ATL: ISAAC - Models

[N2FSU]

I haven't posted in awhile, but following closely from Tallahassee. Looks like a pretty good consensus overnight of an eastward shift of all the major models. The question now is, will Isaac follow suit anytime soon, AND how will the 12Z models react when the more southern fix is incorporated into the initialization?

[KWT]

A quicker run this time round which causes the east shift we see on this run. Still gets into the E.Gulf.

We will see, its hard to believe that the LLC that appears to be present further south will move that far north in the next 24hrs, but we will see!

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFS further north than the 00z run, strengthening in the E.Gulf.

Hard to forecast very much based on the models till we see how this LLC that has developed with the MLC moves over the next few hous and whether it lifts as far north as the models are suggesting.

totally agree

He has slowed drastically...Hes ready for some poleward motion..

[N2FSU]

6Z GFS shows Apalachicola to PCB landfall. Hard to put too much stock in the 6Z though.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it does seem as if Isaac has really slowed in his forward motion early this morning. I was wondering if anyone else noticed that trend. But, Destruction5 I agree with you.

[KWT]

I think what your seeing is the system finally getting stacked, makes it look like its slowed down when in truth the MLC isn't running away from the LLC.

Anyway the idea of the 06z GFS looks good, just I've got a few doubts it gets quite that far north in the short term.

[northjaxpro]

Makes since KWT. The vertical stacking may be finally occuring with Isaac. This system has been so fickle and unpredictable. I know we will see more changes in the next few days. NOTHING is set in stone with this particular tropical cyclone.

[ronjon]

Are we coming full circle on the models again? The 06z GFS track looks like it was 24-36 hrs ago before the westward shift in the models - back to a west coast FL hugger. This shortwave moving through the SE has been hard for the models to grab onto. Looks for another shift east on the NHC track. Tampa still not out of the woods - in fact, back to nail biting again.

[KWT]

Indeed the models do seem to be coming back ronjon, probably thanks to the data found last night.

We will see, still not sure what will happen with this!

[northjaxpro]

Are we coming full circle on the models again? The 06z GFS track looks like it was 24-36 hrs ago before the westward shift in the models - back to a west coast FL hugger. This shortwave moving through the SE has been hard for the models to grab onto. Looks for another shift east on the NHC track. Tampa still not out of the woods - in fact, back to nail biting again.

No one should let their guard down! Period. Everyone should be vigilant. I am sure we will see more adjustments with the track as we progress through the next few days.

[meriland23]

My thoughts on the track with this (and this is a total opinion) given coordinates is something like this... just my thoughts/guess..

[KWT]

Worth noting though guys that the ECM DOES show this relocation and still takes it into Haiti on its 00z run.

So the end result may not be that much different, we will have to see.

[meriland23]

Worth noting though guys that the ECM DOES show this relocation and still takes it into Haiti on its 00z run.

So the end result may not be that much different, we will have to see.

Better start bookin it then, haiti is 72W 18N. Isaac is about at 70-71W now and still going west..

[allicat1214]

Morning everyone,

Long time lurker here....Wouldn't a model that initiates 100 miles from the actual center be rather far off in its landfall location??

I'm just southwest of NOLA and don't really have a sense of security with the 4 am track going to our east knowing it was based on the wrong center. Most of my friends and neighbors will see a Pensacola landfall and think we're okay.

One of our TV mets is at least showing the difference between radar and tropical forecast points, saying the longer it goes more west rather than going north it will go along the western side of the cone.

[BigB0882]

This thing better start moving NW and fast. I am not talking WNW then finally NW. It needs to go NW rather quickly. I know center relocations may not make a huge difference but continuing to head due West for hours and hours surely will affect landfall, wouldn't it? I remember Katrina going WSW and throwing everyone off.

[meriland23]

This thing better start moving NW and fast. I am not talking WNW then finally NW. It needs to go NW rather quickly. I know center relocations may not make a huge difference but continuing to head due West for hours and hours surely will affect landfall, wouldn't it? I remember Katrina going WSW and throwing everyone off.

It is teetering on not hitting hisp at all, the more time passes, the more proposterous the idea of it having to have to move practically due north in order to stay on track is.. thought this system, in its entirely, has been nothing but a ridiculous entity that defied odds lol. But in my opinion, I see this trecking over jamaica, maybe nw by then. And yes, it would change it TREMENDOUSLY

[Nimbus]

Recon is finding a slow NW crawl real time parallel to the NHC track.

[perk]

I still think the NHC has Isaac too far north.

[Blown Away]

06Z
Most of the guidance now east of the NHC track.

[perk]

Recon is finding a slow NW crawl real time parallel to the NHC track.

Then the track coordinates on their ir loop is wrong.