ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

Nothing I've seen (in either buoy obs or on radar) suggests that there are or were winds of 65 knots that were non-thunderstorm related (i.e. not a downburst, not a waterspout, etc). I do not believe that report to be representative of the storm itself. There have been some intense thunderstorms toward the core, with lots of lightning...so it would not surprise me if there were gusts in the 70s or 80s with some of those.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Alberto forms...more rainfall for the Carolinas? Florida impacts?
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... son-opens/

[Cyclenall]

When thinking about Alberto, just remember this:

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Alberto forms...more rainfall for the Carolinas? Florida impacts?
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... son-opens/

I see that 60 kt vector but it is in black so contaminated?

http://www.nrl.navy.mil/WindSat/data/wi ... e=20120519

[Aric Dunn]

center well south of convection and south of nhc track.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Alberto forms...more rainfall for the Carolinas? Florida impacts?
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... son-opens/

I see that 60 kt vector but it is in black so contaminated?

http://www.nrl.navy.mil/WindSat/data/wi ... e=20120519

This is what I was looking at:

[ozonepete]

center well south of convection and south of nhc track.

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg713/sc ... es=landing

You have the center nailed, Aric. That location (and the more southerly movement) is actually not a bad one at all of course. It gives it a better chance of staying east of the driest air and keeps it over the warmest water. It also keeps it away from the higher shear. Alberto is living right on the edge for the next day or two.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

When'd they say that?

EDIT: Ibsee, Facebook, never mind.

[stormhunter7]

i fell the overall radar structure is improving, but lack convection. More banding showing up and with alberto moving over warm gulf stream waters, it still has a window to improve some.. i think the euro model has done well with this system.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 66.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 72.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 60.8 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[SouthDadeFish]

Radar and satellite are telling two completely different stories. It is pretty apparent the mid-level center and low-level center are decoupled now.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
0300 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.4N 79.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 78.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH...63
KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H...DURING THE PAST HOUR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE INTENSITY OF ALBERTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER THIS
EVENING. WHILE AN EARLIER SHIP REPORT SUGGESTED THE STORM WAS
STRONGER...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BEEN ON THE
DECLINE SINCE THEN...WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS FROM THE
COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIP REPORT AND THE LOWER SATELLITE/RADAR
ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...MODERATE SHEAR ALONG
WITH PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF A DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM COULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME
WEAKENING...AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR
THE CONSENSUS.

ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...AS IT IS
BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN IN A
DAY OR SO...WITH A COMPLEX STEERING FLOW PROBABLY CAUSING THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS
MODEL CYCLE...THOUGH MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS STILL KEEP THE
STORM OFFSHORE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...THERE IS TOO LITTLE MARGIN FOR
ERROR TO NOT ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 31.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 31.4N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 31.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

[ozonepete]

Radar and satellite are telling two completely different stories. It is pretty apparent the mid-level center and low-level center are decoupled now.

I wouldn't say decoupled as much as just pretty tilted from the sfc to mid-levels from SE to NW. But the symmetry isn't that bad at all, looking at the overall circulation envelope on IR or RGB satellite. If convection can fire up again over the NE to SE quadrants overnight it could maintain pretty nicely.

[SouthDadeFish]

Radar and satellite are telling two completely different stories. It is pretty apparent the mid-level center and low-level center are decoupled now.

I wouldn't say decoupled as much as just pretty tilted from the sfc to mid-levels from SE to NW. But the symmetry isn't that bad at all, looking at the overall circulation envelope on IR or RGB satellite. If convection can fire up again over the NE to SE quadrants overnight it could maintain pretty nicely.

Well then it is one strong tilt You may very well be correct, I just think the jet to the S of Alberto is starting to make itself known on Alberto's circulation. The thing that would leave me optimistic is that radar presentation is still decent.

[tolakram]

Center completely exposed.

live loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

ir loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[tolakram]

Wind shear picking up as well.

[AHS2011]

and here it ends as quickly as it began

[MGC]

Amazing what the Gulf Stream can do.....Didn't expect this to develop this fast. Center is exposed so I'd be surprised if Alberto gets much stronger tonight. Nice way to kick off the season.....MGC