ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[PTrackerLA]

The GFDL needs some serious upgrades. I remember last year it was one of the last models taking Irene to Florida and the list can go on and on for years. I wonder why the NHC still even mentions it.

[crimi481]

Crazy as may sound... ULL near Yucatan may shread ernie and transfer the energy north - feeding the wave -which is crawling W. over florida.? We have seen lots of this in our zone of tropics-over last few years.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Disclaimer: I am not a pro - see pro for real weather

[Sanibel]

It might be re-firing a center burst right now.

[Weatherfreak000]

Sadly it appears El Nino-like effects can be seen in the ATL. Might not be a great year for strong storms and it appears our streak of no Cat 5's just might continue. I think if anything, the models were picking up on this and that was something that could not be measured by our human eyes, it just is.


I'm no pro, I am just an amateur. I always figured this storm would potentially show me how this season may go and it appears it may be a season of struggling weak storms, leading into the inevitable El Nino. Good thing for the NGOM. In a pure neutral season Ernesto could have been a disaster.

[Hammy]

bringing out my final advisory call: if not at 5 tonight then certainly by 11 unless something drastically changes before then

decent swirl there but i guess its just moving too fast to be able to close off at the surface

personal opinion and not official forecast

[crimi481]

Sadly it appears El Nino-like effects can be seen in the ATL. Might not be a great year for strong storms and it appears our streak of no Cat 5's just might continue. I think if anything, the models were picking up on this and that was something that could not be measured by our human eyes, it just is.


I'm no pro, I am just an amateur. I always figured this storm would potentially show me how this season may go and it appears it may be a season of struggling weak storms, leading into the inevitable El Nino. Good thing for the NGOM. In a pure neutral season Ernesto could have been a disaster.

Yes sir -well said. Same to be said for approx 80% of storms that were in the gulf & W. Carib regions over Past 2 years. (right after the Gulf Oil incident)
Little off topic..
In each instance, NHC /Models al agreed each storm would strenthen -and that all conditions were favorable for a cane forming -and into gulf
Then 12-24 hours later - Storms seemed to Disperse in front of out eyes.

[jinftl]

Is el nino-induced shear different than shear? Models may not be programmed to pick up the impact stealth el nino shear!!!

Maybe it's just that every storm isn't going to be Katrina? Put it this way - next storm up is Gordon. The Gordon that hit effected Florida in 1991 formed in November. We just set a record for the 3rd earliest date (after 2005 and 1936) for reaching the 6th named storm. Maybe we have that el nino that produces record # of storms and then shears them to our dismay!

Sadly it appears El Nino-like effects can be seen in the ATL. Might not be a great year for strong storms and it appears our streak of no Cat 5's just might continue. I think if anything, the models were picking up on this and that was something that could not be measured by our human eyes, it just is.


I'm no pro, I am just an amateur. I always figured this storm would potentially show me how this season may go and it appears it may be a season of struggling weak storms, leading into the inevitable El Nino. Good thing for the NGOM. In a pure neutral season Ernesto could have been a disaster.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ernesto does look very sick today, as the GFS and Euro have been suggesting all along. But remember that these models also show Ernesto as a stronger storm in the Bay of Campeche than in the Caribbean. Ernesto likely won't be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan, but I think it will survive into the Bay and then could ramp up quite a bit when it gets there. Many storms have done so over the years, even one in an El Nino year, as you will see in my next weekly prediction in the Talkin' Tropics forum. My rough draft is written and is subject to updates depending on what happens today, but the prediction will be posted around 11 PM EDT tonight.

I will also try to remember to hotlink that prediction to this thread - something new I'm going to try this year that I hadn't thought of before.

-Andrew92

[Sanibel]

In case you haven't noticed it's re-firing deep convection.

[Steve H.]

Ernesto is beginning to re-fire. I think he is still a player in the GOM. Ernie is gonna lose the glasses over the next 48 hours

[dixiebreeze]

The fat lady isn't even humming, so we might want to hold off a bit on an Ernesto Obit.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Satellite
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[wxwatcher1999]

is he starting to get a blowup of convection right now?

[tolakram]

latest loop

[Zeno8]

is he starting to get a blowup of convection right now?

yes

[tolakram]

Latest

[wxwatcher1999]

anybody think it has time to regain strength before making landfall

[Macrocane]

Ernesto doesn't wanna go, just when it seemed over the convection rebuild over the center, of course it has to persist for re-intensification to occur, but the latest blob will help him to survive.

[Hurricane Andrew]

When does recon take off? 2015z is for tomorrow.

[Zeno8]

Queen has a message they would like to share with everyone:

STAYIN ALIVE!