ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Ernesto is looking great. I love the structure of the storm and anxiously am following recon.

[gqhebert]

I'm just going to say it now...don't care if nobody agrees. Ernesto WILL be a hurricane at 8pm. It IS one now. I am sorry if I am offending anyone...or if anyone makes anything based on what I've said. This is completely my opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

best looking storm Ive seen in a while......Im waiting for an eye to pop out

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

To edit your signature, click on "User Control Panel" in the top left. In the bar on the left, click Proile, and then Edit Signature.

[wxwatcher1999]

I'll delete this after I get a response..how can I add disclaimer to my signature?

i have been just copying and pasting from the disclaimer in the yellow box

[tolakram]

[southerngale]

I'm just going to say it now...don't care if nobody agrees. Ernesto WILL be a hurricane at 8pm. It IS one now. I am sorry if I am offending anyone...or if anyone makes anything based on what I've said. This is completely my opinion.

Please provide proof that "it IS one now." Otherwise, please refrain from such matter of fact statements. If and when it becomes a hurricane, the proof of that will be posted. Also, add the disclaimer to such predictions / bold statements as well.

[christchurchguy]

Im wondering how tight that core is?

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 042252
97779 22524 70166 68309 60900 10035 59593 /8034
RMK AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 02
SWS = 31 KTS
;

[tolakram]

I'll delete this after I get a response..how can I add disclaimer to my signature?

No need to delete.

Just above your posting box is the disclaimer. Copy and paste it. If you can't remember to add it copy and past it into your signature to make it always show up.

[Dave]

If you have a guess as to what Recon will find during their trip through Ernesto...then vote here:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113247

NOTE: This is the max wind speed that recon will find *at FLIGHT level* the entire mission! Not the first pass!

This is your 2 minute warning...that includes you, vb!

HEY I had to reboot just now...I get extra time!!!

[brunota2003]

I need one more vote to make it an even 40

[tolakram]

Is it there yet?

It's about this time I get scared to death they will have an equipment issue.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Recon should be very telling as it heads towards center.

[AJC3]

Honestly, I really don't see this as being the case. Looks like a moderate intensity tropical storm, as it's being called.

You are right, of course. I guess a lot of people are just feeling the excitement. It surely doesn't look like a hurricane yet. But it sure looks like the diurnal min is over (right on schedule since the sun is setting down there now) and the convection is starting to burst over the center again. It also really looks like this convective blowup will be quite impressive tonight since more defined banding is starting to occur and it's moving over ever warmer SSTs with shear really dropping. So in effect it has "that look" of a TS about to take off, and that probably also makes people prematurely call it a hurricane. In my mind this will make hurricane sometime tomorrow morning. I think all systems are go now.

Oh, and you can put me down as one who thinks this will be a major hurricane in the western Caribbean.

In reality, it truly does appear to be at hurricane intensity. UW-CIMSS ADT agrees with this.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.6mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.1 4.1

In reality, automated ADT <<<< manual subjective Dvorak classification, which was 3.0 last time I checked. If you ask anyone who has spent a decent amount of time analyzing satellite and M/I data, to a person I doubt you'd get anyone to say this has the appearance of a hurricane.

[pledger28]

I am a complete amatuer. With that being said I have a question. How would a person KNOW that something is a hurricane without the NHC or any other ageny or models saying so? Is there a way to tell by looking at radar or bouye temps? I am so confused as to where this type of information was gotten from. I am not being coy but am truly curious.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042303
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 07 20120804
225500 1633N 06833W 4655 06440 0344 -084 -088 107034 034 032 003 00
225530 1632N 06835W 4677 06408 0345 -079 -086 106034 035 034 002 00
225600 1631N 06837W 4860 06112 0332 -065 -072 106037 039 034 002 00
225630 1630N 06840W 5046 05818 0315 -050 -054 105036 038 035 002 00
225700 1629N 06842W 5230 05543 0298 -035 -037 108034 035 035 001 00
225730 1627N 06844W 5421 05260 0282 -010 -010 117036 036 034 002 01
225800 1626N 06846W 5620 04973 0105 +000 +000 117036 037 036 002 01
225830 1625N 06849W 5830 04667 0119 +000 +000 108034 036 036 002 01
225900 1624N 06851W 6008 04429 0132 +010 +010 105031 032 035 002 01
225930 1623N 06853W 6204 04169 0135 +026 +024 105032 033 035 000 00
230000 1622N 06855W 6405 03901 0126 +043 +026 109035 035 034 001 00
230030 1621N 06857W 6601 03656 0122 +062 +027 112032 035 035 002 00
230100 1620N 06859W 6803 03407 0121 +078 +028 114032 033 035 000 00
230130 1619N 06901W 7004 03166 0125 +094 +001 121037 038 034 001 00
230200 1618N 06903W 7217 02915 0123 +111 +007 123037 038 033 001 00
230230 1618N 06905W 7431 02670 0126 +121 +037 128037 038 033 001 00
230300 1617N 06906W 7640 02436 0130 +132 +028 132037 038 033 002 00
230330 1616N 06908W 7853 02206 0133 +147 +035 134039 039 033 002 00
230400 1615N 06910W 8081 01960 0131 +164 +029 132040 041 034 001 00
230430 1614N 06912W 8286 01745 0131 +167 +085 133039 040 033 001 00
$$
;
Descending....

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I believe recon is descending in the center now.

[Portastorm]

I am a complete amatuer. With that being said I have a question. How would a person KNOW that something is a hurricane without the NHC or any other ageny or models saying so? Is there a way to tell by looking at radar or bouye temps? I am so confused as to where this type of information was gotten from. I am not being coy but am truly curious.

The post in question was an opinion and nothing more. It's a hurricane if the NHC says so. Otherwise, no. That is why we have the disclaimers.

[Dave]

Is it there yet?

It's about this time I get scared to death they will have an equipment issue.

Descending now..hold your breath!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I am a complete amatuer. With that being said I have a question. How would a person KNOW that something is a hurricane without the NHC or any other ageny or models saying so? Is there a way to tell by looking at radar or bouye temps? I am so confused as to where this type of information was gotten from. I am not being coy but am truly curious.

I was being stupid it is a matter of my opinion.
Kinda guessing based on recon so far with winds of about 48 mph. And satellite appearance.