ATL: ISAAC - Models

[meriland23]

from new GFS run, first enters the e carribean around 96 hrs

[Bocadude85]

120hrs passing south of DR

[Riptide]

from new GFS run, first enters the e carribean around 96 hrs

It's hauling ***, this is getting ridiculous; I've never seen a tropical cyclone move so quickly.

[cycloneye]

from new GFS run, first enters the e carribean around 96 hrs

It's hauling ***, this is getting ridiculous; I've never seen a tropical cyclone move so quickly.

That is why GFS doesn't show a strong hurricane in Eastern Caribbean as the past runs had.

[meriland23]

from new GFS run, first enters the e carribean around 96 hrs

It's hauling ***, this is getting ridiculous; I've never seen a tropical cyclone move so quickly.

True, well from another run assumed it would be there around 80hrs, so slower than some expect. I don't see how in the world this can turn into a hurricane at this pace..

[Hurricane Alexis]

Up to now the GFS is the same as the last run...moving at a fast pace towards the caribbean achieving nothing more than TS status.

[Riptide]

Up to now the GFS is the same as the last run...moving at a fast pace towards the caribbean achieving nothing more than TS status.

Whatever remains of the low-level vorticity gets destroyed by the islands, don't know if I want to invest anymore time tracking this one. The euro could bring me back on board for development, have a feeling it won't change it's tune though.

[Hurricaneman]

Up to now the GFS is the same as the last run...moving at a fast pace towards the caribbean achieving nothing more than TS status.

Whatever remains of the low-level vorticity gets destroyed by the islands, don't know if I want to invest anymore time tracking this one. The euro could bring me back on board for development, have a feeling it won't change it's tune though.

Well the 0zGFS avoids Hispaniola which would be a plus for this system, but it never develops that much and somehow ends up west of Jamaica, probably destined for the Gulf

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Riptide]

Up to now the GFS is the same as the last run...moving at a fast pace towards the caribbean achieving nothing more than TS status.

Whatever remains of the low-level vorticity gets destroyed by the islands, don't know if I want to invest anymore time tracking this one. The euro could bring me back on board for development, have a feeling it won't change it's tune though.

Well the 0zGFS avoids Hispaniola which would be a plus for this system, but it never develops that much and somehow ends up west of Jamaica, probably destined for the Gulf

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

According to the GFS, it's just another TD7-type event; essentially a non-event due to whatever negative environmental conditions it is seeing.

[meriland23]

It dissipates completely at 144

[hurricanetrack]

Wow. From major hurricane look to the GFS to a puff of clouds in just a few runs. Something is amiss in the tropics.....again.

[Hurricaneman]

It dissipates completely at 144

Nope, its WSW of Jamaica

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal144.gif

[Riptide]

It dissipates completely at 144

Nope, its WSW of Jamaica

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal144.gif

Yep, and it's destination is central america.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Just south of central Cuba as a weak low at 174 hrs.

[Riptide]

The original 850mb vorticity continues north into Cuba, you can see it quite clearly.

[meriland23]

but it is just a low, don't even think the warm waters of the gulf will push it

[Hurricaneman]

Well when I said that it not hitting Hispaniola head on was a good thing for the system, its close proximity could be problematic for it as the GFS shows

[Riptide]

Well when I said that it not hitting Hispaniola head on was a good thing for the system, its close proximity could be problematic for it as the GFS shows

It appears that the remnants of 94L affect South Florida significantly after it degenerates on the GFS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Well when I said that it not hitting Hispaniola head on was a good thing for the system, its close proximity could be problematic for it as the GFS shows

It appears that the remnants of 94L affect South Florida significantly after it degenerates on the GFS.

What do you mean by significant when it's just a remnant low?

[Bocadude85]

Well when I said that it not hitting Hispaniola head on was a good thing for the system, its close proximity could be problematic for it as the GFS shows

It appears that the remnants of 94L affect South Florida significantly after it degenerates on the GFS.

Yea the gfs shows the remnants of 94l coming ashore in south florida