ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 291439
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 29/14:15:20Z
B. 37 deg 30 min N
071 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2579 m
D. 53 kt
E. 353 deg 3 nm
F. 082 deg 60 kt
G. 317 deg 28 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 8 C / 3045 m
J. 16 C / 3053 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 2318A SANDY OB 28
MAX FL WIND 94 KT SE QUAD 10:14:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 176 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Stephanie]

940.4 mb

unreal

Guess the models, especially the Euro, weren't so crazy after all.

Sandy looks to be over the warmer Gulfstream waters for a few more hours. Yikes!

Yep.

Local news was showing people walking through knee-deep water in Cape May, NJ ALREADY. They are not going to be able to get out now even if they wanted to. Atlantic City has water through the city streets.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

Watching history unfold in front of our eyes...No words..Just Awe..

[SouthDadeFish]

The core REALLY warmed up according to that last VDM... More intensification on the way?

[KBBOCA]

This is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

Or, I fear, a Tsunami in slow motion...

[x-y-no]

The core REALLY warmed up according to that last VDM... More intensification on the way?

The center is crossing the Gulf Stream.

[Terry]

I have a friend who is still out there in the Wildwood area. Not good. Brian Norcross just said that anyone in that area needs to get to higher ground asap.

940.4 mb

unreal

Guess the models, especially the Euro, weren't so crazy after all.

Sandy looks to be over the warmer Gulfstream waters for a few more hours. Yikes!

Yep.

Local news was showing people walking through knee-deep water in Cape May, NJ ALREADY. They are not going to be able to get out now even if they wanted to. Atlantic City has water through the city streets.

[Stephanie]

Terry - they are showing all kinds of knee deep flooding already in Cape May and up the NJ shore coastline. Tell him/her, BEG HIM/HER, to get the hell out now!

[Downdraft]

I do not believe there is any historical record for a hurricane intensifying inside of a northeaster. A category 1 storm with a pressure close to 943 mb? Unbelievable actually. Brian Norcross on the Weather Channel says this will obliterate the New Jersey shore.

[tolakram]

Live flash loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... display=50

latest image

[KBBOCA]

This is a comment I posted on two blogs which I frequent that have a lot of readers on the East Coast. I can edit if need be, as those sites allow comment editing.

Would pro mets here let me know if this seems an accurate analysis? I'm trying to help warn people who may be in danger and still have time to get out of harm's way.

***

One of the things I think people fail to appreciate with this storm is its EXTREME LOW PRESSURE.

The latest recon flight (14:00 GMT Oct 29) has just found pressure of approx 940mb.

The record low pressure for the area was previous 946mb in the “Long Island Express” hurricane of 1938. Other areas like Baltimore or Richmond, the previous record low pressures are around 960 – 970. Don’t know yet for Boston or further north, still need to research.

So basically this is like a “Category 3″ or worse storm, even though it “only” has “Category 1″ winds. It has the potential to do severe damage.

The other very unique thing about this storm is its massive size. Last night the hurricane was producing tropical force winds in Bermuda and North Carolina (830 miles apart) SIMULTANEOUSLY!!! Unheard of.
I *think* Sandy is now the largest storm on record in the Atlantic. (I need to verify that, but she is certainly in the top 3.)

What that means is twofold.
1) Sandy is pushing a HUGE HUGE HUGE amount of water forward. Her storm surge potential is currently estimated by the NHC / NOAA to be at a level of 5.8 on a 0 – 6 scale. WORSE THAN KATRINA.

2) There will be SUSTAINED tropical force winds over most of the area (all of NJ, NYC, Long Island, Philly, CT, etc.) for probably 24 hours or more.

Finally, it is the ANGLE OF SANDY’s LANDFALL with the coast that makes her exceptionally dangerous to NYC. She is expected to come in with a hard left turn into central NJ, thus basically coming in perpendicular and continuing W – NW. That is nearly unheard of, and what it will mean is that she will push a massive wall of water NORTH into NY Harbor & Long Island sound.

This is quite a combination of “worst-case scenarios” I’m afraid. ANYONE IN A FLOOD ZONE needs to take extreme precautions and heed any evacuation orders!!

I’m not an expert, but I’ve been a hurricane geek for nearly 40 years, and I’ve been monitoring this storm nearly non-stop since Friday afternoon.

Please pay attention to NHC and NWS and local officials. But please believe me that this is a storm that must be taken extremely seriously!

[Terry]

Terry - they are showing all kinds of knee deep flooding already in Cape May and up the NJ shore coastline. Tell him/her, BEG HIM/HER, to get the hell out now!

He is civil defense and I doubt he'll leave.

[clifman]

I really don't get the lack of Watches/Warnings from the NHC. It's still a hurricane, right? Barrelling directly at the NJ coast, and the only thing they have up (as has been the case for some time) is a TS warning for NC. Can anyone explain the thinking here. I understand that this is a 'hybrid' and is expected to go 'extra tropical'. But the NHC is still tracking it and publishing their 5 day cone, so why the lack of watches/warnings?

[MiamiensisWx]

I do not believe there is any historical record for a hurricane intensifying inside of a northeaster. A category 1 storm with a pressure close to 943 mb? Unbelievable actually. Brian Norcross on the Weather Channel says this will obliterate the New Jersey shore.

The 1991 Perfect Storm in October also intensified in a similar evolution, if I recall correctly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Perfect_Storm

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon just found 937.5mb now

[clipper35]

any chance this gets to cat2 before the coast or colder water temps

[Stephanie]

I do not believe there is any historical record for a hurricane intensifying inside of a northeaster. A category 1 storm with a pressure close to 943 mb? Unbelievable actually. Brian Norcross on the Weather Channel says this will obliterate the New Jersey shore.

With the build up of housing/condos, casinos, etc. along the shore, this will be devastating. A lot of people do live down there year-round.

[tolakram]

I really don't get the lack of Watches/Warnings from the NHC. It's still a hurricane, right? Barrelling directly at the NJ coast, and the only thing they have up (as has been the case for some time) is a TS warning for NC. Can anyone explain the thinking here. I understand that this is a 'hybrid' and is expected to go 'extra tropical'. But the NHC is still tracking it and publishing their 5 day cone, so why the lack of watches/warnings?

It won't be a hurricane when it hits land, and according to protocol this would require dropping hurricane warnings. The NHC discussion has explained this fact in every advisory. They are coordinating with local NWS offices to handle wind and flood warnings.

[Stephanie]

Terry - they are showing all kinds of knee deep flooding already in Cape May and up the NJ shore coastline. Tell him/her, BEG HIM/HER, to get the hell out now!

He is civil defense and I doubt he'll leave.

No, he can't and won't. Thank him for me. We're going to need him and all of the civil defense, National Guard and outside help we can get, I'm afraid.

[CrazyC83]

There needs to be a Service Assessment in 2013 to figure things out, and perhaps chance protocol.