ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 763
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormhunter7

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2981 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:02 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html looks about right.. recon is close.. if you rock the Shortwave imagery.... and based on recon overlaid... looks like will see a center fix soon.


**as i hit enter... new data.. recon did a circle.. usually means they found something* 15.0667N 69.5833W
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2982 Postby fci » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:05 am

Bocadude85 wrote:what are the chances this makes landfall in south florida first before heading to the panhandle?


Looks like there is consistency between models of the storm either hitting the Lower Keys or passing just south of them.
I don't think I have seen where the storm actually crosses the Peninsula before the GOM, maybe a graze of the SW tip?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
Top
User avatar
Texashawk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 1:50 am
Location: Missouri City, TX (Houston)

#2983 Postby Texashawk » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:07 am

065530 1504N 06935W 8429 01490 0000 +179 +170 137003 006 035 000 00

...Ladies and gentlemen, I present... our possible new MLC?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2984 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:08 am

looking at the loop, looks like the system is going wsw toward the end? Or am I just seein things
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 9_sat.html
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2985 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:21 am

Well nice to see agreement from the models, but this system doesn't seem to be playing ball at all right now, sorta reminds me of Katrina when the storm just ignored the models and forced them west.

In the short term its getting hard to believe we will see a hard right that will be required for the models to be right.

Anyway ECM goes down to 972mbs before landfall, so a decent hurricane thats for sure.

EDIT- then again looking at the ECVM, at 009hrs it looks very close to where this system is right now, it rotates NNE and then moves west.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2986 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:30 am

Guess I will start the 06z run GFS? ermmm here is 00 hrs

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2987 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:31 am

Location for 06z looks ok, maybe a touch too far east. I'm interested to see whether it does the same thing as the 00z ECM and rotate the low northwards into S.Haiti.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2988 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:31 am

hr 12

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2989 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:35 am

hr 24
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2990 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:37 am

Well the GFS still taking this system through the heart of Haiti then, this is going to be a most interesting few days!!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2991 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:39 am

hr 36
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2992 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:44 am

hr 48
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2993 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:48 am

hr 60

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2994 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:52 am

SWFL hr 72

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2995 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:56 am

hr 84

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2996 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:57 am

Clips SW florida this run and hits the keys as well...

Looks like a eastward shift on the 06z run, heading up the coast at 84hrs.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2997 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:59 am

hr 96
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2998 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:01 am

06z GFS further north than the 00z run, strengthening in the E.Gulf.

Hard to forecast very much based on the models till we see how this LLC that has developed with the MLC moves over the next few hous and whether it lifts as far north as the models are suggesting.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2999 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:02 am

hr 102 (e shift this run, panama city hit on fl panhandle)
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re:

#3000 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:03 am

KWT wrote:06z GFS further north than the 00z run, strengthening in the E.Gulf.

Hard to forecast very much based on the models till we see how this LLC that has developed with the MLC moves over the next few hous and whether it lifts as far north as the models are suggesting.

totally agree
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests