ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060930
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 05 20120806
092200 1639N 06754W 4656 06432 0337 -100 -113 022009 010 005 000 00
092230 1639N 06756W 4656 06432 0337 -100 -113 024009 010 003 000 00
092300 1638N 06759W 4655 06433 0336 -100 -114 028007 008 002 001 00
092330 1637N 06801W 4656 06432 0336 -100 -114 033008 009 002 001 00
092400 1637N 06804W 4656 06430 0336 -100 -114 036008 009 005 000 00
092430 1637N 06806W 4655 06433 0336 -100 -115 035008 009 004 000 00
092500 1637N 06809W 4656 06432 0337 -100 -115 033007 008 004 000 00
092530 1637N 06811W 4656 06432 0336 -100 -116 033008 008 005 000 00
092600 1638N 06813W 4655 06433 0336 -100 -116 036008 008 004 000 00
092630 1638N 06816W 4652 06435 0334 -100 -116 033009 009 006 000 00
092700 1638N 06819W 4654 06432 0334 -100 -117 034008 009 005 000 00
092730 1638N 06821W 4658 06426 0333 -100 -118 036008 009 007 000 00
092800 1638N 06824W 4655 06429 0332 -100 -120 040008 008 006 000 00
092830 1638N 06827W 4656 06427 0333 -100 -121 041007 008 007 000 00
092900 1638N 06829W 4656 06429 0333 -101 -122 043007 007 010 000 00
092930 1638N 06832W 4588 06536 0336 -109 -124 044003 006 011 000 00
093000 1638N 06835W 4516 06660 0343 -118 -125 080001 002 009 000 00
093030 1638N 06837W 4459 06755 0348 -126 -126 174001 002 008 000 00
093100 1638N 06840W 4411 06837 0353 -120 -120 165002 003 007 000 01
093130 1638N 06842W 4340 06963 0359 -130 -130 163002 003 007 000 01
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

HDOB 5

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060940
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 06 20120806
093200 1638N 06845W 4283 07063 0366 -130 -130 005001 002 007 000 01
093230 1638N 06847W 4235 07146 0372 -130 -130 059000 001 005 000 01
093300 1638N 06849W 4159 07288 0382 -140 -140 135001 002 006 000 01
093330 1638N 06852W 4111 07376 0387 -150 -150 164003 003 006 001 01
093400 1638N 06854W 4051 07489 0393 -166 //// 208004 005 008 000 01
093430 1638N 06856W 3999 07588 0401 -172 //// 217005 006 009 001 01
093500 1638N 06858W 3955 07670 0406 -176 //// 224008 008 011 000 01
093530 1638N 06901W 3929 07721 0410 -180 //// 227008 008 008 000 01
093600 1638N 06903W 3922 07733 0410 -180 //// 225008 009 010 000 01
093630 1638N 06905W 3925 07728 0409 -180 //// 225009 009 007 001 01
093700 1638N 06908W 3926 07726 0409 -177 //// 229008 009 008 001 01
093730 1638N 06910W 3926 07724 0409 -160 -160 230007 008 009 000 01
093800 1638N 06913W 3925 07726 0409 -160 -160 233006 008 008 000 01
093830 1638N 06915W 3927 07721 0409 -160 -160 239006 006 006 000 01
093900 1638N 06918W 3926 07723 0408 -170 -171 237006 007 003 001 00
093930 1638N 06921W 3926 07723 0409 -170 -175 231007 007 004 000 00
094000 1638N 06923W 3926 07722 0408 -171 -178 226006 006 003 000 00
094030 1638N 06926W 3926 07722 0407 -175 -181 225006 006 003 000 00
094100 1638N 06928W 3926 07723 0408 -175 -182 221005 006 003 000 00
094130 1638N 06931W 3926 07722 0408 -175 -185 213004 005 002 000 00
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

HDOB 6

[tolakram]

For the images try using a simple free image program like http://www.irfanview.com/ and chop the size down.

alt+printscreen will copy only the active program, not the entire desktop

-ctrl+v to paste into irfanview
-Grab an area with the mouse
-ctrl+c to copy it
-D to delete the current image in irfanview
-ctrl+v to paste the previously copied area
-save
-upload

