ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Frank P]

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I think you can get an idea of what the 11pm track will look like if you look at the OFCI plot.. looks like they shifted the track a little east closer to S. Fla and then shifted it west with a end point south of Pensacola

Yeah and if you extrapolate that it looks very close to going into Mobile bay, certainly not good for Pensacola either...

I should have said just east of Mobile bay...

[SunnyThoughts]

Jevo = Brilliant, Bravo!

Interesting obs on center reformations, I confess however that I am -removed- a big huge loud POOF. Bones w/b my new bff.

Anxious to see the outcome of the recon data on the model runs.

I'm -removed- that poof right along with you...wishing so so hard.

[GTStorm]

I agree, the west shift members do appear to be far too intolerant, aric is right there are alot of variables yet unseen. Mods need to clean this up, IMO

I don't know if I'd go so far as to call them intolerant....annoying, yes, but intolerant? Not quite.

We won't see the impact of the giv data until the 00z models come out, which will be about 11:30 pm edt, correct?

[Hurricane Andrew]

I agree, the west shift members do appear to be far too intolerant, aric is right there are alot of variables yet unseen. Mods need to clean this up, IMO

I don't know if I'd go so far as to call them intolerant....annoying, yes, but intolerant? Not quite.

We won't see the impact of the giv data until the 00z models come out, which will be about 11:30 pm edt, correct?

Some are already out.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the nam first ( not for track but for the ridging ) then gfs, nogaps around 1130 then cmc around 1 and the gfdl, hwrf 2 and euro will finish around 3

[SunnyThoughts]

From Twitter:

HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 #Isaac: On east-west pass, lightning display here. Winds at flight-level from east, suggesting flight-level center is south of us.

These poor guys still can't pinpoint the center.. Going to be interesting to see what the 0z runs initialize with

I've heard in the past, that if lightning is present during a hurricane/tropical storm..it either means its intensifying..or actually diminishing in intensity. Not sure how reliable that is, so maybe someone with more knowledge than I have, can address that issue.

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree, the west shift members do appear to be far too intolerant, aric is right there are alot of variables yet unseen. Mods need to clean this up, IMO

I don't know if I'd go so far as to call them intolerant....annoying, yes, but intolerant? Not quite.

We won't see the impact of the giv data until the 00z models come out, which will be about 11:30 pm edt, correct?

I realize my words were harsh yes, but one Guy was citing a model run from last Sunday as evidence. This sort of thing cannot be tolerated it confuses newer members that's just my opinion.

[GTStorm]

I agree, the west shift members do appear to be far too intolerant, aric is right there are alot of variables yet unseen. Mods need to clean this up, IMO

I don't know if I'd go so far as to call them intolerant....annoying, yes, but intolerant? Not quite.

We won't see the impact of the giv data until the 00z models come out, which will be about 11:30 pm edt, correct?

Some are already out.

I guess I was thinking the gfs and the euro. That seems to be the headliner bout of the evening that everyone is waiting on.

[Aric Dunn]

just take a look at this. you can clearly see the progression. the recurve was suppose to happen east of florida then florida and for the last 2 days has been between LA and east coast of florida. thats consistency. also pay attention to how many times the gfs ensemble members should texas solutions. point being you cant take any model run to heart yet after 48 hours. frame 65 the 12z runs on the 21st is the first real time the gfs was eastern gulf. that is consistent.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=09

[MidnightRain]

What are the chances models are in TX/MX in 24-36 hours? IMO its possible with this trend.

[ronjon]

Did anyone notice how much faster both the 18z GFDL and GFS runs with Issac are now? Having the storm into S FL/Keys by Sunday morning or afternoon. Also, the GFDL shows 2 low centers till he emerges off the NW coast of Haiti tomorrow afternoon. Doesn't intensify the storm till sliding along the north coast of Cuba. I think speed of this system will play a big role in potential impacts to FL - faster and its near certain to impact S FL before the atlantic ridge builds back in.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/18zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html

[HurricaneBrain]

What are the chances models are in TX/MX in 24-36 hours? IMO its possible with this trend.

Maybe upper TX coast.

[tolakram]

Ok folks, this is the models thread so we need to limit discussion to model runs. Lots of posts in here would really do better in the main discussion thread. Thanks.

[ronjon]

Quite a few GFS ensemble members now running thru S FL and more tightly clustered. The operational run is now on the west side of the ensemble members. I think what might happen here is that the track may shift east for the first 72 hrs and then more W-NW after that as the ridge builds in. Issac may still get close to Tampa before turning W-NW.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=9&year=2012&title=09

[drezee]

Before you say it...yes, I know it is the NAM, but this is the first main model with the G-IV data...it is left of the 12z run

[Jevo]

0z NAM +69

[Jevo]

Before you say it...yes, I know it is the NAM, but this is the first main model with the G-IV data...it is left of the 12z run

NAM is great with synoptics

[deltadog03]

I know its the NAM BUT that is a pretty big weakness......



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[Aric Dunn]

I know its the NAM BUT that is a pretty big weakness......

[mg]http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/6400/00znamhr72.gif[/img]

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yes that is.

[Jevo]

I know it's the NAM but.. (had to keep with the theme)

0z NAM +84 So this has the G-Iv data..? That's one heck of an alley