ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

Well...let's take a look at what kind of wind speed Ernesto would need to have a closed circulation.

Ernesto is moving to the W at 18 mph, per the 8 pm EDT advisory. In order to have a "closed" circulation, he would need winds on the south side to be at least 19 mph (from the west). Likewise, that means winds on the northern side would be at least 38 mph (from the east). The southern half of the winds are that strong...but just barely enough to keep the circulation together. If he doesn't slow down here very soon, he'll end up breaking down into a trough, as without convection being right over the center, he will have a hard time keeping those winds up to the levels needed (especially on the southern side, where they are weakest).

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050053
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 18 20120805
004500 1349N 07225W 8429 01569 0091 +175 +175 000001 003 013 001 00
004530 1350N 07224W 8429 01568 0092 +170 +170 266002 002 015 004 01
004600 1350N 07222W 8433 01564 0089 +170 +170 176003 005 024 005 01
004630 1350N 07220W 8425 01575 0091 +170 +170 235002 005 023 005 01
004700 1350N 07218W 8431 01567 0087 +170 +170 055001 003 022 004 01
004730 1350N 07217W 8428 01568 0089 +170 +170 003001 002 019 004 01
004800 1350N 07215W 8428 01569 0091 +170 +170 024000 002 019 003 01
004830 1350N 07213W 8428 01569 0089 +170 +170 063001 002 021 002 01
004900 1350N 07212W 8432 01566 0088 +177 +172 085001 003 022 002 00
004930 1350N 07210W 8430 01568 0093 +170 +170 162005 007 023 003 01
005000 1351N 07208W 8430 01569 0096 +170 +170 145006 009 023 004 01
005030 1351N 07207W 8428 01571 0096 +160 +160 141009 011 025 007 01
005100 1351N 07205W 8430 01569 0096 +160 +160 162010 012 023 004 01
005130 1351N 07203W 8429 01572 0094 +170 +169 178012 013 020 004 00
005200 1351N 07202W 8428 01573 0093 +175 +167 176012 012 019 003 00
005230 1351N 07200W 8434 01566 0097 +160 +160 189011 012 012 004 01
005300 1351N 07158W 8429 01573 0095 +175 +153 186014 016 015 003 00
005330 1351N 07157W 8429 01571 0092 +180 +133 185017 017 019 002 00
005400 1351N 07155W 8428 01573 0093 +185 +120 189016 017 015 003 00
005430 1352N 07153W 8429 01572 0094 +180 +136 192016 017 019 004 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Well,is a tie between both storms.

AL, 05, 2012080500, , BEST, 0, 153N, 717W, 50, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[hurricanes1234]

Right now, the satellite presentation resembles that of a 70 mph storm or a 75 mph hurricane, although the outflow is now poorly defined....

Huh? I defy you to find a tropical storm with better-looking outflow than Ernesto's. Many hurricanes are worse-looking.

(It's a pity they don't have, or don't release, radar imagery from recon. Hmm.... I wonder much trouble it would be to install a 37 ghz microwave on an Orion.....)

Yes I remember once seeing a system that was totally unstacked for about 3-4 days in the Caribbean finally stack in the matter of 3-5hrs in the W.Caribbean and make a run at hurricane before landfall over the Yucatan. Can't remember what system it was, but it was very impressive to see it play out before your eyes.

I remember watching Iris croak to a nearly naked wind-shift line in the LAs, then rocket back to 145mph will zooming along at bat-out-of-hell forward speed.

<scamper off to listen to Meat Loaf on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8jBMYr5pG4 >

I am just saying that Ernesto's outflow has become a little less defined in my opinion....it's not meant to be taken as the worst system out.

[tolakram]

from the recon thread:



two wind shifts so far ... not looking good at all.

[Hurricaneman]

This needs to slow down to about 15mph to stack up IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[AJC3]

Boy, those southerly winds that far south give this thing the appearance of a... *cringes* ...open wave, or an elongated trough/circulation that's very close to it.

[tolakram]

Will they even find west winds?

[wxwatcher1999]

when will the next recon mission go out?

