WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[ozonepete]

is Bopha undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle? her eye seems to be choked...

The eye looks great in that image. It already underwent an ERC hours ago and is now strengthening again.

[ozonepete]

The left side image is from 2230 today and the right from 9 hours later. Look at the expansion in the core size and especially the overall circulation envelope in the last 9 hours. (These images cover the same geographic area.) If the core of Bopha can regain the same symmetry (pure round shape) that it had in the left side image while maintaining its new larger size, this will make super typhoon status easily in the next 24 hours or so.

[ozonepete]

This storm is on hyper-drive. It's already formed a new ring of very deep convection around the center (black circle around the eye). Very interesating Tropical cyclone, especially because of it's strength so close to the equator.

[stormstrike]

The left side image is from 2230 today and the right from 9 hours later. Look at the expansion in the core size and especially the overall circulation envelope in the last 9 hours. (These images cover the same geographic area.) If the core of Bopha can regain the same symmetry (pure round shape) that it had in the left side image while maintaining its new larger size, this will make super typhoon status easily in the next 24 hours or so.

yet, the left side looks healthier and more impressive... i wonder if Bopha would recover its elegance because ryt now it does look squashed..

[ozonepete]

Ha, you will see. Growing pains.

[dexterlabio]

the left picture is sure impressive but the right one has potential with those large areas of deeper convection. it looks like the ring of deep convection is wrapping into the choked eye and once it's done, it's an all-new monster again. to explain the weakening trend that happened, I agree with ozonepete about DMIN, and the other reason could be the brief round of eyewall replacement that's happening now.

[mrbagyo]

just attended my Saturday class in Manila, and now, holly cow. what is that, that caught me by surprise..latest models are showing a passage in visayas, then moving up in west coast of Luzon , jeez... that is really scary

I hope it wont follow the track of tropical storm Dot of 1979

i wonder who's the last TC to become super at such low latitude. at this rate, i now think she has a good chance to be a Cat5 soon.

Look at my avatar, that's super typhoon mike of 1990 peaked at 285 kph 885 hpa according to JTWC, but that is higher in latitude compared to BOPHA, lets see what will happen when its done with Palau

from FEMA:
"Palau Typhoon Mike (DR-882)
Incident period: Saturday, November 10, 1990 to Sunday, November 11, 1990
Major Disaster Declaration declared on November 28, 1990"

[wxmann_91]

Microwave data indicates there might be some shear affecting Bopha, which may be delaying completion of the ERC that started earlier today.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_07.gif

That aside, a good comparison to this storm is STY Kate of 1970, which also became Cat 4 south of 5N latitude:

[Meow]

OMG to Bopha’s convection.

[dexterlabio]

A picture of the whole Philippine Area of Responsibility with TY Bopha on the lower right corner...also shows the EWRC almost done with that thick area of cold cloud tops/deep convection wrapped on the tiny eye.



well things that could be hindering Bopha's development also includes dry air entrainment, lucky for this storm it is only average-sized and not large enough to suck large amounts of dry air.

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 05.4N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 06.5N 135.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031200UTC 07.7N 130.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 041200UTC 09.5N 124.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[stormstrike]

JMA shifts to lower latitude...




almost the same with the GFS model..

[NDG]

I just noticed the extremely low latitude of this typhoon, very interesting.

[Meow]

The great joke from ADT.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 5.4N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.4N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 6.1N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.7N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.4N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 8.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 10.0N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.3N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6N 139.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

The great joke from ADT.

LOL. a proof that ADT is sometimes unreliable.

[supercane4867]

Wow Bopha does looks much better than she was last night(this morning), soem very deep convection blow up, she's now trying to clear out the eye

[supercane4867]

The great joke from ADT.

LOL. a proof that ADT is sometimes unreliable.

Again, LOL at the ADT

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 DEC 2012 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 5:22:40 N Lon : 139:51:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 946.6mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.1 4.8

Center Temp : -73.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[supercane4867]

ADT has finally found where the actual center is located

[Hurricane_Luis]

Typhoon Bopha