[brunota2003]

Alright...I get to post my first RI forecast of this 2012 season.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The indicator is there, but it is a weaker version...however, I'm going to go with a 40 or 45 knot jump in wind speed over the next 24 hours. It looks to have first appeared in the 21Z to 22Z (5 pm EDT to 6 pm EDT) timeframe (the products finally updated), which would put RI beginning around approximately 03Z to 05Z (11 pm EDT to 1 am EDT). I believe the convection exploding in the bottom right is just the beginning, and it should continue to fire. The eye feature should become better defined and circular. Outflow is finally pushing away from Bud, and coupled with that convective burst, should finally push everything into overdrive.

Going off of the 8 pm EDT Best Track, wind speeds were 60 knots...so a 40 or 45 knot increase will put Bud at 100 or 105 knots by 8 pm EDT tomorrow.

This is my first prediction of the season, so I could be way off and Bud sputters and dies...or Bud could intensify only slightly...new season, need to refresh myself and get back into the grove of things.

[Kingarabian]

I think the NHC will jump the gun and make bud a hurricane.

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS divebombs a weakening low into the northern Florida peninsula (Volusia-Flagler Counties) at 108 hours