ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[jinftl]

Could she come onshore tonight at this rate? A good part of the circulation already onshore.

Awesome image! And yes, it would appear a center is reorganizing to the west.

I don't see that in the image, Portastorm. I see a steady NNE movement toward Apalachicola. Not even any squalls near the center now. The nearest squalls are located 100 miles to the north and northeast of the low-level swirl.

[Annie Oakley]

Ha ha Mark! Glad you are here to interpret for me.......thanks.

Thanks Annie..great job!

You taught me well Dave! I try to honor that but I have lots to learn.
Kudos to the Graphics Kings.

Everyone be safe

[psyclone]

I know we like to geek out on tracks, predictions and crow... but can we all just give one HOLY CRAP for NHC for Debby? I for one would hate to be in that forecaster chair today. =)

I'm in that forecast chair, and I'm hoping I awaken from this nightmare any minute...

well we appreciate your wisdom. we are getting nasty weather here in pinellas county with a recent 56mph gust in st pete.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241544
AF302 0204A DEBBY3 HDOB 36 20120624
153000 2715N 08745W 8117 01844 //// +148 //// 006046 047 022 001 01
153030 2713N 08745W 8118 01843 //// +138 //// 360044 045 023 001 01
153100 2711N 08744W 8120 01842 //// +135 //// 354041 043 017 002 01
153130 2709N 08743W 8121 01843 //// +144 //// 358040 042 021 001 01
153200 2708N 08742W 8117 01848 //// +140 //// 004041 043 022 001 01
153230 2706N 08741W 8117 01848 //// +139 //// 357039 039 020 002 01
153300 2704N 08741W 8122 01844 //// +139 //// 350035 038 023 001 01
153330 2702N 08740W 8116 01850 //// +142 //// 349034 036 023 000 01
153400 2700N 08739W 8126 01842 //// +144 //// 348036 037 021 002 01
153430 2659N 08738W 8117 01849 //// +139 //// 349038 039 022 001 01
153500 2657N 08738W 8114 01855 //// +142 //// 344039 040 020 002 01
153530 2655N 08737W 8122 01848 //// +141 //// 345035 038 020 001 01
153600 2653N 08736W 8118 01853 //// +136 //// 341033 035 021 002 01
153630 2651N 08735W 8120 01852 //// +141 //// 341034 035 018 002 05
153700 2649N 08734W 8114 01855 //// +146 //// 338031 035 /// /// 05
153730 2650N 08732W 8115 01853 //// +141 //// 337023 028 012 003 01
153800 2651N 08730W 8123 01848 //// +141 //// 343025 025 016 002 01
153830 2652N 08729W 8117 01852 //// +141 //// 349024 025 018 001 01
153900 2654N 08727W 8118 01849 //// +145 //// 342024 025 020 002 01
153930 2655N 08726W 8121 01844 //// +146 //// 337026 028 020 002 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

ACE so far for Debby and for the North Atlantic:

Code: Select all

04L (Debby)

Debby Operational

0.8575

North Atlantic Total

5.8175


[Weatherfreak000]

GFS completely called this. Center reformations and GFS now holds the crown. Adios, EURO. Where's ROCK?

[Annie Oakley]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241537
XXAA 74148 99281 70862 08186 99994 26815 31503 00554 ///// /////
92634 23009 30501 85371 20215 35004 88999 77999
31313 09608 81421
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 2805N08620W 1423 MBL WND 31003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 34
502 993812 WL150 31004 084 REL 2805N08620W 142102 SPG 2805N08620W
142244 =
XXBB 74148 99281 70862 08186 00994 26815 11850 20215 22823 20228
33812 /////
21212 00994 31503 11915 00000 22850 35004 33812 02504
31313 09608 81421
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 2805N08620W 1423 MBL WND 31003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 34
502 993812 WL150 31004 084 REL 2805N08620W 142102 SPG 2805N08620W
142244 =
;

[mph101]

I know there is some disappointment at the prospect of this missing Texas and them not receiving the much needed rain. But if this does continue northeast, at least Georgia will get some rain out of it... parts of GA are pretty drought-ridden so far this year (not as bad as TX, though).

Florida , with emphasis on the gulf & west coast is in a severe drought as well.
This lopsided weak storm is extremely good news for this area too, somehow drought conditions are forgotten about in Florida.

[Portastorm]

Awesome image! And yes, it would appear a center is reorganizing to the west.

I don't see that in the image, Portastorm. I see a steady NNE movement toward Apalachicola. Not even any squalls near the center now. The nearest squalls are located 100 miles to the north and northeast of the low-level swirl.

That's why YOU're the meteorologist and I'm not!

Thanks for the clarification. We look forward to your continuing expertise.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH OF SAINT
PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 421...

DISCUSSION...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING STEADILY WITH
EXPANSIVE OUTER ENVELOPE OF TS DEBBY...PER SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
1258...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER SRN FL AND MOST FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC FIELDS OVER CENTRAL/WRN PENINSULA. REFER TO NHC
ADVISORIES FOR LATEST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...INTENSITY AND TROPICAL
WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION REGARDING DEBBY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18035.


