ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[mcheer23]

Way too early to say that. When it starts slowing down everything changes.

The only model left with the turn is GFDL..i think

[Hammy]

Its looking doubtful that its going to slow down at this point. And I'm guessing that it has never been stronger than 50 mph so far, both times it was upgraded a bit the recon data showed a weaker system. Personally I'm leaning more towards the GFS forecast, it's looking less likely for this to become a hurricane

disclaimer: personal opinion and not official

[KWT]

Way too early to say that. When it starts slowing down everything changes.

Yep your right about that, though a weaker and faster moving system should mean it ends up further west than is currently expected, as per the ECM solution.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050013
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 14 20120805
000500 1457N 07200W 8429 01568 0078 +198 +137 355004 005 022 001 00
000530 1456N 07201W 8430 01568 0079 +198 +137 334003 004 022 003 00
000600 1455N 07202W 8428 01571 0080 +196 +146 318004 005 022 003 00
000630 1454N 07204W 8430 01568 0083 +189 +159 327006 007 019 001 00
000700 1453N 07205W 8429 01572 0086 +187 +163 334008 008 016 001 00
000730 1451N 07206W 8426 01574 0089 +183 +167 344008 009 018 001 00
000800 1450N 07207W 8432 01569 0091 +170 +170 341009 009 017 002 01
000830 1449N 07208W 8429 01573 0092 +170 +170 339010 010 015 003 01
000900 1448N 07210W 8429 01574 0093 +180 +180 356008 009 018 003 01
000930 1446N 07211W 8427 01574 0095 +180 +180 014010 013 021 005 01
001000 1445N 07212W 8430 01568 0090 +175 +173 359010 012 020 002 00
001030 1444N 07213W 8433 01565 0085 +180 +175 001009 010 017 003 00
001100 1443N 07214W 8428 01568 0084 +181 +171 001011 011 015 003 00
001130 1441N 07216W 8430 01567 0088 +180 +165 356011 012 014 002 00
001200 1440N 07217W 8428 01569 0087 +180 +162 360011 011 017 002 00
001230 1439N 07218W 8430 01567 0085 +180 +162 006011 012 016 002 00
001300 1438N 07219W 8430 01566 0084 +184 +157 001010 011 012 004 00
001330 1436N 07221W 8432 01566 0085 +182 +161 003011 012 015 002 00
001400 1435N 07222W 8429 01569 0087 +181 +159 003010 012 013 003 00
001430 1434N 07223W 8428 01571 0085 +185 +149 009010 010 014 002 00
$$
;

[Shuriken]

Convection looks very impressive but the lower level structure looks rather poor. It'll be interesting to see what recon shows over the next hour or so, but the circulation almost certainly is on the W/NW side of the convection.

That would correspond with the convective burst being an "eyewall seed" located at the best inflow juncture on the eastern side of the LLC. As the system intensifies, the convection will either orbit the LLC and close it off, or it will develop a mid-level center and suck the LLC under it. Either of these scenarios can play out very fast (read: hours) this time of year.

(It's a pity they don't have, or don't release, radar imagery from recon. Hmm.... I wonder much trouble it would be to install a 37 ghz microwave on an Orion.....)

[Nimbus]

Those convective puffs are getting really deep that was probably the deepest burst we have seen with this system thus far.

09 GMT 08/04/12 14.1N 67.2W 60 1001 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/04/12 14.4N 68.7W 50 1008 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/04/12 14.8N 70.1W 60 1003 Tropical Storm
And now 15.0N 71.8W

Looks like just a step pattern but forward speed was estimated at 18MPH earlier so its slowing?

[Nederlander]

Lol I can't believe some of these posts. A couple of hours ago I was reading guarantees of an impending RI and now everyone is throwing in the towel on Ernesto. Tomorrow was going to be "the day" all along. Too many knee-jerk reactions here. IMO, SE LA to MX is all still in play. Ernesto will still feel the weakness if he strengthens significantly tomorrow.. Not smart to rule out a gulf coast hit.

Edit: He should start slowing down some more in the next 24-48 hours and when he does, that's when Ernie is going to make his run..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

[hurricanes1234]

This is one of those storms that look great on satellite, but if you look at the structure its a pig

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That is extremely true, particularly with Ernesto. Right now, the satellite presentation resembles that of a 70 mph storm or a 75 mph hurricane, although the outflow is now poorly defined. But with every advisory, the strength does not change the slightest bit. It has remained between 50 and 60 mph since it was classified as a tropical storm, although with every satellite image, the appearance differs.


___________
Do not judge a book by its covers!

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 050019
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 05/00:01:00Z
B. 15 deg 06 min N
071 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 45 kt
E. 101 deg 59 nm
F. 138 deg 44 kt
G. 074 deg 114 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 17 C / 1582 m
J. 21 C / 1563 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 04
MAX FL WIND 44 KT E QUAD 23:21:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 13 KT SW QUAD 00:09:30Z

[HurricaneAndrew92]

People, let's wait untill recon ends to say it's weakened. Wasn't 11am enough?

[KWT]

Either of these scenarios can play out very fast (read: hours) this time of year.

(It's a pity they don't have, or don't release, radar imagery from recon. Hmm.... I wonder much trouble it would be to install a 37 ghz microwave on an Orion.....)

Yes I remember once seeing a system that was totally unstacked for about 3-4 days in the Caribbean finally stack in the matter of 3-5hrs in the W.Caribbean and make a run at hurricane before landfall over the Yucatan. Can't remember what system it was, but it was very impressive to see it play out before your eyes.

[TwisterFanatic]

Gosh, gotta love amateur weather message boards. From close to Hurricane strength to now Ernesto has decoupled. LOL

[wxman57]

Plane is still looking for a center. I see the vortex message but all the plane has found is NE wind on one side and NW on the other. No SW wind yet.

[tolakram]

Oh man, I overbid. not even 55 to 59 :o

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 050020
XXAA 55008 99151 70716 04451 99007 26216 09505 00066 26015 09006
92752 22003 02005 85487 19208 11505 88999 77999
31313 09608 82357
61616 AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 1510N07164W 0000 MBL WND 06505 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06
004 007843 WL150 08006 083 REL 1510N07164W 235743 SPG 1510N07164W
235956 =
XXBB 55008 99151 70716 04451 00007 26216 11850 19208 22843 /////
21212 00007 09505 11894 05003 22858 11505 33843 11504
31313 09608 82357
61616 AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 EYE SPL 1510N07164W 0000 MBL WND 06505 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06
004 007843 WL150 08006 083 REL 1510N07164W 235743 SPG 1510N07164W
235956 =
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

This is one of those storms that look great on satellite, but if you look at the structure its a pig

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That is extremely true, particularly with Ernesto. Right now, the satellite presentation resembles that of a 70 mph storm or a 75 mph hurricane, although the outflow is now poorly defined. But with every advisory, the strength does not change the slightest bit. It has remained between 50 and 60 mph since it was classified as a tropical storm, although with every satellite image, the appearance differs.


___________
Do not judge a book by its covers!

Hurricanes1234, the structure is not a pig. This structure is hours old as said earlier.

[JPmia]

So based on what we're hearing from recon reports it seems the models calling for him to have alignment issues were on to something. However, based on how this looks.. watch out when he pulls himself together!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Gosh, gotta love amateur weather message boards. From close to Hurricane strength to now Ernesto has decoupled. LOL

Gives you both sides of the story.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I will faithfully wait for 11 because I think this storm is a 60kt storm.