ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060149
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 30 20120806
014100 1524N 07951W 8425 01589 0111 +170 +150 052033 034 030 002 00
014130 1526N 07952W 8427 01585 0111 +173 +147 052032 033 029 002 00
014200 1527N 07954W 8425 01589 0112 +173 +145 054030 032 030 001 00
014230 1528N 07955W 8429 01585 0110 +179 +144 053028 029 029 002 00
014300 1529N 07956W 8429 01587 0110 +178 +144 051028 030 029 001 00
014330 1530N 07957W 8429 01587 0118 +167 +145 051031 031 028 001 00
014400 1531N 07958W 8424 01589 0113 +168 +145 048032 033 028 001 00
014430 1533N 07959W 8433 01583 0113 +171 +144 049032 033 028 001 00
014500 1534N 08001W 8425 01589 0115 +170 +145 049031 033 026 002 00
014530 1535N 08002W 8430 01587 0114 +176 +145 049031 031 025 001 00
014600 1536N 08003W 8431 01584 0116 +172 +146 049030 031 024 000 00
014630 1537N 08004W 8432 01587 0119 +170 +146 048030 030 024 001 00
014700 1538N 08005W 8424 01594 0118 +169 +147 047029 030 026 000 00
014730 1539N 08006W 8432 01587 0119 +170 +146 046029 029 025 002 00
014800 1540N 08007W 8428 01592 0121 +166 +146 047028 029 025 002 00
014830 1541N 08009W 8426 01593 0122 +166 +146 047027 028 024 001 00
014900 1543N 08010W 8434 01584 0121 +165 +146 045027 028 024 001 00
014930 1544N 08011W 8427 01592 0123 +165 +146 047028 029 024 002 00
015000 1545N 08012W 8435 01583 0122 +166 +145 047028 029 024 002 00
015030 1546N 08013W 8428 01592 0125 +164 +144 050028 029 021 002 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There's no reason to be dismissing this storm so fast. Recon reports that the center of circulation is much better defined than last night (well-defined windshifts), and that it is slowing. With a weakness over the northern Gulf Coast, Ernesto should begin to strengthen and gain some latitude; it'll probably miss the northern coast of Honduras. After that, a continued west-northwest is likely, and Ernesto should make landfall as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Weakening is likely over the Yucatan, with re-intensification into a stronger Category 1 hurricane (if it becomes one before its first landfall) before landfall somewhere near Tampico, or just south of.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060200
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 31 20120806
015100 1547N 08014W 8431 01592 0125 +166 +144 048026 029 024 000 00
015130 1548N 08015W 8430 01593 0125 +167 +144 046026 027 024 002 00
015200 1549N 08016W 8428 01595 0126 +166 +143 049027 027 024 002 00
015230 1550N 08018W 8428 01594 0127 +165 +144 051025 026 022 002 00
015300 1551N 08019W 8432 01592 0130 +165 +144 048025 026 023 002 00
015330 1553N 08020W 8433 01592 0130 +165 +144 046024 025 023 000 00
015400 1554N 08021W 8424 01601 0130 +165 +144 048024 024 024 001 00
015430 1555N 08022W 8429 01595 0130 +165 +144 048024 025 024 002 00
015500 1556N 08023W 8436 01592 0134 +159 +144 052027 028 026 007 00
015530 1557N 08025W 8429 01598 0139 +153 +142 052027 030 027 008 00
015600 1558N 08026W 8427 01599 0129 +167 +140 050024 026 024 004 00
015630 1559N 08027W 8433 01593 0127 +171 +139 050023 024 019 002 00
015700 1600N 08028W 8431 01596 0129 +168 +141 048024 024 021 001 03
015730 1600N 08030W 8430 01596 0128 +169 +143 046023 024 /// /// 03
015800 1558N 08030W 8427 01598 0129 +165 +146 045023 024 022 001 00
015830 1556N 08030W 8432 01595 0130 +169 +146 039023 023 019 002 00
015900 1554N 08030W 8428 01599 0130 +166 +145 039023 024 024 001 00
015930 1553N 08030W 8430 01596 0131 +165 +144 042021 022 024 001 00
020000 1551N 08031W 8428 01599 0131 +165 +143 037020 022 024 001 00
020030 1549N 08031W 8428 01598 0131 +166 +142 040021 022 023 002 00
$$
;

[Ntxw]

There's no reason to be dismissing this storm so fast. Recon reports that the center of circulation is much better defined than last night (well-defined windshifts), and that it is slowing. With a weakness over the northern Gulf Coast, Ernesto should begin to strengthen and gain some latitude; it'll probably miss the northern coast of Honduras. After that, a continued west-northwest is likely, and Ernesto should make landfall as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Weakening is likely over the Yucatan, with re-intensification into a stronger Category 1 hurricane (if it becomes one before its first landfall) before landfall somewhere near Tampico, or just south of.

