ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[mcheer23]

Dont know about intensity but i think the cone shifts south

[Kingarabian]

Yup, done and done .

[Shuriken]

Right now, the satellite presentation resembles that of a 70 mph storm or a 75 mph hurricane, although the outflow is now poorly defined....

Huh? I defy you to find a tropical storm with better-looking outflow than Ernesto's. Many hurricanes are worse-looking.

I am just saying that Ernesto's outflow has become a little less defined in my opinion....it's not meant to be taken as the worst system out.

Ernesto's outflow has done nothing but become better defined all day -- it's the most visually impressive thing about the storm so far.

This is a HUGE exhaust envelope for a non-hurricane, and on the large side for an actual hurricane:

[Dave]

Filling in for a few minutes...

000
URNT15 KNHC 050113
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 20 20120805
010500 1354N 07118W 8435 01569 0111 +159 +128 175023 023 036 004 00
010530 1354N 07116W 8428 01578 0112 +158 +125 174023 023 037 005 00
010600 1354N 07114W 8429 01575 0110 +161 +123 178024 024 038 005 00
010630 1354N 07113W 8433 01572 0112 +164 +086 178026 027 037 007 00
010700 1354N 07111W 8429 01577 0114 +160 +093 174026 027 038 007 00
010730 1354N 07109W 8429 01577 0116 +157 +099 175026 027 036 008 00
010800 1354N 07108W 8431 01575 0115 +159 +082 179027 028 035 009 00
010830 1355N 07106W 8429 01578 0116 +160 +067 174029 029 036 008 00
010900 1355N 07104W 8428 01579 0120 +155 +071 170029 029 035 008 03
010930 1355N 07103W 8428 01577 0121 +148 +089 163029 030 /// /// 03
011000 1357N 07103W 8429 01582 0128 +143 +097 159029 029 032 008 00
011030 1358N 07104W 8429 01579 0126 +145 +093 161029 029 032 010 00
011100 1400N 07106W 8430 01578 0123 +149 +094 161029 029 036 010 00
011130 1401N 07107W 8426 01583 0117 +158 +089 164027 028 039 008 00
011200 1403N 07108W 8432 01574 0114 +163 +085 169028 029 041 007 00
011230 1404N 07110W 8430 01574 0113 +158 +096 174028 029 041 008 00
011300 1405N 07111W 8432 01572 0114 +154 +095 180030 031 043 008 00
011330 1406N 07112W 8431 01573 0111 +159 +095 183030 031 044 006 00
011400 1408N 07114W 8422 01582 0110 +157 +121 180031 032 041 008 00
011430 1409N 07115W 8432 01569 0113 +151 +137 172029 031 042 007 00
$$
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Starting to smack my face because intensity has not changed in 48 hours about. No proof at least. I'll wake up tomorrow it'll have an eye and be 50mph...argh!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050123
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 21 20120805
011500 1410N 07116W 8431 01571 0114 +140 +140 168030 031 044 007 01
011530 1412N 07118W 8428 01574 0114 +140 +140 169032 033 045 008 01
011600 1413N 07119W 8429 01569 0117 +140 +140 173031 032 045 009 01
011630 1415N 07120W 8425 01569 0115 +140 +140 173037 039 045 009 01
011700 1416N 07122W 8437 01556 //// +125 //// 161037 038 047 025 01
011730 1417N 07123W 8432 01563 //// +127 //// 155034 038 051 037 01
011800 1419N 07124W 8418 01582 //// +130 //// 148035 036 060 043 01
011830 1420N 07126W 8441 01566 //// +130 //// 152031 036 054 031 01
011900 1421N 07127W 8445 01561 //// +136 //// 153026 030 057 038 01
011930 1423N 07128W 8424 01580 //// +136 //// 157027 031 056 031 01
012000 1424N 07130W 8426 01579 //// +137 //// 158027 029 052 024 01
012030 1425N 07131W 8434 01572 //// +144 //// 163027 028 045 018 01
012100 1427N 07132W 8431 01575 //// +152 //// 155023 026 042 011 01
012130 1428N 07134W 8432 01571 //// +153 //// 145020 024 042 010 01
012200 1429N 07135W 8428 01577 //// +161 //// 147016 018 041 010 01
012230 1431N 07136W 8425 01575 0101 +160 +160 147012 014 041 009 01
012300 1432N 07137W 8429 01572 //// +156 //// 143013 017 041 010 01
012330 1433N 07139W 8433 01571 //// +155 //// 149016 017 040 011 01
012400 1435N 07140W 8421 01582 //// +146 //// 143014 018 039 014 01
012430 1436N 07141W 8445 01558 //// +161 //// 138013 014 044 022 01
$$
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

