ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[jinftl]

Finally we get a storm building some ACE for the season as it could end up being a hurricane for 2+ days in total

[EBrads146]

is it me or does it have a slight annular structure???

I see it. The last few frames on the visible and infrared have definitely shown a consolidated, more circular structure. The western band in particular disappeared. My caveat to this though is that Gordon hasn't gone through an EWRC.

Interesting (and rather beautiful) storm to follow either way. Hope they're prepared on the Azores.

[cycloneye]

Web Cam at Sao Miguel Island,Azores.



http://www.azoreswebcams.com/sao-miguel ... a-delgada/

[jinftl]

Think we have a Cat 2 at 5pm? Mighty impressive looking

[TheEuropean]

Yes, we have:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 36.4W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON HAS CONTINUED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED AND WARMED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE
COOLED AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE T5.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB AT 1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE STRONGER
INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN 36
TO 48 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS IF
NOT A LITTLE SOONER. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS
THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AS THE DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
50N/20W STEERS GORDON QUICKLY EASTWARD. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TUG GORDON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES...A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
FASTER...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF MODEL THROUGH DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 34.1N 36.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 34.4N 33.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 35.4N 29.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 36.8N 25.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 38.0N 22.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 39.0N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z 39.0N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Weatherguy173]

Think we have a Cat 2 at 5pm? Mighty impressive looking

maybe... with a slightly annular structure, it is a possibility

[TheEuropean]

Think we have a Cat 2 at 5pm? Mighty impressive looking

maybe... with a slightly annular structure, it is a possibility

Maybe? We already have a CAT2 at 5pm.

[Weatherguy173]

Think we have a Cat 2 at 5pm? Mighty impressive looking

maybe... with a slightly annular structure, it is a possibility

Maybe? We already have a CAT2 at 5pm.

i started typing before the update, oops

[CrazyC83]

At this rate, Cat 3 may not be out of reach, especially with the ADT.

[jinftl]

This would have been nuts to ask 18 hours ago...could Gordon briefly reach Cat 3 in the next several hours before starting to hit cooler water? NHC gives it an almost 1 in 7 probability (15%) now! The pressure is now 968 mb - down from 983 mb at 2pm. Was the 2pm estimate too high or are we seeing some degree of RI?

[Weatherguy173]

At this rate, Cat 3 may not be out of reach, especially with the ADT.

that would be bad for the azores if that happens

[CrazyC83]

Has there EVER been a major hurricane in the NE Atlantic in the satellite era? Could Gordon make a run at history?

[Weatherguy173]

Has there EVER been a major hurricane in the NE Atlantic in the satellite era? Could Gordon make a run at history?

i can't remember off of the top of my head, but there was Hannah in 1959 and it was a CAT 2 in the NE Atlantic. It was a CAT 3 before it entered the NE Atlantic. i don't know if you would call that the "satellite era", but there were satellite images of hurricanes that year.

[Hammy]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Charley in 1992 was 110mph and according to a few places I read a year or so ago it may have been a Cat 3 briefly, but this is closest one i can find

[jinftl]

What is crazy is that Hurricane Gordon in 2006 struck the Azores! Can we say "Gordon" is a name that maybe should be retired after this year out of consideration of the folks in the Azores dealing with him twice in 6 years!!! The remnants of Gordon caused 114 mph wind gusts on the coast of Spain...will this Gordon do the same?


Hurricane Gordon in 2006 was the first tropical cyclone since 1992 to affect the Azores while retaining tropical characteristics and the remnants subsequently affected Spain, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. The only land area affected while Gordon was tropical – the Azores – sustained little damage, in spite of wind gusts reaching hurricane force on Santa Maria Island. Impact was much more significant from the storm in its extratropical phase. In Spain, wind gusts reached 114 mph (183 km/h) along the northwest coast and left 100,000 people without power. Five people in the country sustained storm-related injuries. Further north, the storm brought a surge of tropical air to Ireland and the United Kingdom, contributing to record warm temperatures. In Northern Ireland, high winds left 120,000 people without power and caused one injury.

Late on September 18, while Gordon was beginning to accelerate to the northeast, a tropical storm watch was issued for all of the Azores. The hurricane was expected to weaken to tropical storm-force before affecting the islands. When it became apparent that Gordon would continue intensifying, a hurricane warning replaced the watch about 27 hours before the strongest winds affected the region. The advance of the storm forced the closure of all schools in the region. Concurrently, officials increased the number of emergency workers on stand-by. The two westernmost islands – Corvo and Flores – were placed under a red alert, the highest on a four-level scale, which indicated the greatest threat for severe weather. The remainder of the archipelago was placed on low alert.

Ultimately, the Azores escaped significant damage as the hurricane passed farther south than expected. Overall impact was limited to toppled trees and power lines, leaving portions of Santa Maria Island without electrical service. Santa Maria recorded sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h), with gusts to 82 mph (132 km/h).

While passing northwest of Spain, the remnants of Gordon produced strong wind gusts, reaching 114 mph (183 km/h) at Punta Candieira in Galicia on the country's northwest coast. The nearby city of A Coruña recorded sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h),[1] while further inland, a station near Madrid reported winds of 65 mph (107 km/h).

Damage in Spain from the remnants of Gordon in 2006!!!


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gordon_(2006)

[Hello32020]

Didn't see anything on the last few pages so I figured I'd ask, could this possibly make landfall in the Iberian Peninsula as a tropical cyclone? I can't remember if past systems that have affected the Azores are usually this strong.
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Thought this might be more relevant/a possibility now. I know the NHC has it becoming extratropical before then, but Vince was able to survive back in 2005.

[CrazyC83]

Are there any S2K members in the Azores? I would make a thread for preps/obs but not sure if it will get any activity.

[littlevince]

Does anyone know how to extrapolate Gordon winds to an altitude of 950 meters above sea level ?

[Cyclenall]

This would have been nuts to ask 18 hours ago...could Gordon briefly reach Cat 3 in the next several hours before starting to hit cooler water? NHC gives it an almost 1 in 7 probability (15%) now! The pressure is now 968 mb - down from 983 mb at 2pm. Was the 2pm estimate too high or are we seeing some degree of RI?

Even though I don't take that product seriously, it showed a 1% chance of Gordon becoming a major hurricane in 12 hours and that is now 15%! Also, that product only showed a 11% chance for Gordon to become a category 2 storm and it did that easily. This is already a bit insane and it becoming a major would be the cherry on top...making it one of the strongest hurricanes on record in that area, becoming the first major and strongest so far of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season all while up there! To your last point, I think it was a bit of both; RI and estimates too low because a 20 knot increase in 6 hours is RI levels but it didn't suddenly look amazing.

Of course I didn't expect this and is one of the largest surprises so far this year, I almost didn't even bother to check it because I thought it would have already fallen apart by now .

Now this Gordon has completed its copy of the last Gordon in 2006. Its insane how similar these two TC's are with the same name 6 years ago!! My last post stated how similar they were already and the two aspects I outlined were: CAT1 strength or over and an annular appearance, for Gordon to be nearly the same...fulfilled!!