ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Weatherboy1]

This run is definitely concerning and should be noted. Doesn't it have additiona NOAA sampling data in it? Or is that the middle of the night cycle? Hmm...

[meriland23]

it doesnt spend much time on land on that run, curious to see how euro takes that. Gfs not good with isobars and strength, think the lack of land interaction.. if the euro follows gfs footsteps in 30 min, will be very apparent since the euro is more detailed with strength.

[blp]

dont understand why this shift S and W caused more east and north route.. doesn't make much sense to me

I would think a few things could cause it.

1) The Ridge is much weaker on this run so even if it is further south initially it would still pick it up.

2) It seems to almost shoot the gap and have less land interaction on this run which would allow for a stronger system that would tend to be pulled more poleward.

But I am no expert.

[Jevo]

So I professed my love for the HWRF many times cause at the FLGHC 2 years ago Stacy Stewart told me that every year they're tweaking it to make it fully operational by 2015... So I stick by it like a sad fan rooting for a football team that never wins....

Well it looks like it scored a touchdown on the 0z run on the 23rd if this run of the GFS verifies... (which it probably won't)

This is the 0z run from 8/23 of the HWRF

[GTStorm]

still finishing with a distinct NE hook at about day#4. I wouldn't rule out a Charley-esq scenario just yet.

[meriland23]

I wonder what the chances are that the ridge will be stronger than has been assumed the past few days..

[Blown Away]

Landfall near Central Panhandle near Appalachicola/Panama City, Pensacola is @85 miles west.

[Blown Away]

I wonder what the chances are that the ridge will be stronger than has been assumed the past few days..

I think it may be the opposite, the disagreement is the strength of the trough coming in from the NW and it's ability to breakdown the ridge.

[Aric Dunn]

dont understand why this shift S and W caused more east and north route.. doesn't make much sense to me

it didnt like the nhc and many of us here have said the mean or average center has been used for the models and it was a good call becasue the center is now exactly where it should be per the 12z gfs initialization

[HurrMark]

Note that it reemerges off the SC coast about 30-36 hours after landfall...and then kind of just sits there...it will be interesting to see what it does at that point.

[meriland23]

I wonder what the chances are that the ridge will be stronger than has been assumed the past few days..

I think it may be the opposite, the disagreement is the strength of the trough coming in from the NW and it's ability to breakdown the ridge.

hmm so in the event this trough doesn't break it down successfully... ???

[pgoss11]

Note that it reemerges off the SC coast about 30-36 hours after landfall...and then kind of just sits there...it will be interesting to see what it does at that point.

does anyone have a link to the full run?

[Aric Dunn]

12z nogaps very similar to the 00z .

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[meriland23]

Note that it reemerges off the SC coast about 30-36 hours after landfall...and then kind of just sits there...it will be interesting to see what it does at that point.

does anyone have a link to the full run?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[pgoss11]

Note that it reemerges off the SC coast about 30-36 hours after landfall...and then kind of just sits there...it will be interesting to see what it does at that point.

does anyone have a link to the full run?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Thanks Meriland

[HurrMark]

Note that it reemerges off the SC coast about 30-36 hours after landfall...and then kind of just sits there...it will be interesting to see what it does at that point.

does anyone have a link to the full run?

There are many out there...this is the one I use:
[url]
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M[/url]

[tolakram]

Please Read

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[Jevo]

This run is definitely concerning and should be noted. Doesn't it have additiona NOAA sampling data in it? Or is that the middle of the night cycle? Hmm...

To answer your question there have been flights in and out of the storm most of the morning and the G-IV is going up every 6 hours now taking readings...and the models are now ingesting balloon data from NWS WFOs in FL, GA, AL, MS, and PR. There is now new synoptic data being fed into the models about every 12 hours.... usually the 0z and 12z runs to make the morning and evening advisories

[Dean4Storms]

dont understand why this shift S and W caused more east and north route.. doesn't make much sense to me

Because the GFS is digging a sharper trough into the SE, note the quick pick up to the ENE once Isaac reaches the AL/FL border.
Also why it has it moving faster.

The GFS is showing steeper height falls, not sold on it!

[Weatherboy1]

This run is definitely concerning and should be noted. Doesn't it have additiona NOAA sampling data in it? Or is that the middle of the night cycle? Hmm...

To answer your question there have been flights in and out of the storm most of the morning and the G-IV is going up every 6 hours now taking readings...and the models are now ingesting balloon data from NWS WFOs in FL, GA, AL, MS, and PR. There is now new synoptic data being fed into the models about every 12 hours.... usually the 0z and 12z runs to make the morning and evening advisories

That's what I was wondering about -- the G-IV data. I was wondering if it is being reflected in the 12z runs, including the GFS run we just got, or only once a day (meaning the 0z runs). If the latest data is reflected in this GFS run, then I think it should have more validity. It wouldn't take much of a shift to the east for SE FL to get really nasty weather vs. just some wind and rain. So I'm watching closely. The base of the trough/low in the Eastern Gulf stretches all the way down to about 23N, and that lingering frontal boundary/low around GA/SC seems to me to be enough to create a real weakness for Isaac to shoot into.