I'm going to respectfully disagree about landfall. It's looking more likely he will make a landfall in central america somewhere in Honduras or Nicaragua tomorrow. The winds found are not a defined single vortex but perhaps multiples. It's a mess right now. Northern convection might organize near the Yucatan but that won't be enough of time. This scenario is supported by the models. After that is a bit more questionable depending on what the Yucatan does to it.

[wxman57]

what is that that just popped up on last water vapor loop?

You'll need to be a bit more specific.

[jonj2040]

[ozonepete]

There's no reason to be dismissing this storm so fast. Recon reports that the center of circulation is much better defined than last night (well-defined windshifts), and that it is slowing. With a weakness over the northern Gulf Coast, Ernesto should begin to strengthen and gain some latitude; it'll probably miss the northern coast of Honduras. After that, a continued west-northwest is likely, and Ernesto should make landfall as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Weakening is likely over the Yucatan, with re-intensification into a stronger Category 1 hurricane (if it becomes one before its first landfall) before landfall somewhere near Tampico, or just south of.

I'm going to respectfully disagree about landfall. It's looking more likely he will make a landfall in central america somewhere in Honduras or Nicaragua tomorrow. The winds found are not a defined single vortex but perhaps multiples. It's a mess right now. Northern convection might organize near the Yucatan but that won't be enough of time. This scenario is supported by the models. After that is a bit more questionable depending on what the Yucatan does to it.

I'm going with TropA13 on this one. The motion on satellite agrees with the NHC forecast track, i.e. it will miss to the north of Honduras. And it is very obvious on satellite that it is reorganizing again. Far from a mess compared to this afternoon.

[wxman57]

So far, it looks like about 15-20 kts SW and SE quads and 25-30 kts NW. 42kt SFMR winds NE look bogus as they're a good bit higher than the FL winds. Probably 30-35 kts NE quad in a VERY small area.

[artist]

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 060203
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/01:27:40Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
079 deg 19 min W
C. 850 mb 1486 m
D. 20 kt
E. 139 deg 28 nm
F. 197 deg 14 kt
G. 140 deg 23 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 18 C / 1527 m
J. 21 C / 1526 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 01:31:30Z

[jonj2040]

[cycloneye]

And an important thing that is going on is the slowdown.

[artist]

P. AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 01:31:30Z

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060209
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 32 20120806
020100 1547N 08030W 8429 01599 0131 +165 +141 033022 022 024 001 00
020130 1545N 08030W 8428 01599 0133 +164 +140 040023 024 022 002 00
020200 1544N 08030W 8428 01600 0131 +166 +139 041022 023 023 001 00
020230 1542N 08030W 8429 01599 0130 +169 +138 041023 023 019 003 00
020300 1540N 08030W 8428 01598 0129 +167 +137 032024 024 021 002 00
020330 1538N 08030W 8429 01595 0130 +165 +138 038022 024 025 002 00
020400 1536N 08030W 8426 01599 0127 +166 +138 035024 025 025 002 00
020430 1535N 08030W 8427 01596 0127 +165 +138 035024 026 025 002 00
020500 1533N 08030W 8429 01593 0126 +168 +138 033024 026 025 002 00
020530 1531N 08030W 8428 01594 0124 +169 +138 034024 025 025 002 00
020600 1529N 08030W 8428 01595 0126 +169 +138 035024 025 022 002 00
020630 1527N 08030W 8428 01595 0123 +172 +139 035024 024 022 002 00
020700 1525N 08030W 8426 01596 0122 +171 +139 033024 025 024 001 00
020730 1524N 08030W 8429 01593 0122 +170 +140 033025 025 024 001 00
020800 1522N 08030W 8426 01593 0121 +169 +141 035024 024 024 001 00
020830 1520N 08030W 8428 01589 0120 +168 +142 036024 025 024 002 00
020900 1518N 08030W 8426 01590 0118 +170 +142 031024 025 024 001 00
020930 1516N 08030W 8430 01587 0116 +170 +142 031025 025 025 000 00
021000 1514N 08030W 8426 01590 0116 +172 +142 035025 025 026 001 00
021030 1513N 08030W 8428 01589 0116 +171 +143 031024 024 026 001 00
$$
;

[ozonepete]

Yes, Luis. Very important because that decreases effective shear significantly.

[littlevince]

Well, to be fair our emergency management has improved in the last few years but we've had extreme rainfall events never seen before and even a weak depression like TD 12E produced 1500 mm (or 59 inches) of rain last year in El Salvador, that's another reason why we're tracking Ernesto, because it's going to move very close of Honduras and make landfall in Belize and we never really know how much rainfall this systems are going to produce.