...EDWARDS

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Moderate
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Low Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241549
AF302 0204A DEBBY3 HDOB 37 20120624
154000 2656N 08724W 8120 01847 //// +144 //// 339030 031 022 002 01
154030 2658N 08723W 8125 01838 //// +149 //// 341030 031 022 002 01
154100 2659N 08722W 8125 01836 //// +149 //// 337031 034 023 000 01
154130 2700N 08721W 8114 01844 //// +143 //// 330033 035 022 003 01
154200 2701N 08719W 8114 01843 //// +136 //// 326033 035 023 003 01
154230 2702N 08718W 8123 01832 //// +140 //// 329033 033 024 001 01
154300 2703N 08717W 8116 01843 //// +141 //// 341033 035 023 001 01
154330 2704N 08716W 8119 01835 //// +137 //// 351039 039 024 001 01
154400 2705N 08715W 8115 01836 //// +133 //// 350039 041 024 001 01
154430 2706N 08714W 8122 01830 //// +140 //// 343043 044 025 001 01
154500 2707N 08712W 8117 01832 //// +138 //// 340041 042 026 001 01
154530 2708N 08711W 8121 01827 //// +140 //// 341045 046 027 003 01
154600 2709N 08710W 8118 01826 //// +138 //// 342042 044 030 003 01
154630 2710N 08709W 8120 01825 //// +138 //// 336042 043 033 001 01
154700 2711N 08708W 8120 01824 //// +136 //// 333039 042 032 002 01
154730 2713N 08707W 8121 01820 //// +140 //// 330035 038 029 001 01
154800 2714N 08705W 8118 01822 //// +142 //// 328035 036 028 001 01
154830 2715N 08704W 8119 01820 //// +141 //// 331037 039 025 002 01
154900 2716N 08703W 8117 01820 //// +143 //// 333038 039 025 002 01
154930 2717N 08702W 8115 01820 //// +138 //// 333043 045 026 002 01
$$

[PTrackerLA]

What a forecasting disaster. Looks like the GFS may have been right all along. If the 12z Euro shifts east to the panhandle this is essentially a done deal.

[Aquawind]

They were probably a few hours late on this but never to late to make a good decision...3 torn warnings going right now in the southern half.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 422 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LAKE
LEE LEVY MANATEE
MARTIN PALM BEACH PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SUMTER
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...

2 days of this yet no Tornado or Storm watches down here whatsoever...no heads up fro the public.. I would think this is what watches are for.

[WeatherGuesser]

I see a steady NNE movement toward Apalachicola.

For whatever it's worth, this shows the NHC historical track.

[lebron23]

GFS completely called this. Center reformations and GFS now holds the crown. Adios, EURO. Where's ROCK?

If you have been following this storrm the past few days you should know that nothing is set in stone.

[KWT]

The LLC still is getting sucked/drifted to the NE looking at the loops though the broader vortex is still just about holding steady. Not much motion though either way to be fair.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241558
AF302 0204A DEBBY3 HDOB 38 20120624
155000 2718N 08701W 8120 01813 //// +139 //// 337046 048 029 001 01
155030 2719N 08700W 8121 01810 //// +139 //// 334045 047 030 002 01
155100 2720N 08658W 8120 01809 //// +140 //// 330044 046 031 002 01
155130 2721N 08657W 8120 01807 //// +140 //// 330042 044 031 002 01
155200 2722N 08656W 8118 01807 //// +144 //// 329041 043 035 000 01
155230 2723N 08655W 8118 01804 //// +140 //// 331043 043 037 002 01
155300 2724N 08654W 8119 01801 //// +142 //// 329041 043 038 000 01
155330 2726N 08652W 8121 01796 //// +145 //// 325040 042 037 001 01
155400 2727N 08651W 8121 01794 //// +144 //// 325039 040 034 003 01
155430 2728N 08650W 8117 01796 //// +143 //// 323039 040 036 004 01
155500 2729N 08649W 8118 01792 //// +144 //// 321037 040 038 002 01
155530 2730N 08647W 8119 01788 //// +144 //// 319036 037 037 004 01
155600 2731N 08646W 8119 01787 //// +145 //// 314031 035 036 003 01
155630 2732N 08645W 8122 01782 //// +145 //// 315031 031 036 002 01
155700 2733N 08644W 8118 01783 //// +147 //// 311030 031 035 003 01
155730 2735N 08642W 8121 01780 //// +150 //// 311030 030 033 001 01
155800 2736N 08641W 8119 01780 //// +147 //// 311030 031 031 001 01
155830 2737N 08640W 8117 01779 //// +151 //// 304031 031 031 001 01
155900 2738N 08638W 8118 01776 //// +155 //// 299030 031 029 002 01
155930 2739N 08637W 8117 01776 //// +151 //// 297029 030 028 002 01
$$

[crimi481]

Part of the dirty side - in Venice, FL
The 2 Lows are stacking in center now. Huge influx of bands coming up from Yucatan
S.W. Florida in for big ride once the unified center stacks and fills in, Appearing to happen now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

Have to start calling it the Euro-weenie and the GFS the Mighty GFS!!

[tolakram]

Ok, let's stop unless we have additional model data and comments about that data. Thanks.