^^ all optional, just fyi

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060950
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 07 20120806
094200 1639N 06933W 3926 07724 0409 -175 -186 206006 006 002 000 00
094230 1639N 06936W 3927 07722 0408 -175 -188 209006 007 004 000 00
094300 1639N 06939W 3926 07723 0409 -173 -189 208007 007 006 000 00
094330 1639N 06941W 3926 07723 0408 -171 -191 209006 007 007 000 00
094400 1639N 06944W 3926 07723 0408 -174 -191 205005 006 007 000 00
094430 1639N 06946W 3926 07722 0407 -170 -192 203005 005 008 000 00
094500 1639N 06949W 3926 07722 0408 -170 -193 205004 005 009 000 00
094530 1639N 06951W 3926 07723 0408 -170 -193 208003 004 010 001 00
094600 1639N 06954W 3927 07722 0408 -170 -193 205002 003 010 000 00
094630 1639N 06957W 3925 07726 0409 -170 -193 201002 002 011 000 00
094700 1639N 06959W 3927 07722 0409 -170 -193 198002 002 010 001 00
094730 1639N 07002W 3927 07722 0409 -170 -193 203001 002 011 000 00
094800 1638N 07004W 3925 07726 0409 -170 -193 188002 002 011 000 00
094830 1638N 07007W 3926 07724 0410 -174 -194 161002 002 013 000 00
094900 1638N 07010W 3927 07723 0410 -174 -194 178002 003 014 000 00
094930 1638N 07012W 3926 07724 0411 -172 -194 192003 003 013 000 00
095000 1638N 07015W 3926 07727 0412 -170 -195 213003 004 014 000 00
095030 1638N 07017W 3925 07727 0411 -170 -195 213004 004 016 001 00
095100 1638N 07020W 3929 07723 0412 -166 -195 224004 004 017 000 00
095130 1638N 07022W 3926 07726 0411 -168 -196 221005 005 016 000 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Or crop with Paint and then upload with Imageshack toolbar.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061000
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 08 20120806
095200 1638N 07025W 3925 07745 0428 -170 -196 218005 005 017 000 00
095230 1637N 07028W 3927 07754 0440 -171 -196 216005 005 016 000 00
095300 1637N 07030W 3926 07765 0446 -174 -196 211004 004 017 000 00
095330 1637N 07033W 3927 07784 0466 -170 -197 236003 003 019 000 00
095400 1637N 07035W 3928 07791 0476 -171 -197 261003 003 019 000 00
095430 1637N 07038W 3928 07792 0479 -170 -197 269005 005 021 000 00
095500 1637N 07040W 3923 07801 0480 -170 -198 276004 005 020 000 00
095530 1637N 07043W 3927 07795 0481 -169 -198 268003 004 021 000 00
095600 1637N 07046W 3929 07792 0481 -165 -198 276003 003 021 000 00
095630 1637N 07048W 3926 07796 0480 -165 -198 272003 004 022 000 00
095700 1636N 07051W 3926 07795 0480 -168 -198 277003 004 021 000 00
095730 1636N 07053W 3927 07774 0465 -170 -197 276006 006 020 001 00
095800 1636N 07056W 3926 07775 0460 -170 -197 276006 006 020 000 00
095830 1636N 07058W 3925 07776 0452 -170 -197 288006 006 021 000 00
095900 1636N 07101W 3927 07756 0442 -170 -198 283006 006 022 000 00
095930 1636N 07104W 3926 07756 0442 -170 -198 286006 007 022 000 00
100000 1636N 07106W 3926 07757 0442 -171 -198 304007 007 022 000 00
100030 1636N 07109W 3927 07758 0444 -175 -199 302007 007 023 000 00
100100 1635N 07111W 3925 07761 0443 -175 -199 307006 007 024 000 00
100130 1635N 07114W 3927 07756 0444 -175 -200 305006 006 023 000 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[Nimbus]

IR imagery can be real deceiving, only the high cold cloud tops show up well. This is the longitude where these systems typically slow down and spin up so a slow down in forward speed might have occured.

