ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
mutley
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 311
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:18 am
Location: Gainesville, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3141 Postby mutley » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:55 am

This will definitely keep things interesting for awhile now.
0 likes   
The preceding comments are never to be used as information to establish circumstances, plans or procedures for any weather related events. Only use official National Hurricane Center or National Weather Service information issued for your area.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#3142 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:55 am

this day 4 for the gfs being within 200 miles of northern gulf coast landfall and within 50 miles of where is leaves cuba. very impressive run to run consistency.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3143 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:55 am

GFS hr84Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3144 Postby ObsessedMiami » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:56 am

While the exact path of the GFS may seem unlikely, especially in its earliest forecast points, it will be interesting if it signals more of an eastward shift for the overall model runs
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re:

#3145 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:56 am

deltadog03 wrote:This run looks like a first strike over SW FL, then just offshore and a 2nd hit prolly near PCB to Big Bend....


almost identical run from 2 days ago.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7192
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re:

#3146 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:57 am

Aric Dunn wrote:this day 4 for the gfs being within 200 miles of northern gulf coast landfall and within 50 miles of where is leaves cuba. very impressive run to run consistency.


really good and my idea how great it is to be on the 5 day nhc track is a great place to be has the potential to be blown to bits if this trend continues..lets see what actually verifies
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#3147 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:57 am

hr 93

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Re:

#3148 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:58 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:This run looks like a first strike over SW FL, then just offshore and a 2nd hit prolly near PCB to Big Bend....


almost identical run from 2 days ago.



frame 78 and a couple others after and before show multiple runs just like this

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=09
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#3149 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 am

Just east of Appalachicola.

Not buying it and it seems pretty fast.
0 likes   
Top
bucman1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 394
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:59 am

#3150 Postby bucman1 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 am

It almost looks like the GFS and CMC have a similar solution at this time of Isaac being a West coast runner (possibly)!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9485
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3151 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:00 am

intersting run....though I think the short term motion is odd given what we are seeing with all the internal issues right now. JMO of course...EURO up later today should solve all our problems.... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#3152 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:00 am

in the end, ends up in almost the exact same spot as the 06z
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#3153 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:00 am

euro is in what.. 45 min?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#3154 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:02 am

If euro wants to strengthen the ridge or take it westward or more into central gulf.. yeah, just throwing my hands up in the air.. everything was perfect last night :P
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#3155 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:03 am

Landfall!! around PCB/TLH.....
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3156 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:03 am

ROCK wrote:intersting run....though I think the short term motion is odd given what we are seeing with all the internal issues right now. JMO of course...EURO up later today should solve all our problems.... :D


well here is the thing once that center takes hold completely there will likely be a wobble nw do to rotational forces. could easily do what the gfs does. later today and tomorrow.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
HurricaneBrain
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm

#3157 Postby HurricaneBrain » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:05 am

GFS through 108hr:
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#3158 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:06 am

at 114 hours shows stalling on landfall with high building back in. depending on speed this could still be a pensacola or Mobile landfall as the features to pull it north in that time frame dont seem "settled" just yet
0 likes   
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#3159 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:07 am

It basically extrapolates to a due NW motion from now until final landfall. I think the WNW movement only occurs with land interaction then it goes right back to NW movement.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#3160 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:08 am

dont understand why this shift S and W caused more east and north route.. doesn't make much sense to me
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests