ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3001 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:54 pm

MBryant wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Terry wrote:I realize that human life is more important, but I was sad to learn the the Atlantic City boardwalk and beaches are home to many homeless cats... It's now under water.



very sad....The lives of animals are just as important as humans...


Check the exaggeration. Important? Yes. Just as important as humans? No way.

Save the opinions...neither the time nor the place.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3002 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:55 pm

Timaeus wrote:
Can anyone link these weather stations in NYC that are reporting 50 mph sustained? The highest I've found is 28 mph.


Here are the NWS official reports: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... ype=hourly

Here's a sample from that link:
[top]

[top]

Code: Select all

000
ASUS41 KPHI 291930
RWRPHI

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

NOTE:  "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

 * = STATION DOES NOT REPORT PRECIPITATION (E.G. RAIN, SNOW, ETC.)
        OR FOG.

NJZ015>026-292000-
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
POMONA         HVY RAIN  59  57  94 N31G55    28.41F VSB 3/4
MILLVILLE      HVY RAIN  55  54  94 N21G38    28.56F FOG
WRIGHTSTOWN    HVY RAIN  59  57  94 N39G69    28.53F FOG
LAKEHURST      RAIN      60  57  89 NE23G40   28.55F FOG
MOUNT HOLLY    RAIN      57  55  94 N28G39    28.57F FOG
TRENTON        RAIN      59  54  82 NE29G46   28.63F
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#3003 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:56 pm

From NBC News, but they don't specify where.

By early afternoon gusts over 70 mph were recorded across the region.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49593609/ns ... I7ev6KDpRI
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3004 Postby stewart715 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:57 pm

Hurricane Sandy: 4 PM ET, 90 mph winds, Cat 1, 940 mb, moving WNW at 28 mph. wxch.nl/r1tYL6
Last edited by stewart715 on Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#3005 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:58 pm

000
WTNT63 KNHC 291956
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
400 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY MOVING TOWARD CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#3006 Postby MBryant » Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:58 pm

FutureEM wrote:I'm not a meteorologist, neither can I claim myself a "professional" anything at this time. However, it seems to me that this storm will not be as damaging as feared...all the flooding I have seen so far has literally been right along the beach, the storm surge has inundated streets with a few feet of water about 4-5 blocks from the shore but I have yet to see devastating damage. Just my opinion here.


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you're jumping the gun. The worst of the storm is still hours away. Even AFTER landfall, the surge not directly affected by the low pressures around the eye will continue to rise because the winds will become more perpendicular to the shoreline.

It's like declaring a game over after the first quarter.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3007 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:59 pm


HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
400 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY MOVING TOWARD CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3008 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:02 pm

The surge timing for New York doesn't look good. The back end with the SE winds looks perfectly timed for high tide to my internet amateur unprofessional eye.



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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3009 Postby CapeCodDave » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:03 pm

Coming in strong on Cape Cod. Piers are underwater. Some trees down. Lots of power outages. Gusts are lifting the wavetops off and blowing big shrouds of white spray across the bay at high speed. Lots of people walking the sidewalks and still driving around.

Here's a quick clip of conditions in Cotuit at 1500 (peak gusts are predicted to happen at 1700). Feels more intense than any of Irene's gusts.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp6FPl8sb8M[/youtube]
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#3010 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:06 pm

Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane
Atlantic City pressure now 958.7 mb (28.31") breaking city's all-time record of 960.7 mb (28.37"). #Sandy #njwx
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3011 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:07 pm

Sanibel wrote:The surge timing for New York doesn't look good. The back end with the SE winds looks perfectly timed for high tide to my internet amateur unprofessional eye.

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You are right. I'm really afraid winds will go over to southeast from 6 to 8PM (high tide at 8:20 or so.) Worst case for piling up water into New York Harbor.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3012 Postby IntheEye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:13 pm

Frank2 wrote:
Please don't downplay the imminent danger facing New York.


Of course not, because as the NHC and others have said for days, once the system becomes extra-tropical the wind field will expand, but at least as far as the lowest SLP that will be wherever it makes landfall in the next few hours...

Frank


Well the windfield is already huge, that quote I posted about hurricane force winds extending 175 MILES OUTWARDS was from the 2PM advisory while Sandy is still a hurricane...that swath of strong winds will only increase. But whether or not it becomes extra-tropical before landfall is irrelevant as hurricane force winds will extend to NYC. Bryan Norcross on TWC just showed a graphic illustrating the water level at Battery Park already at 6.7 feet, almost 2 feet higher than its peak during Irene. Remember, that the most destructive aspect of any hurricane is storm surge and a southern landfall with respect to NYC makes things only worse...as OzonePete alluded to:
an earlier arrival could actually be just as bad or a little worse. If the winds stay up very strong for a few hours after landfall (which is highly likely due to it's becoming hybrid), as the center comes ashore near Atlantic City the winds will turn to southeast here and that will push the water directly onto the local beaches and up into NY Harbor. So water could be piling up extraordinarily high as high tide comes in between 8 and 9PM tonight.


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#3013 Postby jaxfladude » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:13 pm

Prayers bump :flag:
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3014 Postby IntheEye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:14 pm

On TWC wind gust of 86 mph reported in Westerly, Rhode Island!
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3015 Postby GoneBabyGone » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:14 pm

Image

Water slowly rising. High tide is going to put all visible land (closest to the camera) under water, I wager. Anyone think otherwise?

The clock looks to be holding strong through the wind...skeptical about the construction equipment.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3016 Postby MBryant » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:15 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Just to clarify some points:
Low tide was at 2PM, tides are rising now and peak at 8PM.
Eye will come ashore around 6PM, not 4:30PM.



Probably not good news, eh?


Why is everybody focusing on the landfall? The greatest surge not in the core is when the wind is greatest and the direction is perpendicular to the coastline. This should happen as the storm is WSW of NYC, not at landfall. This may actually be worse than landfall at high tide.

But I'm an amateur.
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#3017 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:16 pm

I really hope Atlantic City and New York are ready for this storm. Seems to be getting worse by the minute. Prayers to them.
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#3018 Postby JtSmarts » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:23 pm

I'm following twc's twitter feed and it seems that Boston too is getting some consistent strong winds.

NWS: "Couple of windows" blown out of a building in Boston's Back Bay district #sandy


3 consec. hours of SUSTAINED tropical-storm force (40+ mph) winds in #Boston, with a peak gust of 62mph just reported
Last edited by JtSmarts on Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3019 Postby midnight8 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:25 pm

MBryant wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Just to clarify some points:
Low tide was at 2PM, tides are rising now and peak at 8PM.
Eye will come ashore around 6PM, not 4:30PM.



Probably not good news, eh?


Why is everybody focusing on the landfall? The greatest surge not in the core is when the wind is greatest and the direction is perpendicular to the coastline. This should happen as the storm is WSW of NYC, not at landfall. This may actually be worse than landfall at high tide.

But I'm an amateur.


During Ike, the surge increased here for several hours after landfall and was still an issue the next day. Especially with water trapped in the rivers and bayous.
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#3020 Postby Weatherguy173 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:28 pm

is the boardwalk under water in Atlantic City?
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