Its hard to beleive a LLC exists further west out from under the convection. How would it survive the inflow from the persistent convection that blew up in the same stationary area east of it all night? The mid level vorticity is still intact although any surface pressure gradient must be pretty shallow from all the naked streaking he did running across the Caribbean.

If it does get its act together NHC might have to shift the track north of Belize and that would mean more time over water in the gulf.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061010
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 09 20120806
100200 1635N 07116W 3926 07761 0445 -179 -201 309006 007 024 001 00
100230 1635N 07119W 3927 07760 0446 -176 -227 305006 007 023 001 00
100300 1635N 07121W 3925 07763 0446 -174 -250 314005 006 024 000 00
100330 1635N 07124W 3927 07758 0444 -175 -254 301005 005 023 000 00
100400 1635N 07126W 3925 07761 0445 -174 -270 282004 005 023 000 00
100430 1635N 07129W 3927 07757 0444 -173 -278 269004 005 023 000 00
100500 1634N 07132W 3925 07762 0445 -175 -282 268005 005 024 000 00
100530 1634N 07134W 3926 07759 0445 -175 -282 267005 005 024 000 00
100600 1634N 07137W 3923 07764 0445 -177 -277 275005 005 024 000 00
100630 1634N 07139W 3929 07756 0445 -177 -258 280004 005 025 000 00
100700 1634N 07142W 3925 07763 0445 -180 -229 276004 004 026 000 00
100730 1634N 07144W 3926 07762 0445 -180 -208 250004 005 025 000 00
100800 1634N 07147W 3926 07759 0445 -180 -206 236005 006 025 000 00
100830 1634N 07149W 3927 07756 0444 -180 -208 224006 007 023 001 00
100900 1634N 07152W 3926 07758 0444 -180 -206 216006 007 021 000 00
100930 1634N 07155W 3926 07758 0444 -180 -203 214005 006 022 000 00
101000 1634N 07157W 3927 07758 0445 -180 -203 207004 005 023 000 00
101030 1634N 07200W 3926 07763 0446 -180 -202 203006 007 023 000 00
101100 1634N 07202W 3926 07763 0447 -178 -201 209006 006 023 000 00
101130 1633N 07205W 3927 07760 0447 -177 -199 210006 007 022 000 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060841
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061020
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 10 20120806
101200 1633N 07207W 3926 07763 0449 -176 -199 212006 007 023 000 00
101230 1633N 07210W 3927 07759 0447 -175 -199 200006 006 023 000 00
101300 1633N 07213W 3926 07763 0448 -178 -199 196007 008 023 000 00
101330 1633N 07215W 3926 07764 0448 -176 -198 205008 008 022 000 00
101400 1633N 07218W 3926 07763 0447 -177 -198 197006 008 022 000 00
101430 1633N 07220W 3926 07760 0447 -179 -197 189005 006 021 000 00
101500 1633N 07223W 3926 07763 0447 -176 -197 195006 008 021 000 00
101530 1633N 07225W 3926 07760 0445 -177 -199 201009 009 022 000 00
101600 1633N 07228W 3927 07755 0442 -173 -200 208010 010 021 000 00
101630 1633N 07231W 3926 07758 0442 -175 -199 215011 012 022 000 00
101700 1633N 07233W 3925 07758 0441 -173 -198 216011 012 023 000 00
101730 1633N 07236W 3926 07755 0441 -175 -198 212012 012 023 000 00
101800 1633N 07238W 3926 07755 0440 -175 -198 206011 011 021 000 00
101830 1633N 07241W 3926 07755 0440 -175 -198 206012 012 022 000 00
101900 1632N 07243W 3926 07755 0440 -175 -197 204012 012 022 000 00
101930 1632N 07246W 3926 07755 0441 -175 -197 203012 012 022 000 00
102000 1632N 07248W 3926 07754 0441 -176 -197 202012 012 020 000 00
102030 1632N 07251W 3925 07759 0442 -175 -197 208011 011 020 000 00
102100 1632N 07253W 3927 07754 0441 -175 -196 207010 011 021 000 00
102130 1632N 07256W 3926 07756 0441 -174 -195 212009 009 021 000 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061030
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 11 20120806
102200 1632N 07258W 3926 07754 0440 -173 -194 218007 008 021 000 00
102230 1632N 07301W 3926 07753 0439 -175 -194 224006 007 018 001 00
102300 1632N 07304W 3926 07755 0440 -173 -194 215006 006 016 001 00
102330 1632N 07306W 3925 07758 0440 -170 -194 202006 006 016 000 00
