WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[senorpepr]

Not exactly sure what they're doing to get a T6.5. I found the white band MUCH narrower than Hume did... 16 n mi on the N side. Even black didn't meet the 30 n mi. I agree with the eye adjustment, however. My final T was T5.5. because of the narrow CDO on the north side.


892
TPPN10 PGTW 170907

A. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 19.1N

D. 127.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 35NM TO WHITE BAND + 0.5 FOR OW
EYE COLOR W/WHITE BAND SURROUNDING USING THE EYE PATTERN YIELDS
A DT OF 6.5. MET AGREES; PT IS A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0514Z 18.1N 127.3E MMHS
17/0703Z 18.6N 127.3E SSMI


HUME

[Infdidoll]

It's amusing on Okinawa when you mention the typhoon may be moving further away, the news is met with a collective groan. Okinawa might be the only place on earth where people are excited when typhoons roll through. Smart building engineering makes people fearless, I guess.

[dexterlabio]

eye's getting clear and well-defined again.

[Infdidoll]

TCOR 2 (Typhoon Condition of Readiness 2) declared for U.S. military bases on Okinawa as of 1835. Just for reference sake:

TCOR 4: Winds of 58 mph or greater are expected within 72 hours (U.S. military bases in Okinawa are always in TCOR 4)
TCOR 3: Winds of 58 mph or greater are expected within 48 hours
TCOR 2: Winds of 58 mph or greater are expected within 24 hours
TCOR 1 Caution: Winds of 58 mph or greater are expected within 12 hours
TCOR 1 Emergency: Declared when sustained destructive winds reach or exceed 58 mph.
TCOR 1 Recovery: Declared when destructive winds have passed, but dangerous weather may still exist.
Return to TCOR 4: Sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are expected within 72 hours

[senorpepr]

Okay... I feel a little bit better with my T5.5. KNES agrees, using light grey (white and black too thin) for the basis of the analysis.


221
TXPQ28 KNES 170929
TCSWNP

A. 05W (GUCHOL)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 19.1N

D. 127.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.0/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN TECHNIQUE USED. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF 5.5 AFTER A PLUS 0.5 ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER
THIS SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LIKELY ON THE LOW END. MET
AND PT ARE 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL





WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 19.1N 127.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 24.5N 128.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 190600UTC 30.3N 132.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 200600UTC 37.7N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think Pat is shy and don't want to share this here, but I will! LOL Any how its his afternoon video update.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCDzAtv9qCQ&feature=g-u-u[/youtube]

[Infdidoll]

Just released by the Camps Foster & Lester page on Facebook:

1. AS OF 17/1835L, WE ARE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION 2. AT 17/1500L, SUPER TYPHOON GUCHOL WAS LOCATED 18.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 127.3 DEGREES EAST, WHICH IS 470 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF OKINAWA. IT HAD WINDS GUSTING TO 160 KNOTS NEAR ITS CENTER AND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IS FORECASTING SUPER TYPHOON GUCHOL TO BE LOCATED 66 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF KADENA BY 18/2200L.
2. IF SUPER TYPHOON GUCHOL CONTINUES TO MOVE AS FORECAST, SUSTAINED DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM 18/1500L - 19/0300L. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON OKINAWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 75 KNOTS WITH 105 KNOT GUSTS FROM 18/2100L-19/0000L.

https://www.facebook.com/CampFoster/pos ... ment_reply

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks Infidoll, I wish I read that before I made my update, would have been useful. Regardless another video to share here.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e-fdALok7U[/youtube]

[Infdidoll]

Great updates guys! We're watching every wobble now. Guess I'd better get some sleep tonight and get ready in case tomorrow gets crazy.

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 19.6N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 25.4N 128.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 191200UTC 32.8N 133.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 201200UTC 40.1N 143.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[tolakram]

Saved image.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thats a really impressive storm right now hard to believe its still June?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Great video Rob and many thanks for the shout out!

[Infdidoll]

So looks like JMA just brought the track closer again. Guess I wasn't imagining the slight NW jog on satellite.

If I'm estimating right, they seem to put the storm passing about 80 miles (around 70 nm) from Kadena.

[dexterlabio]

^saw that NW jog, too. this is when the crucial times start...where wobble is big deal if it is to make direct hit or stay some distances away. one would be glued to the computer all night monitoring the storm's motion.

[Infdidoll]

Absolutely! It's almost midnight here and I just can't...stop...watching.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.4N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 32.9N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 38.3N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 40.7N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 127.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z
IS 54 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR
27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN APPROXIMATELY
15 NM WIDE EYE. A 171126Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE INNER
EYEWALL HAS DEGRADED TO A HOOK FEATURE AND THE LARGER, OUTER RING
OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS DATA VERIFIES THE
OCCURRENCE OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT (ERC) CYCLE AND FURTHER
IDENTIFIES IT TO BE IN THE FINAL STAGES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE APPARENT EYE IN EIR AND THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 130 KNOTS BASED
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS NOW
SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO VENT THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS YET TO TAP INTO
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET. STY 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED AFTER TAU 48 TO
REFLECT THE PERSISTENT TRENDS IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
B. DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS STY 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. THE NEXT FEATURE THAT WILL AID IN
THE CONTINUED BREAK-DOWN OF THE STR WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CHINA. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
STY 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND BELOW,
AND DRASTICALLY LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. EVEN THOUGH POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE VIA A CONNECTION WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLIES, THE DEGRADING OCEAN ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH THE
ERC, SHOULD OFFSET THOSE EFFECTS. BY TAU 36 FURTHER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FURTHER DECREASING
OCEAN TEMPERATURES. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHOULD COMMENCE
BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO THE WESTERLIES. BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND 72 STY 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OF
TOKYO, JAPAN. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN
THE MODEL FIELDS REVEALS THAT AS THE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CHINA
DEEPENS THE RIDGING AHEAD OF IT WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TO BECOME LESS ZONAL OVER JAPAN. THE NOGAPS,
GFDN, GFS, AND ECMWF REMAIN PERSISTENTLY GROUPED WEST OF MAINLAND
JAPAN DURING THIS TIME. THE JGSM HAS TRENDED MORE WESTWARD AND THE
WBAR REMAINS THE ONLY TRACKER EAST OF TOKYO. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST-NORTHWEST OF TOKYO VERSES EAST
OF TOKYO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE
TRACK LIES AT THE BASE OF THE KANTO PLAIN AND ELEVATED TOPOGRAPHY
TO THE WEST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 05W SHOULD BE FULLY ABSORBED
WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAVE COMPLETED ETT. STY 05W WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS AND SSTS (18-20 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AS IT COMPLETES ETT. DUE TO TRENDING OF MODEL TRACKERS
WEST OF JAPAN THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUBSEQUENTLY DEGRADES
TO LOW DURING THIS TIME.//
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Thank God for Dave Ornauer of Stars & Stripes who taught me a workaround for accessing the JTWC site today.

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 171516
TCSWNP

A. 05W (GUCHOL)

B. 17/1432Z

C. 20.2N

D. 126.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS A DT OF
5.5. MET = 6.0. PT = 6.0. ALTHOUGH A CLEAR-CUT EYE PATTERN IS PRESENT,
CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE, CIMSS ADT, AND NESDIS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL
SUGGEST 05W IS NEAR A 6.0 INTENSITY. FOR THIS REASON, FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

[RobWESTPACWX]

Guchol is now getting to the point where it will be enhancing the SW monsoon over the PI. The risk of heavy rains, flooding and landslides are going to be increasing overnight tonight now.