This serves for some of us. Just as we think we are about to see it intensify quickly, recon comes in to say intensity hasn't changed.

[hurricanes1234]

Shuriken, I said it was slightly less defined in my opinion. It does not mean that the storm is indeed less defined. I agree with you that Ernesto's outflow is unusually impressive but it's just that the rainbands have diminished slightly.

[Sanibel]

It's a little early in the season for a buzzsaw, but this consolidation into that CDO center is similar to other west-heading, south-trackers in this area.

That little nodule branching off and hooking of the central convection on AVN IR is probably the sign of a gear shift and intensification.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Winds of 60kts...01 though... Is that to be disregarded?

[tolakram]

[JPmia]

Based on what we're seeing with the LLC vs MLC alignment.. should we be concerned with LLC reformation?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050133
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 22 20120805
012500 1437N 07143W 8425 01582 0105 +170 +170 146012 013 031 008 01
012530 1438N 07144W 8429 01578 0102 +170 +170 157013 013 031 008 01
012600 1440N 07145W 8432 01575 0101 +172 +171 164013 013 028 009 00
012630 1441N 07146W 8429 01578 0100 +174 +169 165014 015 028 007 00
012700 1442N 07148W 8433 01573 0099 +170 +170 168012 014 024 004 01
012730 1443N 07149W 8432 01574 0097 +178 +167 172012 012 021 005 00
012800 1445N 07150W 8426 01578 0096 +177 +176 159012 013 024 005 00
012830 1446N 07151W 8432 01573 0095 +180 +180 166009 011 022 004 01
012900 1447N 07153W 8429 01574 0096 +180 +180 153010 010 018 005 01
012930 1448N 07154W 8430 01573 0094 +180 +180 147009 010 022 004 01
013000 1450N 07155W 8429 01575 0094 +180 +180 138009 010 023 003 01
013030 1451N 07156W 8429 01574 0093 +180 +180 147010 011 025 003 01
013100 1452N 07158W 8432 01571 0092 +180 +180 162011 011 024 004 01
013130 1453N 07159W 8428 01574 0089 +183 +174 156010 011 022 004 00
013200 1455N 07200W 8432 01569 0085 +192 +147 178009 010 021 004 00
013230 1456N 07201W 8426 01574 0082 +196 +141 174009 011 026 003 00
013300 1457N 07202W 8432 01569 0077 +206 +132 170008 008 025 003 00
013330 1458N 07204W 8428 01573 0079 +203 +137 182008 008 025 003 00
013400 1500N 07205W 8433 01567 0080 +201 +140 195006 007 020 002 00
013430 1501N 07206W 8430 01572 0082 +198 +143 185005 006 022 002 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Winds of 60kts...01 though... Is that to be disregarded?

Look at the rain rates...43. Rain inflated. I left a post on, I think, it was page 7 regarding this.

[brunota2003]

Winds of 60kts...01 though... Is that to be disregarded?

Look in the recon discussion thread.

[wxman57]

It's a little early in the season for a buzzsaw, but this consolidation into that CDO center is similar to other west-heading, south-trackers in this area.

That little nodule branching off and hooking of the central convection on AVN IR is probably the sign of a gear shift and intensification.

I think the gear shift was into reverse...

[tolakram]

[Hurricaneman]

The NHC I think is going to continue advisories for a least 1 or 2 but if this doesnt organize at the surface, they may drop advisories

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[CrazyC83]

I think we might be seeing a center relocation in process right now. Will it relocate under the convection?

[CrazyC83]

If a center relocation happens, will the low levels or mid-levels tell the story first?