ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[hurricaneCW]

Florence is looking a lot better than Ernesto right now and models were not very thrilled with Florence, still aren't. Wasn't Fay like this though, struggling to get an LLC.

[ROCK]

they found west wind.....thank the creator...i am still going to the bar though.......

[brunota2003]

Plenty of easterly winds...more of those than you can shake a stick at! But alas...not even the white barb of "less than 5 knots" wind pointing westward.

[Shuriken]

The winds at west in the last pass ... wow... I had to check twice if it was my mistake on the layer ...

(Confused...) What are you referring to?

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Love the Isabel eye-vortices avatar. You could drive everyone nuts by making them animate.

[wxwatcher1999]

The winds at west in the last pass ... wow... I had to check twice if it was my mistake on the layer ...

can you explain what you see...i dont quite understand the graphic

[littlevince]

[Dave]

I've been working with King so much tonight is this the first 50 kt on recon or were there more?

035200 1608N 07157W 8429 01607 0144 +165 +126 121049 050 036 002 00

I know...go back and look....

[brunota2003]

Good question...not sure. Been more concerned with wind direction and finding that elusive west wind.

[brunota2003]

It's showing the wind direction and wind speed that the recon aircraft is picking up at flight level. Each barb shows one data plot (taken over a period of 30 seconds).

[Zanthe]

It's showing the wind direction and wind speed that the recon aircraft is picking up at flight level.

Yeah, but what's with the "wow?", not that'd you necessarily know.

[Hammy]

If you're asking about the barbs, basically they point in the direction the wind is coming from, in this case, in the latest pass all of the winds are out of the east and northeast, which indicates it is not rotating back around and is likely no longer closed off

hope that helps ^^

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050403
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120805
035500 1615N 07150W 8429 01610 0143 +169 +137 121044 047 033 001 00
035530 1616N 07149W 8428 01611 0143 +169 +145 119041 044 029 005 00
035600 1617N 07148W 8428 01611 0145 +167 +147 119038 040 032 002 00
035630 1618N 07147W 8430 01608 0147 +161 +149 122037 038 032 003 00
035700 1619N 07146W 8430 01608 0148 +160 +148 123037 037 028 004 00
035730 1620N 07145W 8430 01607 0150 +157 +146 125038 039 028 004 00
035800 1621N 07143W 8432 01608 0151 +160 +126 126044 046 027 004 00
035830 1622N 07142W 8430 01610 0151 +164 +098 127048 048 028 003 00
035900 1623N 07141W 8427 01613 0150 +168 +078 129048 048 028 003 00
035930 1624N 07140W 8433 01608 0150 +170 +068 128050 050 026 002 00
040000 1625N 07139W 8430 01611 0151 +171 +055 129050 050 028 002 00
040030 1626N 07138W 8430 01612 0152 +169 +070 128049 050 028 001 00
040100 1627N 07136W 8430 01612 0154 +165 +092 127049 049 027 003 00
040130 1628N 07135W 8431 01612 0157 +160 +103 124045 048 027 003 00
040200 1629N 07134W 8429 01613 0157 +157 +109 125044 045 027 003 00
040230 1631N 07133W 8430 01611 0157 +151 +132 126042 042 027 002 00
040300 1632N 07132W 8430 01611 0157 +150 +130 128042 042 026 003 00
040330 1633N 07131W 8429 01612 0157 +155 +127 130041 042 027 002 00
040400 1634N 07130W 8425 01613 0154 +155 +123 129042 043 027 002 03
040430 1636N 07130W 8431 01610 0154 +157 +112 125042 043 /// /// 03
$$
;

[ozonepete]

I give up and going to the bar......

See you there, lol!

[Ntxw]

0z GFS continues to race quickly nearing CA and into Belize. Ernesto better slow down if he's going to give himself any chance at organizing with such broad depiction by the model.

[brunota2003]

I love ROCK's attitude Just remember...Storm2Ker's don't drink and drive! NO DRIVING DRUNK!

[Shuriken]

If you're asking about the barbs, basically they point in the direction the wind is coming from, in this case, in the latest pass all of the winds are out of the east and northeast, which indicates it is not rotating back around and is likely no longer closed off

hope that helps ^^

I.e., no encountered westerly inflow.

...that'll be Exhibit B in my case against dry air (laying to the west) having anything to do with the intensity funk.

[ozonepete]

Looking like final advisory later based on surface conditions. Starting to remind me of Lili in 2002 after the shear let up it was still so disorganized and opened to a wave, but restrengthened again later (which i believe many of the models are still forecasting, at least to some degree, after it passes Jamaica)

Are you saying that the final advisory is coming soon? Didn't understand what you meant by "final advisory later".

[littlevince]

The winds at west in the last pass ... wow... I had to check twice if it was my mistake on the layer ...

(Confused...) What are you referring to?

Hope this help, with a organized system, winds turn cyclonic around the center:



And Recon finds winds in the opposite direction in this sector. Ernesto is really in trouble, at least at this time.
Sorry for my bad english, it's not my native language.

[wxwatcher1999]

thanks to all for the explanations....i understand now

[brunota2003]

I love the graphic...do you sell that as a tshirt with "Storm2K Tropic Hunters" written across the top? Or perhaps "West Wind Hunter"?

He meant there was no west winds found and didn't believe it, so he had to recheck the graphic. (in the first post)