Yes, you're right, my message was very generalized, and generalizing it's always a stupid think, probably very unfair.
I myself have seen in recent years much has changed, for example, there are hundreds of weather nerds on facebook and twitter today from countries like venezuela, honduras, el salvador, mexico, etc, a lot of people who discuss weather everyday. That's very good.
As far as I know I remember your maps of accumulated precipitation in your country last year, and they look very professional, a sign of a country trying to deal with data and transparency.
I hope you have not misunderstood me, I actually think that many of these countries deal better with disasters than most European countries for example, who don't know how to deal with them because they are rare.

About rain in the mountains, fully agree, a slow moving depression with a lot of moisture can be a killer monster many times worse than a category 5 hurricane. But if the risk can be much higher, it requires an even greater effort in warning systems and prevention.

[Sanibel]

OK, we're back in business.

[jonj2040]

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060219
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 33 20120806
021100 1511N 08030W 8428 01589 0118 +170 +143 030024 024 027 001 00
021130 1509N 08030W 8428 01590 0118 +170 +144 028022 023 026 002 00
021200 1507N 08030W 8428 01589 0117 +170 +144 028022 022 027 000 00
021230 1505N 08030W 8428 01589 0117 +170 +144 030022 023 027 000 00
021300 1503N 08030W 8428 01588 0114 +170 +144 033023 023 025 001 00
021330 1502N 08030W 8428 01588 0114 +170 +144 033023 023 024 002 03
021400 1500N 08029W 8421 01594 0113 +170 +145 033022 022 /// /// 03
021430 1500N 08028W 8430 01587 0115 +174 +146 034021 021 025 002 00
021500 1459N 08026W 8428 01589 0112 +175 +146 032020 021 025 002 00
021530 1459N 08025W 8430 01587 0112 +175 +146 032021 022 024 001 00
021600 1459N 08023W 8424 01590 0110 +175 +147 032021 022 024 001 00
021630 1458N 08021W 8427 01587 0110 +176 +147 032021 022 024 001 00
021700 1458N 08020W 8428 01587 0109 +178 +148 030020 021 023 001 00
021730 1458N 08018W 8430 01582 0105 +182 +148 026020 021 024 001 00
021800 1458N 08016W 8430 01583 0105 +180 +148 026020 020 023 001 00
021830 1457N 08015W 8428 01583 0105 +179 +149 027021 022 024 003 00
021900 1457N 08013W 8429 01582 0105 +177 +150 024022 022 026 003 00
021930 1457N 08011W 8429 01583 0102 +184 +150 020022 023 024 002 00
022000 1456N 08010W 8426 01584 0096 +190 +149 021022 022 025 002 00
022030 1456N 08008W 8429 01582 0097 +190 +150 021023 023 027 002 00
$$

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060229
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120806
022100 1456N 08007W 8429 01581 0098 +187 +151 018024 024 029 001 00
022130 1456N 08005W 8426 01583 0098 +190 +152 023025 026 029 001 00
022200 1455N 08003W 8429 01582 0098 +190 +153 023024 025 027 002 00
022230 1455N 08002W 8426 01583 0100 +183 +154 020025 027 026 001 00
022300 1455N 08000W 8426 01583 0105 +174 +154 019026 027 025 003 00
022330 1454N 07958W 8433 01576 0100 +183 +153 017024 026 024 001 00
022400 1454N 07957W 8432 01578 0098 +186 +152 014023 023 027 001 00
022430 1454N 07955W 8425 01582 0092 +190 +152 013024 025 026 003 00
022500 1454N 07953W 8429 01578 0090 +193 +152 015026 026 025 001 00
022530 1453N 07952W 8429 01576 0087 +194 +153 013026 027 027 001 00
022600 1453N 07950W 8429 01574 0084 +195 +154 013027 028 027 002 00
022630 1453N 07948W 8428 01574 0085 +193 +155 014028 028 028 002 00
022700 1452N 07947W 8424 01578 0083 +195 +156 014027 028 028 002 00
022730 1452N 07945W 8433 01568 0081 +195 +157 012027 027 027 001 00
022800 1452N 07943W 8425 01576 0079 +200 +157 007027 028 026 001 00
022830 1452N 07942W 8429 01570 0075 +205 +158 005029 030 027 002 00
022900 1451N 07940W 8433 01565 0070 +206 +159 002031 032 026 002 00
022930 1451N 07938W 8429 01567 0067 +210 +161 002032 033 025 002 00
023000 1451N 07937W 8426 01570 0064 +214 +162 357031 033 024 002 00
023030 1450N 07935W 8427 01568 0063 +212 +164 357027 030 020 002 00
$$