ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[weatherwindow]

Pressure down to 941mbs now, looks like Sandy is indeed strengthening, and looking at it, its still tropical strengthening as well as convection is deepening again.

Recalling those earlier Euro forecast landfall pressures ...932mb, no way, now perhaps way

According to recon via EJ.....939mb....Definitely WAY

Oops..make that ....937.5

[Stephanie]

The European Model and all of the others REALLY did a great job nailing this storm early enough to get people to wake up and be aware.

[Sanibel]

And I don't think the worst of it is even there yet. The 90mph core will give that flood water you see in that picture another shove and pile it even higher.

[N2FSU]

Joe Bastardi tweet: "Based on the latest data, storm surge values for New York City have been increased to the 12-14ft range."

[CrazyC83]

These wind models are nerve-wracking. It sets up a rather odd gradient - rather modest to the 700 layer, then near Cat 2 force at 850 and a solid 75 kt at 925...a shallow wind layer is more likely to get to the surface?

[KBBOCA]

The European Model and all of the others REALLY did a great job nailing this storm early enough to get people to wake up and be aware.

Definitely, Stephanie. I'm in awe of the models & forecasters skill. (And the fact that the forecasters had the confidence to TRUST and BROADCAST such "extreme" forecasts from the models.)

As this board and others will attest, some of us DID wake up early. (I've been posting here and elsewhere since Friday...) But unfortunately not all have been aware until now, and many did not trust what they were hearing. The facts were there, but perhaps not always communicated as clearly as needed.

Of course complacency after storms predicted to be worse, but which then weakened for some areas (Irene in NYC proper...) have made the communications task MUCH harder.

[Sanibel]

Joe Bastardi tweet: "Based on the latest data, storm surge values for New York City have been increased to the 12-14ft range."

Oh boy... (one line answer probably appropriate at this point) This will be expensive.

[Frank2]

Not sure if anyone posted this radar link - history in the making:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[artist]

Could someone please catch me up to speed on whats going on. I have been driving towards ssndy since early this am and no radio stations in la are broadcasting coverage. Im a catastrophe adjuster headed that way to work flood claims

COntinues to drop pressure. Lot's of flooding going on as expected. Many in awe it is actually happening.

Thank you artist. Are they still expecting 13' surge or have they raised it.

I do know it is being stated water levels are much above Irene already and continue to rise.
I don't know if this helps you or not, but this is from the NHC page on tide levels -
Water Level and Meteorological plots available below are updated automatically. Water level predictions relative to Mean Lower Low Water are:

Duck, NC: Next predicted high tides are 4.0 ft (1.23 m) at 10/29/2012 07:41 EDT and 3.3 ft (1.01 m) at 10/29/2012 19:56 EDT.

Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA: Next predicted high tides are 3.2 ft (0.98 m) at 10/29/2012 08:37 EDT and 2.6 ft (0.81 m) at 10/29/2012 20:52 EDT.

Wachapreague, VA: Next predicted high tides are 5.0 ft (1.52 m) at 10/29/2012 08:43 EDT and 4.3 ft (1.32 m) at 10/29/2012 20:58 EDT.

Lewisetta, VA: Next predicted high tides are 1.6 ft (0.49 m) at 10/29/2012 14:02 EDT and 1.4 ft (0.43 m) at 10/30/2012 02:20 EDT.

Ocean City Inlet, MD: Next predicted high tides are 2.6 ft (0.78 m) at 10/29/2012 08:19 EDT and 2.1 ft (0.66 m) at 10/29/2012 20:25 EDT.

Lewes, DE: Next predicted high tides are 4.9 ft (1.48 m) at 10/29/2012 08:55 EDT and 4.1 ft (1.25 m) at 10/29/2012 21:15 EDT.

Cape May, NJ: Next predicted high tides are 5.7 ft (1.72 m) at 10/29/2012 08:49 EDT and 4.9 ft (1.51 m) at 10/29/2012 21:09 EDT.

Atlantic City, NJ: Next predicted high tides are 4.8 ft (1.47 m) at 10/29/2012 07:41 EDT and 4.1 ft (1.27 m) at 10/29/2012 20:00 EDT.

Sandy Hook, NJ: Next predicted high tides are 5.5 ft (1.69 m) at 10/29/2012 08:01 EDT and 4.9 ft (1.50 m) at 10/29/2012 20:22 EDT.

Kings Point, NY: Next predicted high tides are 8.3 ft (2.54 m) at 10/29/2012 12:00 EDT and 7.6 ft (2.34 m) at 10/30/2012 00:27 EDT.

Bridgeport, CT: Next predicted high tides are 7.6 ft (2.31 m) at 10/29/2012 11:29 EDT and 6.9 ft (2.12 m) at 10/29/2012 23:57 EDT.

USCG Station Hatteras, NC: Next predicted high tides are 0.9 ft (0.28 m) at 10/29/2012 08:59 EDT and 0.7 ft (0.22 m) at 10/29/2012 21:30 EDT.

[tolakram]

Saved Radar Loop

[Meow]

It seems that Sandy is not extremely large.


Left: Severe Tropical Storm Talas
Right: Hurricane Sandy

[IntheEye]

Not sure if anyone posted this radar link - history in the making:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Following the movement of the eye it looks like Sandy will make landfall north of the NHC forecast point (which is closer to Cape May but Sandy may hit Atlantic City instead)

[RVAHudson]

Water is up on the runway at JFK already...

https://twitter.com/smartinWNTV/status/262945392394649601/photo/1/large

[chrisjslucia]

This image is of every hurricane since 1850 superimposed on a globe of the world. Look at the info at the lower right hand side and it shows the increase in recording of storms - something that is helping improve forecasting, including the potential damage of Sandy. If you want to see the original image it is here:
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/ ... 85-009.jpg

[Stephanie]

Joe Bastardi tweet: "Based on the latest data, storm surge values for New York City have been increased to the 12-14ft range."

Thank you for that update.

[KBBOCA]

I don't know if this helps you or not, but this is from the NHC page on tide levels -
Water Level and Meteorological plots available below are updated automatically. Water level predictions relative to Mean Lower Low Water are:

Bridgeport, CT: Next predicted high tides are 7.6 ft (2.31 m) at 10/29/2012 11:29 EDT and 6.9 ft (2.12 m) at 10/29/2012 23:57 EDT.

I'm confused now. I saw a graphic at NOAA earlier today (and posted it here) showing an expected high of 13 feet in Bridgeport.

Do the values you posted take storm surge over and above expected high tide into account?

[x-y-no]

Tide gauge at The Battery:



Level going down due to ebbing tide, but surge currently at 4 1/2 feet.

Next high tide at ~9pm.

Hopefully this continues to be available - the server is obviously having a tough time due to load - database errors and script errors.

[Frank2]

Not sure if anyone posted this radar link - history in the making:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[artist]

I don't know if this helps you or not, but this is from the NHC page on tide levels -
Water Level and Meteorological plots available below are updated automatically. Water level predictions relative to Mean Lower Low Water are:

Bridgeport, CT: Next predicted high tides are 7.6 ft (2.31 m) at 10/29/2012 11:29 EDT and 6.9 ft (2.12 m) at 10/29/2012 23:57 EDT.

I'm confused now. I saw a graphic at NOAA earlier today (and posted it here) showing an expected high of 13 feet in Bridgeport.

Do the values you posted take storm surge over and above expected high tide into account?

I would assume they don't, now that you mention it, since it states just the tide levels predicted.

[superdeluxe]

What is historic about this? Sorry I haven't kept up