102400 1632N 07309W 3927 07750 0439 -175 -193 199005 007 018 000 00
102430 1632N 07311W 3930 07747 0439 -177 -192 212008 008 017 000 00
102500 1632N 07314W 3925 07756 0438 -177 -192 215008 008 017 000 00
102530 1631N 07316W 3926 07753 0438 -175 -192 216008 008 013 000 00
102600 1631N 07319W 3926 07753 0438 -175 -192 202007 008 012 000 00
102630 1631N 07322W 3926 07753 0438 -178 -192 180005 006 013 001 00
102700 1631N 07324W 3926 07752 0437 -180 -191 181005 005 014 001 00
102730 1631N 07327W 3927 07749 0437 -175 -191 187006 006 015 000 00
102800 1631N 07329W 3923 07756 0437 -175 -191 181005 006 012 000 00
102830 1631N 07332W 3927 07748 0436 -174 -191 159004 005 012 000 00
102900 1631N 07335W 3926 07753 0438 -175 -191 166004 005 010 000 00
102930 1631N 07337W 3926 07752 0438 -175 -190 159003 004 010 000 00
103000 1630N 07340W 3926 07753 0438 -175 -189 158003 004 009 000 00
103030 1630N 07342W 3926 07755 0440 -173 -189 162003 004 008 001 00
103100 1630N 07345W 3927 07753 0440 -171 -188 228003 004 007 000 00
103130 1630N 07347W 3927 07752 0440 -174 -188 221005 006 006 000 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL
ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO BE TILTED
NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...AND THIS STRUCTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS STILL SHOW ERNESTO APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 TO
48 HOURS...AND THAT IS POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT SHOWN
EXPLICITLY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF TH
DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT USING
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THEREFORE THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION
NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED FURTHER...WITH A LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF 275/10. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS SHOWN BY MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION BUT IS STILL A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 15.4N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.2N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.1N 86.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.7N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 18.7N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
96H 10/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST
120H 11/0600Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061040
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 12 20120806
103200 1630N 07350W 3927 07750 0438 -170 -187 247004 006 006 000 00
103230 1629N 07353W 3926 07752 0436 -170 -186 275003 003 010 000 00
103300 1629N 07355W 3925 07754 0437 -171 -185 277002 003 013 000 00
103330 1629N 07358W 3926 07755 0439 -169 -185 282003 004 012 000 00
103400 1629N 07400W 3926 07750 0436 -168 -186 259003 003 011 001 00
103430 1629N 07403W 3926 07752 0437 -165 -185 265003 003 015 000 00
103500 1628N 07405W 3926 07755 0439 -165 -185 318004 004 018 001 00
103530 1628N 07408W 3926 07754 0440 -166 -184 320002 004 018 001 00
103600 1628N 07411W 3927 07754 0441 -166 -182 283004 004 019 000 00
103630 1628N 07413W 3926 07756 0441 -165 -182 271003 004 020 000 00
103700 1628N 07416W 3925 07760 0442 -165 -184 180001 001 022 000 00
103730 1627N 07418W 3926 07761 0445 -165 -183 083001 001 023 000 00
103800 1627N 07421W 3927 07755 0442 -165 -182 164000 001 024 000 00
103830 1627N 07423W 3926 07754 0439 -165 -182 087001 001 024 001 00
103900 1627N 07426W 3926 07753 0439 -165 -182 077002 003 025 000 00
103930 1627N 07429W 3926 07758 0440 -165 -182 091002 003 025 000 00
104000 1626N 07431W 3926 07756 0441 -166 -181 084004 005 025 001 00
104030 1626N 07434W 3927 07754 0441 -166 -181 102004 006 026 000 00
104100 1626N 07436W 3927 07750 0437 -169 -181 156003 004 026 000 00
104130 1626N 07439W 3926 07752 0435 -166 -181 162002 003 027 000 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]