ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Live Visible Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Raebie]

Lovely. And I'm leaving for Hilton Head tomorrow for a week at the beach. Will the entire week be a washout?

[lebron23]

Long way to go

[ronjon]

Based on VIS SAT, I'd place the LLC near 30.5N-76W this morning based on the low cloud field turning. Still sheared with plenty of dry air but it should slowly wrap up and deepen the next 24 hrs. Being subtropical initially, I'd expect most of the heavy convection on the east and north sides. We'll know its transitioning once it wraps some convection around the west side of the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/flash-vis-long.html

[Aric Dunn]

although once it transitions it will not be as large. You could still fit a couple alberto's in it ..

[GCANE]

Unstable air backed off a little bit this morning over the Bahamas; but, now building back in.

CAPE currently at 4000

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=19#

[hurricanefloyd5]

looks like this system will miss florida all together the way things look right now. wee need rain


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[seahawkjd]

With that huge moisture shield and the low organizing and pulling back to the west, what kind of rain should central NC be looking at? A good steady rain would be welcome to start the summer off (sans it being enough to flood)

[jdray]

NWS JAX forecast

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBrie ... /index.htm



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[jonj2040]

With that huge moisture shield and the low organizing and pulling back to the west, what kind of rain should central NC be looking at? A good steady rain would be welcome to start the summer off (sans it being enough to flood)

for the 5 day total it looks like anywhere between .25 and .75 inches for cntrl NC

[wxman57]

The center already looks like it's nearing model-projected point for tomorrow morning. This increases the chance of it moving inland farther north. Maybe it'll just not slow down at all and be in eastern Canada by Sunday? Probably not...

No TD/TC/STS today, that's for sure. Probably tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

Well from what I have been tracking since last night. The low that left the bahamas is elongated but intact at about 29.5 N 75.5W ... but instead of heading NNE like the models have suggested the Surface low has been moving more ene. Unless another low forms farther north I dont really see it getting that far north. ITs quite easy to see its motion this morning on visible. The convection is still be blown off to the NNE but the low levels are clearly not. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[NDG]

looks like this system will miss florida all together the way things look right now. wee need rain

GFS and Euro are still persistent in bringing it into northern FL.
Yes, the heaviest rains may stay north of the Orlando area, but northern FL may get some good rains out of this, especially if it stalls like the models show for a couple of days.

[canes04]

May have something near 29.5 75.5

[hurricanefloyd5]

looks like this system will miss florida all together the way things look right now. wee need rain

GFS and Euro are still persistent in bringing it into northern FL.
Yes, the heaviest rains may stay north of the Orlando area, but northern FL may get some good rains out of this, especially if it stalls like the models show for a couple of days.

I live in seminole county so im north of orlando

[Bocadude85]

Well from what I have been tracking since last night. The low that left the bahamas is elongated but intact at about 29.5 N 75.5W ... but instead of heading NNE like the models have suggested the Surface low has been moving more ene. Unless another low forms farther north I dont really see it getting that far north. ITs quite easy to see its motion this morning on visible. The convection is still be blown off to the NNE but the low levels are clearly not. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The low you pointed out does seem to be moving more ENE then NE

[NDG]

looks like this system will miss florida all together the way things look right now. wee need rain

GFS and Euro are still persistent in bringing it into northern FL.
Yes, the heaviest rains may stay north of the Orlando area, but northern FL may get some good rains out of this, especially if it stalls like the models show for a couple of days.

I live in seminole county so im north of orlando

When I meant north of Orlando I meant north of greater Orlando area.

[wxman57]

Looks like several rotations on the satellite loop. Makes a big difference which center takes over. Could form a good bit farther north of where the models have been projecting if that northern center off the NC coast takes over.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like several rotations on the satellite loop. Makes a big difference which center takes over. Could form a good bit farther north of where the models have been projecting if that northern center off the NC coast takes over.

yep, guess we will have to just wait and see which of wins out. but the farther south seem awfully large to be absorbed anytime soon by that little swirl to the north.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like several rotations on the satellite loop. Makes a big difference which center takes over. Could form a good bit farther north of where the models have been projecting if that northern center off the NC coast takes over.

Glad you posted this wxman. I thought maybe I was seeing things that weren't there. I have the feeling that 94L will be "interesting" to watch and forecast throughout its' life.