ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

[bamajammer4eva]

HRRR Model shows it moving in a NW then westerly direction and hurricane force winds show up.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviati ... =t6&wjet=1

[cycloneye]

Decouple going on?

[ROCK]

well shes not on shore yet....and the west run might still happen...I think she is finally feeling the ridge....

I sure wish it came to TX, but I think at this point it's a done deal. New here, but from what I can tell, no models even going to TX now, huh? I dont think NHC will stray from the GFS/EURO to go with HWRF....JMO! Love your hopeful posts ROCK!

I am not being hopeful... to be honest, I dont care where it goes as long as the GFS doesnt verify I am good. Me and the GFS have never got along so its personal.

actually Debby is screwing with my 26 isotherm potential in the GOM. We need to save that for the bigs ones later. Debby go ahead and jump NE andget out of the way...

[ROCK]

maybe so Luis....hard to tell what it is doing now....I know its not moving much....

[brunota2003]

We were talking about that earlier, cycloneye...if the MLC shot to the NE and the LLC stayed in place/gets pushed possibly to the NW/W. Perhaps that is why they were talking about a stall for 24 hours or so, followed by redevelopment of convection?

[Aric Dunn]

Decouple going on?

[img]http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif[/ig]

This decoupling is what the GFS has been seeing. the NWS office talked out the energy/ vorticity from this sharping the trough before the shear subsides...and thats what eventually helps pick it up.

[tolakram]

Is there anyway to tell what models are being used for the TVCN, which by definition is:

Average of at least 2 of GFDI, UKMI, NGPI, GFSI, EMXI and GFNI

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

[CrazyC83]

Is this correct - the dry slot is where the strongest winds are?

[jeff]

I don't understand why anyone would rely on a computer model more heavily than real time synoptic data. If you every 6 hours see the conditions doing one thing and u see that an ull is present and changing the game, why would someone just go with the euro because its more reliable? Im a major amateur and I just kept watching visible sat and it clearly showed the ull's influence pushing Debby eastward. Last night when I heard stacy's explanation for the gfs solution, I bought it hook line and sinker cause I knew he knew tons more than me and I have nothing but respect for his and nhc's wisdom. I wake up this a.m. And find that ull still keeping debby eastward. So my ? Is: wouldn't it be better to use models in conjunction with real time synoptic data rather than the other way around? Since they tweaked the gfs, maybe that is now the more reliable model. That should have gotten more creedence than it got. I don't think this would hv been so hard to forecast if all they had was visble satellite. While I respect the need for models I do think they can get in the way of the obvious d/t putting them above everything else.

Ps: I'm not bashing nhc they do do an awesome job I'm just wondering if they relied more heavily on conditions vs. Models instead of vice versa thats all.

I think you've made some good points, robbielyn. I mentioned earlier that it would have been wise just to stall the system south of La in the first advisory and admit the uncertainty. Sometimes, I think the 5-day track forces some decisions that might not have been made. More than anything, I think the NHC needs to make sure they have consensus from both the euro and GFS in the future before committing to a determined track.

So what do you do if they do not agree...issue no forecast?

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
357 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 346 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VENUS...OR 9 MILES WEST OF PALMDALE...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VENUS.
ARCHBOLD.
LAKE PLACID.
LAKE ISTOKPOGA.
SEBRING REGIONAL AIRPORT.
AVON PARK AIR FORCE RANGE.

[crimi481]

I count at least 3 small Low's dancing around the center
We have seen this type storm in past -and it needs couple days over warm water in order to fuel each low -so they can join as one engine. Could be powerful blow. Will she stay- or exit stage right?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[bamajammer4eva]

Might be a good day to stay out of the water-Orange Beach, AL



Old Bridge knocked out-St George Island

[Kingarabian]

The NHC discussion (Stewart) on why they went with the western solution was right on and with merit. To say otherwise is insulting since they were going off guidance at that time like all of us were doing. You had the majority of the globals pointing that way so really a no brainer to ditch the GFS at that time.

This was confirmed by just about every weather media I was able to access as well so lets not get carried away with "MIGHTY GFS" banter.


Personally, I think the GFS (Maybe) got it right for all the wrong reasons. It wasnt the center relos or the sheared mess that it was seeing, it was the trof that was dragging it out to the NE or it was giving birth to Ernesto that weakened the ridging.....so before you all GFS huggers get all worked up into a frenzy about how wonderful the GFS is the EURO still is at that top in verification the last what oh say 8 years now. That is a fact.

True true. But I thought they shoulda counted the GFS solution in their track. A blend...

[wkwally]

from what I am seeing from the models they are closing in together. I think that now there is more info we are getting a much more clear idea of where Debbie is going. AS I said early this morning just needed a little more time and it was too early in the game to tell.

[ronjon]

Is there anyway to tell what models are being used for the TVCN, which by definition is:

Average of at least 2 of GFDI, UKMI, NGPI, GFSI, EMXI and GFNI

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

I'm not sure, But the TVCA, TCOA, TVCC, TVCE, and TVCN all show about the same track forecast into the FL Big Bend, Here's my source:

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2012&storm=04&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

[janswizard]

Same thing happening on Florida's west coast - i don't know why people put rescue and first responder's lives on the lines because of their stupidity....

[FutureEM]

Might be a good day to stay out of the water-Orange Beach, AL
https://p.twimg.com/AwLUGIECIAIUECR.jpg

Old Bridge knocked out-St George Island

http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc ... 7579_n.jpg

Is that some kind of water rescue in the first image?

[ronjon]

I don't understand why anyone would rely on a computer model more heavily than real time synoptic data. If you every 6 hours see the conditions doing one thing and u see that an ull is present and changing the game, why would someone just go with the euro because its more reliable? Im a major amateur and I just kept watching visible sat and it clearly showed the ull's influence pushing Debby eastward. Last night when I heard stacy's explanation for the gfs solution, I bought it hook line and sinker cause I knew he knew tons more than me and I have nothing but respect for his and nhc's wisdom. I wake up this a.m. And find that ull still keeping debby eastward. So my ? Is: wouldn't it be better to use models in conjunction with real time synoptic data rather than the other way around? Since they tweaked the gfs, maybe that is now the more reliable model. That should have gotten more creedence than it got. I don't think this would hv been so hard to forecast if all they had was visble satellite. While I respect the need for models I do think they can get in the way of the obvious d/t putting them above everything else.

Ps: I'm not bashing nhc they do do an awesome job I'm just wondering if they relied more heavily on conditions vs. Models instead of vice versa thats all.

I think you've made some good points, robbielyn. I mentioned earlier that it would have been wise just to stall the system south of La in the first advisory and admit the uncertainty. Sometimes, I think the 5-day track forces some decisions that might not have been made. More than anything, I think the NHC needs to make sure they have consensus from both the euro and GFS in the future before committing to a determined track.

So what do you do if they do not agree...issue no forecast?

Just what I said - split the difference and show little movement until the models come into agreement - which they do with time.

[Aric Dunn]

its either come to a dead stop or just drifting still to ne. remember not to focus on the center with this right now its is constantly spinning up vort that rotate around giving the appearance of motion one way or the other. rather just take a step back a look and the over all circ. if it stalls for as long as the models are saying it will eventually up well and wont be able to strengthen much the gulf loop is not to far south of where its at and often throw warm eddy's northward. just have to wait.