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050103
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 19 20120805
005500 1352N 07151W 8431 01571 0096 +179 +126 192017 017 021 005 00
005530 1352N 07150W 8431 01572 0098 +174 +144 190017 018 023 004 00
005600 1352N 07148W 8430 01573 0101 +171 +141 191018 019 020 006 00
005630 1352N 07146W 8429 01574 0105 +165 +153 196018 019 021 005 00
005700 1352N 07144W 8430 01577 0106 +167 +143 190018 019 021 005 00
005730 1352N 07143W 8426 01578 0107 +163 +151 188019 019 021 004 00
005800 1352N 07141W 8431 01574 0107 +161 +152 187019 019 020 005 00
005830 1352N 07139W 8432 01573 0108 +161 +145 181019 020 022 005 00
005900 1353N 07138W 8428 01578 0110 +157 +152 173019 020 022 006 00
005930 1353N 07136W 8432 01574 0111 +160 +145 166020 020 022 005 00
010000 1353N 07134W 8423 01584 0109 +159 +153 168020 022 023 006 00
010030 1353N 07133W 8425 01580 0110 +157 +152 159022 022 023 007 00
010100 1353N 07131W 8430 01574 0111 +157 +153 159021 023 027 005 00
010130 1353N 07129W 8430 01577 0112 +157 +149 164020 021 028 005 00
010200 1353N 07128W 8427 01577 0114 +156 +154 158021 025 027 006 00
010230 1353N 07126W 8452 01551 0117 +150 +150 164019 025 027 010 01
010300 1353N 07124W 8434 01573 0115 +150 +150 169018 026 028 008 01
010330 1354N 07123W 8441 01566 0109 +162 +141 170021 023 032 006 00
010400 1354N 07121W 8407 01600 0113 +154 +153 161021 026 032 006 00
010430 1354N 07119W 8422 01582 0109 +160 +135 177022 025 034 005 00
$$
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Still think this is at least 50kts

[hurricanes1234]

This is one of those storms that look great on satellite, but if you look at the structure its a pig

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That is extremely true, particularly with Ernesto. Right now, the satellite presentation resembles that of a 70 mph storm or a 75 mph hurricane, although the outflow is now poorly defined. But with every advisory, the strength does not change the slightest bit. It has remained between 50 and 60 mph since it was classified as a tropical storm, although with every satellite image, the appearance differs.


___________
Do not judge a book by its covers!

Hurricanes1234, the structure is not a pig. This structure is hours old as said earlier.

Next time, please specify yourself properly. I thought you meant that the structure was as bad as a pig. How should someone know that you're talking about an actual pig?

[Kingarabian]

Are we not supposed to post pictures on the recon thread?

[AJC3]

Are we not supposed to post pictures on the recon thread?

I deleted a post of yours that was blank. At least that's how it came up on my PC. Apologies if it wasn't a blank post.

[Kingarabian]

Are we not supposed to post pictures on the recon thread?

I deleted a post of yours that was blank. At least that's how it came up on my PC. Apologies if it wasn't a blank post.

Weird, no it wasn't blank. I'll try again.

[tolakram]

littlevince is handling recon right now. talk to him if you want to take over or do the graphics.

[RL3AO]

Also, I'm going to take a guess that recon finds a much weaker storm then some of you think. I bet they struggle to verify that 50kt intensity.

*High fives self*

Not enough convergence. It looked pretty but you need air to be rushing towards the center from every direction which it wasn't. CIMSS shows a little more now over the center which I'll assume is correct since I can see visible sat images anymore to see if there is any change.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Also, I'm going to take a guess that recon finds a much weaker storm then some of you think. I bet they struggle to verify that 50kt intensity.

*High fives self*

Not enough convergence. It looked pretty but you need air to be rushing towards the center from every direction which it wasn't. CIMSS shows a little more now over the center which I'll assume is correct since I can see visible sat images anymore to see if there is any change.

Gonna throw my pride in and say 50kts at 11.

[Dave]

kingarabian check your pm's just sent you one...it's ok you're learning.

[Hurricane Andrew]

New tiny burst near one of the centers recon found.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg