ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[StormTracker]

interesting system for sure. i'm watiching the developing tail SW of Cuba, this could bring some serious squalls to SFL later tonight.

Was looking at that too! I guess I'd better go do my yard work now!

[FutureEM]

Thanks guys, I think P3 flights always add a little more insight on top of the AF.

[jabman98]

Right now I think Debby is bumping at the verge between the trough and High. Right now GFS is winning as it nudges E. However this doesn't mean the High won't finally grab it and shunt it W along the coast.

A couple of mentions in the model thread about how some of the models a few days ago showed Debby splitting, part of it going east and part going west. Any thoughts on that happening at this point?

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241729
AF302 0204A DEBBY3 HDOB 47 20120624
172000 2852N 08611W 8117 01776 //// +146 //// 060026 028 029 008 01
172030 2850N 08611W 8125 01765 //// +157 //// 063024 026 029 006 01
172100 2848N 08611W 8117 01775 //// +165 //// 066024 025 021 001 05
172130 2847N 08611W 8118 01771 //// +168 //// 064023 024 020 001 01
172200 2845N 08611W 8118 01770 //// +165 //// 064020 022 019 002 01
172230 2843N 08611W 8118 01770 //// +168 //// 059019 020 019 001 01
172300 2841N 08610W 8119 01767 //// +166 //// 062016 018 018 001 01
172330 2840N 08610W 8122 01763 //// +166 //// 058015 016 017 002 01
172400 2838N 08610W 8121 01764 //// +165 //// 058014 015 017 001 01
172430 2836N 08610W 8117 01767 //// +164 //// 058014 014 017 001 01
172500 2835N 08610W 8122 01760 //// +164 //// 058014 014 012 002 01
172530 2833N 08609W 8117 01763 //// +165 //// 055014 014 014 001 01
172600 2832N 08608W 8119 01758 //// +167 //// 048013 014 013 001 01
172630 2830N 08607W 8118 01758 //// +169 //// 046013 013 012 001 01
172700 2829N 08607W 8123 01753 //// +169 //// 035012 013 013 002 01
172730 2827N 08606W 8119 01756 //// +165 //// 033014 016 013 002 05
172800 2826N 08605W 8122 01753 //// +172 //// 045012 014 010 003 01
172830 2825N 08603W 8117 01758 //// +175 //// 061011 012 014 002 05
172900 2823N 08602W 8117 01756 //// +174 //// 049009 010 020 006 01
172930 2822N 08601W 8121 01750 //// +174 //// 029008 009 018 006 01
$$

[Zarniwoop]

Winds are only 5-10 but its been just incessant rain for 12 hours all the way up here in Orlando.

[CrazyC83]

Has there been a reliable SFMR reading lately? Without any, I would go with 55 kt for the intensity, on a conservative analysis of the 77 kt FL winds (supports about 63 kt at its height).

[artist]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
116 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

.HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED FROM TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE STORM MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-250900-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0004.120624T1716Z-120626T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...NORTH PORT...SARASOTA...VENICE...
ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
116 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

[Dave]

[South Texas Storms]

Wow this storm is really depressing me now. I will NEVER forgive the GFS for screwing Texas with this storm. The one time I wanted it to fail miserably. Of course not. Thanks Florida for stealing our rain and making our drought come back.

[Stormcenter]

Really hard to envision a westward movement now. Debby can't even get a cloud into Louisiana today and we are baking under this high pressure.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow this storm is really depressing me now. I will NEVER forgive the GFS for screwing Texas with this storm. The one time I wanted it to fail miserably. Of course not. Thanks Florida for stealing our rain and making our drought come back.

Hey, blame the EURO for creating what ended up being false hope. This is the GFS's victory.

[cycloneye]

Has there been a reliable SFMR reading lately? Without any, I would go with 55 kt for the intensity, on a conservative analysis of the 77 kt FL winds (supports about 63 kt at its height).

This was at that same set good data by SMFR.

51.1 knots (~ 58.7 mph)
Tropical Storm

[brunota2003]

Has there been a reliable SFMR reading lately? Without any, I would go with 55 kt for the intensity, on a conservative analysis of the 77 kt FL winds (supports about 63 kt at its height).

There was one of 53 knots...and near an area where it recorded 35 knot winds, there was a land station that had 35.9 knot winds...so I would deem the 53 knots accurate.

Correction:
The 56 knots occurred on the HDOB set prior, and had a 45 knot wind beside it...the 53 knots was recorded in the same HDOB set as the 77 knot winds.

[Stormcenter]

Just remember Elena.

Really hard to envision a westward movement now. Debby can't even get a cloud into Louisiana today and we are baking under this high pressure.

[Sanibel]

A couple of mentions in the model thread about how some of the models a few days ago showed Debby splitting, part of it going east and part going west. Any thoughts on that happening at this point?

I doubt a surface feature that strong would "split".


Look at the upper WV Tolakram posted drifting N. That would be something if the weakness was the stronger steerer than the High. I'm not saying it will, but that upper outflow is definitely moving N.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow this storm is really depressing me now. I will NEVER forgive the GFS for screwing Texas with this storm. The one time I wanted it to fail miserably. Of course not. Thanks Florida for stealing our rain and making our drought come back.

Hey, blame the EURO for creating what ended up being false hope. This is the GFS's victory.

Yeah that too. But the one time I really wanted the GFS to bust. Just one time. Nope.

[sponger]

This has the potential to cause a wide spread flooding problem. We have had over 15 inches of rain prior to this storm in some places and the ground is very saturated.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241735
XXAA 74178 99291 70862 08196 99998 24404 04042 00516 ///// /////
92667 22003 06045 85401 18605 07039 88999 77999
31313 09608 81715
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 22
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2908N08622W 1718 MBL WND 04551 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 06044 997811 WL150 04051 084 REL 2910N08619W 171548 SPG 2908N0
8622W 171830 =
XXBB 74178 99291 70862 08196 00998 24404 11850 18605 22822 17810
33811 /////
21212 00998 04042 11991 04050 22981 04054 33949 05049 44939 05551
55927 06045 66888 06544 77853 07039 88811 07038
31313 09608 81715
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 22
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2908N08622W 1718 MBL WND 04551 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 06044 997811 WL150 04051 084 REL 2910N08619W 171548 SPG 2908N0
8622W 171830 =
;

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO starting:

[artist]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAKEPORT...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 127 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LAKEPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHERN GLADES COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.