ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[USTropics]

If this ends up following the GFS scenario and making landfall in Florida, huge kudos to Air Force Met(one of our Storm2k mets) for calling this before the NHC even upgraded to TS Debbie. This was his post when most of the model guidance had Debbie heading towards Texas:

As I sat here looking at the satellite loop and the shear, one thing did occur to me. Even though I think the upper levels are conducive for a movement to the west eventually...we could get into one of those situations where the center reforms and reforms...and gets tugged east and NE by convection. So much so that it really does go NE into FL.

The steering wouldnt take it there...but maybe that is what the GFS is picking up on. Don't know. This may be one of those situations where the low is constantly getting tugged by the convection to the NE and E and before you know it...it works its way into the break in the ridge.

I think this is a possibility.

[Dave]

Not getting any vdm, drops, or recco symbols on GE at this time, only the tracks & wind direction...just an fyi. (all switches are on btw)

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241739
AF302 0204A DEBBY3 HDOB 48 20120624
173000 2821N 08600W 8117 01753 //// +179 //// 042007 010 003 002 01
173030 2820N 08558W 8119 01750 //// +182 //// 080001 005 004 001 05
173100 2819N 08557W 8121 01747 //// +185 //// 211004 006 003 003 05
173130 2817N 08556W 8115 01752 //// +180 //// 254006 006 /// /// 05
173200 2817N 08556W 8115 01752 //// +180 //// 271004 006 /// /// 05
173230 2818N 08559W 8122 01747 //// +182 //// 015002 004 007 001 05
173300 2819N 08600W 8118 01751 //// +181 //// 037008 011 002 002 01
173330 2820N 08602W 8119 01751 //// +178 //// 043011 012 007 002 01
173400 2821N 08603W 8117 01752 //// +175 //// 047012 013 021 002 01
173430 2822N 08604W 8121 01748 //// +175 //// 051012 013 021 002 01
173500 2823N 08606W 8121 01748 //// +176 //// 039015 016 017 001 01
173530 2824N 08607W 8119 01752 //// +171 //// 038018 020 016 001 01
173600 2826N 08608W 8119 01753 //// +171 //// 039016 020 015 001 01
173630 2827N 08610W 8117 01758 //// +171 //// 038017 018 009 002 01
173700 2828N 08611W 8121 01751 //// +168 //// 039018 018 013 001 01
173730 2829N 08612W 8118 01758 //// +168 //// 039017 018 012 002 01
173800 2830N 08614W 8115 01760 //// +167 //// 042016 017 010 002 01
173830 2831N 08615W 8123 01756 //// +165 //// 043017 018 013 000 01
173900 2832N 08616W 8115 01763 //// +165 //// 041017 017 017 002 01
173930 2834N 08618W 8119 01759 //// +166 //// 036021 024 017 001 01
$$

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
132 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 133 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR WARM MINERAL SPRINGS...OR NEAR NORTH PORT...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WARM MINERAL SPRINGS.
MYAKKA CITY.
MYAKKA HEAD.

[chargurl]

I can't post video but NBC-2 news in Southwest Florida has video of a tornado on the ground about 30 minutes ago in se Collier county. Tornado watch for our area until 8:00pm tonight.

[Dave]

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL running:

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241742
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 24/17:30:30Z
B. 28 deg 20 min N
085 deg 59 min W
C. 850 mb 1356 m
D. 53 kt
E. 347 deg 62 nm
F. 053 deg 70 kt
G. 349 deg 78 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 11 C / 1832 m
J. 18 C / 1827 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 23
MAX FL WIND 78 KT N QUAD 17:05:00Z

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 241749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. NO SIGNIFICANT
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE TRACK
BEYOND THAT TIME IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tolakram]

Same, so it's not just you.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

[artist]

If this ends up following the GFS scenario and making landfall in Florida, huge kudos to Air Force Met(one of our Storm2k mets) for calling this before the NHC even upgraded to TS Debbie. This was his post when most of the model guidance had Debbie heading towards Texas:

As I sat here looking at the satellite loop and the shear, one thing did occur to me. Even though I think the upper levels are conducive for a movement to the west eventually...we could get into one of those situations where the center reforms and reforms...and gets tugged east and NE by convection. So much so that it really does go NE into FL.

The steering wouldnt take it there...but maybe that is what the GFS is picking up on. Don't know. This may be one of those situations where the low is constantly getting tugged by the convection to the NE and E and before you know it...it works its way into the break in the ridge.

I think this is a possibility.

Yes, kudos! I believe Aric may have thought so too, he mentioned it continuing to relocate ne under the convection

[northjaxpro]

Debby now at 60 mph at 2:00. Still moving northeast at 5 mph, moving closer toward the Big Bend/ FL Panhandle coast. 993 mb.

[Stormcenter]

Here is a pretty good loop of Debby.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=8

[Noah]

Winds in Sarasota county 30mph. We had mostly rain for 2 days non stop.. Now the winds are here. TWC just said movement is NE.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL 36 hours, heading east:



EURO 24 hour:

[SouthFLTropics]

If this ends up following the GFS scenario and making landfall in Florida, huge kudos to Air Force Met(one of our Storm2k mets) for calling this before the NHC even upgraded to TS Debbie. This was his post when most of the model guidance had Debbie heading towards Texas:

As I sat here looking at the satellite loop and the shear, one thing did occur to me. Even though I think the upper levels are conducive for a movement to the west eventually...we could get into one of those situations where the center reforms and reforms...and gets tugged east and NE by convection. So much so that it really does go NE into FL.

The steering wouldnt take it there...but maybe that is what the GFS is picking up on. Don't know. This may be one of those situations where the low is constantly getting tugged by the convection to the NE and E and before you know it...it works its way into the break in the ridge.

I think this is a possibility.

Agreed on that...Kudos to AFM. Sometimes you have to disregard the scenarios that the models are showing and go with your gut. The models don't seem to handle center reformations really well and I think AFM hit on that very well with his post.

SFT

[johngaltfla]

So much for a relaxing Sunday. One tornado 3 miles NW of me, one 24 miles SSE of me. Toto, did I suddenly land in Kansas?

Oh, and I'll say it again:

Kudos to AFM as he nailed it.

And yes,

The GFS IS WINNING!

[tolakram]

VDM's are going to another recon KML for some reason.

[Recurve]

Just getting a break in the rain here in St. Pete after a period of downpour, been raining since last night basically nonstop.

The stream of moisture making that long tail from the south and the shield spreading north into Georgia and Alabama make this an interesting wide-ranging rainmaker, and I hope not much more.