ATL: SANDY - Models

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chaser1
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#261 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:01 pm

WYNweather wrote:Thanks for the link. You More then welcome up here will be having a few adult beverages myself. Will be watching bunch of 7 figure yachts try not to touch each other at the show on Friday.


Now, that sounds like my kind of weekend!!!!
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#262 Postby ROCK » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:25 pm

um...since we need to stay on topic here is the 18Z NOGAPS for fun..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


looks like the EURO.....time for you EC folks to start taken this seriously...
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#263 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:31 pm

ROCK wrote:um...since we need to stay on topic here is the 18Z NOGAPS for fun..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


looks like the EURO.....time for you EC folks to start taken this seriously...

Yikes...at least 12 hours of winds pumping waters down Long Island Sound, straight into NYC! Then landfall over LI and it just sits there in Eastern NY and spins down.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#264 Postby ROCK » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:51 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
ROCK wrote:um...since we need to stay on topic here is the 18Z NOGAPS for fun..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


looks like the EURO.....time for you EC folks to start taken this seriously...

Yikes...at least 12 hours of winds pumping waters down Long Island Sound, straight into NYC! Then landfall over LI and it just sits there in Eastern NY and spins down.



yep.....its the water that I am concerned about....
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#265 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:52 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
ROCK wrote:um...since we need to stay on topic here is the 18Z NOGAPS for fun..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


looks like the EURO.....time for you EC folks to start taken this seriously...

Yikes...at least 12 hours of winds pumping waters down Long Island Sound, straight into NYC! Then landfall over LI and it just sits there in Eastern NY and spins down.


Comes pretty close to Se Florida also
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#266 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:53 pm

00z GFS is rolling

pretty much textbook with the prior runs through 72 hours
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#267 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:54 pm

Image
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#268 Postby T'Bonz » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:54 pm

Yep. The storm looks a bit larger this run though.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#269 Postby ROCK » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:56 pm

a storm that size is going to be pushing massive anount of water... :eek:
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#270 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:10 pm

it like models want take it closer south fl and east coast
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#271 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:35 pm

Im going to say this but the 0zGFS is moving this storm through a block which is almost impossible unless there is a weakness that I'm just not seeing so because of that I'm personally going to discount the GFS and go with the Euro until it changes track
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#272 Postby ROCK » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:35 pm

0Z NOGAPS....little further west on this run but ends up the same place... :eek: not good for the EC....not good for NYC...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#273 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:40 pm

ROCK wrote:0Z NOGAPS....little further west on this run but ends up the same place... :eek: not good for the EC....not good for NYC...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


NOGAPS keeps going west, this time showing a Central Florida landfall. How west will it go?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#274 Postby ROCK » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:43 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
ROCK wrote:0Z NOGAPS....little further west on this run but ends up the same place... :eek: not good for the EC....not good for NYC...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


NOGAPS keeps going west, this time showing a Central Florida landfall. How west will it go?



well the NOGAPS is liked by the Doc Masters...but after a storm has formed. My point is it is following the EURO and GFS now...consensus? getting there IMO....
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#275 Postby stephen23 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:45 pm

00z Gfs also starts the east coast trend at end of run showing landfall just above NE
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#276 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:47 pm

actually looking at the 0zGFS, the low to its east partially connects its circulation to Sandy's circulation and pulls it east, but the GFS model runs seem to slowly be decreasing this interaction and moving towards the Euro which if so could mean a pretty significant system for the NEUS
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#277 Postby stephen23 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:53 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:actually looking at the 0zGFS, the low to its east partially connects its circulation to Sandy's circulation and pulls it east, but the GFS model runs seem to slowly be decreasing this interaction and moving towards the Euro which if so could mean a pretty significant system for the NEUS



Yes I was able to see what you are talking about. It connected for a bit then pulled back east in very end of run hitting just above NE
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#278 Postby stephen23 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:55 pm

stephen23 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:actually looking at the 0zGFS, the low to its east partially connects its circulation to Sandy's circulation and pulls it east, but the GFS model runs seem to slowly be decreasing this interaction and moving towards the Euro which if so could mean a pretty significant system for the NEUS



Yes I was able to see what you are talking about. It connected for a bit then pulled back east in very end of run hitting just above NE


Day 8 it looks like
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#279 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:04 am

i heard nogap not very good for tropical casting
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#280 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:11 am

All but three ensemble members showing east coast as well. Earlier today it was 12 east coast, 8 out to sea
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