ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Portastorm]

PLEASE READ!

Let's cut the sarcasm and insults, folks. Really. This is a life threatening situation. Stick to the storm.

[k-man]

The weather channel is reporting that it's moving much faster now....eye may hit coast in just a few hours. Power blinked on and off, but is back on now. Seems like South Jersey is getting the worst by far. We're not too far north of Atlantic City..maybe 60 miles. I thought it would be worse. I experienced Charley, Frances and Jean while living in Orlando and all three were worse than this. Charley was much, much worse.[/quote]

Well, New Jersey has never experienced Charley, Frances or Jeanne and it is rare that we experience any kind of direct hit from a tropical system. From your experience from living in Orlando and of hurricanes, I would assume that you know that the Northeastern quadrant where YOU are living is the worst. Plus, I would think that you would not have to ask how much worse this is going to be. Read up on the storm history of NJ. The NWS is still calling for extraordinary tides. Being in Red Bank, you should be able to see/tell the buildup along the shore line of housing and business which will sustain heavy damage. From your own personal experience, what do YOU think it's going to be like? Please share.[/quote]


In our area I would guess that there will be damage on the beachfront and a lot of erosion. But the storm speed increasing will probably decrease the surge risk greatly for my area.

I'm just sharing my thoughts and those of my friends and family. They've been hyping this storm for days on end as something we'll all tell our grandchildren about. I can see that south Jersey is taking quite a whollop, but it's not that bad here.

I know everyone here wants this to be the storm of the century, but so far it hasn't lived up to the hype. That's not a good thing....because the next time, nobody will listen.

Just sharing my observations as someone who is about 60 miles to the north of where the eye will make landfall. I'll report if things get worse.

Added by moderator Stephanie - Personal disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, New Jersey has never experienced Charley, Frances or Jeanne and it is rare that we experience any kind of direct hit from a tropical system. From your experience from living in Orlando and of hurricanes, I would assume that you know that the Northeastern quadrant where YOU are living is the worst. Plus, I would think that you would not have to ask how much worse this is going to be. Read up on the storm history of NJ. The NWS is still calling for extraordinary tides. Being in Red Bank, you should be able to see/tell the buildup along the shore line of housing and business which will sustain heavy damage. From your own personal experience, what do YOU think it's going to be like? Please share.

This may sound heartless...but given the complacency of so many people in the coastal communities, I would actually be worried if the surge causes less damage than feared and does not completely destroy structures. If people are able to safely ride out the storm with some flood damage, they would still be willing to stay the next time--even though such an attitude would have been deadly in the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes, the last big tropical cyclones to flood New Jersey beaches (besides nor’easters like the 1962 Ash Wednesday system). I am really worried about the consequences as I have known human nature too long to place a positive spin on a better-than-expected outcome.

Again, I hope for little grave loss of life...but I fear the bravado stemming from thousands of residents concluding they made it despite the official “hype.”

[windnrain]

Storm surge for New York

Does this mean that the storm surge there will be less bad?

[Evil Jeremy]

I know everyone here wants this to be the storm of the century

Trust me, no one here wants this to be the storm of the century. But just look at what this has done to places like Atlantic City. This is a historic storm.

[Stephanie]

Well, New Jersey has never experienced Charley, Frances or Jeanne and it is rare that we experience any kind of direct hit from a tropical system. From your experience from living in Orlando and of hurricanes, I would assume that you know that the Northeastern quadrant where YOU are living is the worst. Plus, I would think that you would not have to ask how much worse this is going to be. Read up on the storm history of NJ. The NWS is still calling for extraordinary tides. Being in Red Bank, you should be able to see/tell the buildup along the shore line of housing and business which will sustain heavy damage. From your own personal experience, what do YOU think it's going to be like? Please share.

This may sound heartless...but given the complacency of so many people in the coastal communities, I would actually be worried if the surge causes less damage than feared and does not completely destroy structures. If people are able to safely ride out the storm with some flood damage, they would still be willing to stay the next time--even though such an attitude would have been deadly in the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes, the last big tropical cyclones to flood New Jersey beaches (besides nor’easters like the 1962 Ash Wednesday system). I am really worried about the consequences as I have known human nature too long to place a positive spin on a better-than-expected outcome.

Again, I hope for little grave loss of life...but I fear the bravado stemming from thousands of residents concluding they made it despite the official “hype.”

I totally agree.

[Stephanie]

I know everyone here wants this to be the storm of the century

Trust me, no one here wants this to be the storm of the century. But just look at what this has done to places like Atlantic City. This is a historic storm.

Thank you.

[k-man]

Well, New Jersey has never experienced Charley, Frances or Jeanne and it is rare that we experience any kind of direct hit from a tropical system. From your experience from living in Orlando and of hurricanes, I would assume that you know that the Northeastern quadrant where YOU are living is the worst. Plus, I would think that you would not have to ask how much worse this is going to be. Read up on the storm history of NJ. The NWS is still calling for extraordinary tides. Being in Red Bank, you should be able to see/tell the buildup along the shore line of housing and business which will sustain heavy damage. From your own personal experience, what do YOU think it's going to be like? Please share.

This may sound heartless...but given the complacency of so many people in the coastal communities, I would actually be worried if the surge causes less damage than feared and does not completely destroy structures. If people are able to safely ride out the storm with some flood damage, they would still be willing to stay the next time--even though such an attitude would have been deadly in the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes, the last big tropical cyclones to flood New Jersey beaches (besides nor’easters like the 1962 Ash Wednesday system). I am really worried about the consequences as I have known human nature too long to place a positive spin on a better-than-expected outcome.

Again, I hope for little grave loss of life...but I fear the bravado stemming from thousands of residents concluding they made it despite the official “hype.”

