WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[dexterlabio]

Mother of God. This is really get to be super before passing somewhere near Palau. And I am not feeling good about the sustained westward motion. If this hits Mindanao, it will be a lot worse. That part of the country is not built for a typhoon and people out there don't get to see tropical cyclones often...well, the recent one just happened last year.

[Crostorm]

Bopha is now below 5 ° N! Do anyone know if there are precedents (intense cyclones that have evolved around 5 ° N)?

[Crostorm]

[cycloneye]

JMA up to 90kts

WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 04.7N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 05.8N 138.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 030000UTC 07.1N 133.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 040000UTC 08.6N 129.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 931.0mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.8 6.8

this is incredible! bopha with her pinhole eye is becoming annular!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302131
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
800 AM CHST SAT DEC 1 2012

...STRONG TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD PALAU...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE AND KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE
AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 4.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL
710 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TYPHOON BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THIS MOVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 105 MPH. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...4.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 142.5
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM CHST LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO





000
WTPQ81 PGUM 302315
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SAT DEC 1 2012

...STRONG TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARDS PALAU...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN KOROR AND NEARBY ISLANDS INCLUDING ANGAUR...PELELIU...
BABELDAOB AND KAYANGEL AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND
FOR YAP ISLAND AND NGULU ATOLL IN YAP STATE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE AND KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE
AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 4.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL
710 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TYPHOON BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN 105 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST. THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES BOPHA SOUTH OF NGULU...AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS
OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU FROM KAYANGEL IN THE NORTH TO ANGAUR IN
THE SOUTH ARE AT GREAT RISK. THE TYPHOON IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
150 MPH.

...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS FOR LOCATIONS FROM
KAYANGEL IN THE NORTH TO ANGAUR IN THE SOUTH. THE LAST MAJOR TYPHOON
TO HIT PALAU WAS TYPHOON MIKE IN 1991. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE
DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL OF TYPHOON-STRENGTH WINDS. KEEP INFORMED OF
THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS OR
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PRACTICE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN IN
CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED. THIS INCLUDES IDENTIFYING A SHELTER WHICH
WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS IN ADDITION TO HAVING ENOUGH
FOOD AND WATER TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE STORM. AFTER TONIGHT
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
ON SUNDAY AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SHORES
THROUGH TONIGHT SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 11 TO 15 FEET ON
SUNDAY. SURF OF 20 FEET OR HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD
CAUSE COASTAL INUNDATION OF 8 TO 10 FEET OR HIGHER FOR LOCATIONS
THAT ARE DIRECTLY HIT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKELY. FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

...NGULU...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
COULD BECOME STRONGER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OR THE
WIND FIELD INCREASES.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SHORES BEGINNING TONIGHT. SURF COULD INCREASE TO 11 TO 15
FEET ON SUNDAY AND COULD BECOME HIGHER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OR THE WIND FIELD INCREASES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

...YAP ISLAND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST TO 35 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AND COULD BECOME STRONGER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK OR THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS SIGNIFICANTLY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SHORES THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 14
FEET ON SUNDAY AND COULD BECOME HIGHER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OR THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS SIGNIFICANTLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

...SONSOROL...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL AFTER TODAY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST TO 35 MPH THROUGH
SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AND
WINDS COULD BECOME STRONGER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 13 FEET
BY MONDAY AND COULD BECOME HIGHER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK OR THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS SIGNIFICANTLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TYPHOON BOPHA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$

ZIOBRO/GUARD

[stormstrike]

wow.. by the next JTWC update i think Bopha will be a Cat-4 typhoon...

[dexterlabio]

i wonder who's the last TC to become super at such low latitude. at this rate, i now think she has a good chance to be a Cat5 soon.

[stormstrike]

Guys do you really think Bopha would track way more south? Seems terrible for Sendong-stricken Mindanao.. It hasn't even been a year and Bopha is waaaaaaay stronger than Washi...

[cycloneye]

Does anyone knows how many people live in Palau? If not a direct hit,it will get plenty of this typhoon. I hope they are very prepared and I am praying that all goes well there.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010124
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 AM CHST SAT DEC 1 2012

...STRONG TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES TOWARD PALAU...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE AND KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE
AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 4.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL
675 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TYPHOON BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THIS MOVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 120 MPH. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...4.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
142.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO

[stormstrike]

Does anyone knows how many people live in Palau? If not a direct hit,it will get plenty of this typhoon. I hope they are very prepared and I am praying that all goes well there.

it's around 21k (2011 estimate).. accdg to wikipedia.. and I think Mr. Rob Speta has already emphasized preemptive preparations of Palau prior to Bopha in his previous post....

[euro6208]

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 4.7N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 5.3N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 5.9N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.5N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.2N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 8.5N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.1N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.3N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 4.9N 141.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[euro6208]

WOW! category 4 Bopha with 115 knot winds!....our 10th major typhoon of the season and our season tally is now 24/16/10!

[Crostorm]

[stormstrike]

And Palau is gonna get it head on with its peak intensity at 125 kts. Almost a super typhoon!

[euro6208]

i wouldn't be surprised if bopha was even stronger due to it's very very small very symmetrical size and a classic pinhole eye...it doesn't get any better than this plus she is becoming annular...category 5 anyone? ....i'm thinking 150 knots right now...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010314
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST SAT DEC 1 2012

...STRONG TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD PALAU...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR YAP ISLAND.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE AND KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 4.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
395 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
515 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL
640 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TYPHOON BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH...AND LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THIS MOVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 130 MPH. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...4.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 141.5
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM CHST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO





WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEVELOPED 15 NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD ALL INDICATING
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 26W HAS A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REGARDING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN A STEADY WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT
STR. THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
VENTING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND WILL REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH TAU 36. THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM TAU 36
THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE DECREASE SLIGHTLY. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TYPHOON IN THE STILL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING
A NEAR CONSTANT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 26W WILL MAINTAIN THE STEADY TRACK
DIRECTION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PHILIPPINES BY TAU 84.
THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM LANDFALL THROUGH TAU 120
AS LAND INTERACTION IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120 WITH GFS, GFDN AND
NGPS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN ECMF, WBAR, AND EGRR
INDICATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE AIDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
CERTAINTY WITH A TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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