That's exactly what is going to happen. And you're right....it's not a good thing.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Storm surge for New York

Does this mean that the storm surge there will be less bad?

Hard to say for sure, but an earlier arrival could actually be just as bad or a little worse. If the winds stay up very strong for a few hours after landfall (which is highly likely due to it's becoming hybrid), as the center comes ashore near Atlantic City the winds will turn to southeast here and that will push the water directly onto the local beaches and up into NY Harbor. So water could be piling up extraordinarily high as high tide comes in between 8 and 9PM tonight.

[karenfromheaven]

so the guys though it was cool to take a historic ship out into a hurricane... 2 missing / rest the USCG rescued......off of NC

FOX NEWS reporting with live video of the rescue...

I haven't been following the story, but it reminds me of a larger sailing schooner named Fantome, which was lost during hurricane Mitch while it desperately tried to maneuver at sea out of the storm's path. Here is an account of the story: http://www.fortogden.com/fantommiamiherald.html A vessel of that size can be lost in port trying to ride out a storm, which is why Navy vessels head out to sea. The trouble with sailing vessels is that they don't have sufficient engine horsepower to overcome the "hull speed" determined by their length at the waterline, so they can't usually outrun a hurricane's forward motion, or stay in its navigable semicircle. Once they get caught in the dangerous semicircle, they would have to try to ride it out. Unfortunately, the Fantome didn't make it, and the last communication from the Captain was something like "Oh my....".

[lhpfish]

Storm isn't even near landfall yet and look at the problems it's created. We had 50 knot gusts here in Florida when the storm was off south Carolina.

It's going to get much worse.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[windnrain]

Storm surge for New York

Does this mean that the storm surge there will be less bad?

Hard to say for sure, but an earlier arrival could actually be just as bad or a little worse. If the winds stay up very strong for a few hours after landfall (which is highly likely due to it's becoming hybrid), as the center comes ashore near Atlantic City the winds will turn to southeast here and that will push the water directly onto the local beaches and up into NY Harbor. So water could be piling up extraordinarily high as high tide comes in between 8 and 9PM tonight.

I'm very confused. I mean, I know its a good thing that it will spend less time... but it seems like it may be the perfect time to hit, right? Right at low tide?

[artist]

Storm surge for New York

Does this mean that the storm surge there will be less bad?

Hard to say for sure, but an earlier arrival could actually be just as bad or a little worse. If the winds stay up very strong for a few hours after landfall (which is highly likely due to it's becoming hybrid), as the center comes ashore near Atlantic City the winds will turn to southeast here and that will push the water directly onto the local beaches and up into NY Harbor. So water could be piling up extraordinarily high as high tide comes in between 8 and 9PM tonight.

I'm very confused. I mean, I know its a good thing that it will spend less time... but it seems like it may be the perfect time to hit, right? Right at low tide?

if I understand correctly, the water will still be coming with the storm, even though it hits at low tide, thus continuing possibly even into high tide. Someone correct me if I am incorrect.

[sleepysilverdoor]

Brigantine Beach sea wall has collapsed. The police chief is telling all resident to leave NOW. 70% of the 9500 residents stayed to ride out the storm.

Brigantine PD hasn't heard of this as of about 20 minutes ago...

Also, hi everybody! Frequent lurker, finally posting.

[mred53]

NOT A TRUSTED SOURCE - Tolakram

Brigantine Beach sea wall has collapsed. The police chief is telling all resident to leave NOW. 70% of the 9500 residents stayed to ride out the storm.

This was just released about 30 minutes ago:

http://local.nixle.com/alert/4905332/

ALERT ALERT ALERT ALERT
YOU CAN NOT LEAVE THE ISLAND
There is NO More Evacuations off the Island.
After 4PM there will be no more Evacuations
STAY IN YOUR HOME
DO NOT GO OUT SIDE.
Move all personal belongings to a second floor.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Predicting landfall near or over Cape May, NJ...probably around 4 or 4:15 pm EDT.

[Tonic]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it common practice to take large vessels out to sea versus keeping them tied up during large storms, as it is generally a safer bet to ride it out and not risk breaking moorings and wreaking all kinds of havoc at dock?

I HIGHLY doubt the crew of this tall ship took the vessel out for a joy ride.

so the guys though it was cool to take a historic ship out into a hurricane... 2 missing / rest the USCG rescued......off of NC

FOX NEWS reporting with live video of the rescue...

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012/10/ ... 17-aboard/

Says it was a replica. They were travelling from Connecticut to Florida.

[FutureEM]

I'm not a meteorologist, neither can I claim myself a "professional" anything at this time. However, it seems to me that this storm will not be as damaging as feared...all the flooding I have seen so far has literally been right along the beach, the storm surge has inundated streets with a few feet of water about 4-5 blocks from the shore but I have yet to see devastating damage. Just my opinion here.


______________________
Personal disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Downdraft]

Sandy will officially still be a hurricane when it makes landfall. Because it's speeding up it will officially still be warm core at landfall. I bet the NHC didn't count on that. Landfall around Atlantic City as a 940 mb hurricane not extra-tropical.

[tolakram]

This appears to be official, linked from the Police website.

Brigantine Beach sea wall has collapsed. The police chief is telling all resident to leave NOW. 70% of the 9500 residents stayed to ride out the storm.

This was just released about 30 minutes ago:

http://local.nixle.com/alert/4905332/

ALERT ALERT ALERT ALERT
YOU CAN NOT LEAVE THE ISLAND
There is NO More Evacuations off the Island.
After 4PM there will be no more Evacuations
STAY IN YOUR HOME
DO NOT GO OUT SIDE.
Move all personal belongings to a second floor.