ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Weatherfreak000]

I hate to brag but I called that center reformation a page back.

[tolakram]

Looks like 999 is the lowest unflagged pressure.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Last page I said I was guessing sub-1000mb final unofficial Pressure this pass was 997.7mb!

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061210
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 21 20120806
120200 1532N 08006W 8426 01533 0023 +214 +151 007033 038 047 003 00
120230 1532N 08005W 8407 01542 0021 +203 +155 347028 031 040 004 00
120300 1531N 08003W 8442 01504 0002 +224 +157 334029 032 045 005 00
120330 1531N 08001W 8417 01527 9989 +241 +158 326030 033 034 006 00
120400 1530N 07959W 8439 01491 9989 +220 +162 342023 031 028 006 03
120430 1531N 07957W 8430 01495 9977 +230 +164 302011 015 016 008 03
120500 1532N 07956W 8415 01512 0001 +197 +165 187013 018 037 005 00
120530 1533N 07955W 8439 01489 0015 +177 +165 171044 055 047 007 03
120600 1535N 07954W 8423 01516 0027 +166 +164 157051 055 /// /// 03
120630 1536N 07956W 8433 01493 0010 +169 +163 137041 049 050 009 00
120700 1536N 07958W 8430 01487 0009 +150 +150 102035 038 055 010 01
120730 1536N 08000W 8434 01484 0006 +167 +155 077033 036 052 008 00
120800 1536N 08002W 8426 01496 0013 +158 +149 064038 042 055 010 00
120830 1536N 08004W 8429 01501 0012 +180 +143 044032 042 056 011 00
120900 1536N 08006W 8432 01504 0018 +179 +139 041035 039 053 006 00
120930 1536N 08008W 8422 01524 0029 +179 +139 038037 041 050 006 03
121000 1537N 08009W 8422 01530 0036 +180 +139 038035 038 /// /// 03
121030 1537N 08008W 8430 01518 0036 +177 +141 049033 034 049 005 00
121100 1537N 08007W 8435 01505 0024 +178 +142 056034 037 049 005 00
121130 1537N 08005W 8430 01502 0007 +190 +143 042024 033 051 007 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

This could break open and bust. However my guess is once it gets further west the remnant center will spark another burst and everybody will be back on board.

Well, if we're bragging...

[tolakram]

Ok, I'm out.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 061159
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Think we could see 65mph at 11?

[tolakram]

Pushing an early visible. GOES image chopped off the bottom.

[JamesCaneTracker]

121400 1534N 07957W 8419 01493 9958 +236 +149 180015 022 043 006 00

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061220
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 22 20120806
121200 1535N 08004W 8441 01482 9999 +189 +143 036026 035 054 007 02
121230 1534N 08003W 8425 01496 9980 +218 +144 355021 028 053 007 03
121300 1534N 08001W 8425 01488 9970 +222 +144 338008 017 018 004 00
121330 1534N 07959W 8443 01469 9959 +239 +146 274008 009 027 004 00
121400 1534N 07957W 8419 01493 9958 +236 +149 180015 022 043 006 00
121430 1534N 07956W 8446 01467 9983 +197 +154 173030 040 046 006 03
121500 1533N 07955W 8422 01495 9986 +197 +159 181027 040 046 005 03
121530 1532N 07956W 8439 01483 9969 +235 +162 236022 024 046 005 00
121600 1531N 07958W 8447 01480 9983 +226 +164 242029 032 044 005 00
121630 1530N 07959W 8425 01507 9992 +216 +166 242029 034 039 007 00
121700 1529N 08000W 8425 01512 9995 +219 +167 262029 031 036 006 00
121730 1528N 08001W 8436 01507 0000 +227 +168 273033 034 032 003 00
121800 1526N 08002W 8430 01523 0010 +226 +168 280028 031 028 003 00
121830 1525N 08003W 8419 01540 0019 +219 +169 286022 028 018 003 00
121900 1524N 08004W 8443 01518 0025 +215 +169 297022 024 005 002 03
121930 1524N 08005W 8422 01541 0027 +212 +170 302019 022 001 003 00
122000 1523N 08007W 8437 01528 0035 +205 +169 311016 020 002 003 00
122030 1522N 08008W 8438 01528 0047 +189 +168 297011 014 004 002 00
122100 1521N 08009W 8424 01545 0051 +185 +165 294010 011 003 002 00
122130 1519N 08010W 8435 01538 0054 +188 +162 300009 010 005 003 00
$$

[cycloneye]

Time: 12:04:30Z
Coordinates: 15.5167N 79.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 302° at 11 knots (From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots* (~ 18.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (~ 0.31 in/hr*)

[Sanibel]

Looks like Recon found the center well inside the CDO, meaning Ernie is well centered. Time to start considering RI once you realize the future track and previous bombing tendencies in this zone. Not saying it will, but the possibility is there with current behavior and pressure drops.

Looks like winds haven't pulled in yet after fanning out yesterday. 15KT Flight Level winds with 997 pressure???

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure yet found,995.8 mbs.

121330 1534N 07959W 8443 01469 9959 +239 +146 274008 009 027 004 00
121400 1534N 07957W 8419 01493 9958 +236 +149 180015 022 043 006 00
121430 1534N 07956W 8446 01467 9983 +197 +154 173030 040 046 006 03

[AJC3]

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Lowest pressure yet found,995.8 mbs.

121330 1534N 07959W 8443 01469 9959 +239 +146 274008 009 027 004 00
121400 1534N 07957W 8419 01493 9958 +236 +149 180015 022 043 006 00
121430 1534N 07956W 8446 01467 9983 +197 +154 173030 040 046 006 03

What do you think well see at 11 cycloneye?

[tailgater]

Let's wait for the VDM for a true Pressure at the center. Buoy drop.

[RL3AO]

Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)

Dew point still isn't quite where you want it to be but certainly better. Not sure about RI but I think some quick intensification is possible in the short run.

In the long run maybe can't rule out something like Joan.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Ernesto truly lives by the term: Never Say Die!

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061230
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 23 20120806
122200 1518N 08012W 8428 01546 0058 +184 +159 289008 010 005 003 00
122230 1517N 08013W 8430 01545 0059 +184 +156 300009 010 002 003 00
122300 1516N 08014W 8429 01549 0063 +182 +154 295008 009 001 003 00
122330 1515N 08015W 8430 01549 0064 +184 +151 295009 009 002 001 00
122400 1514N 08017W 8433 01547 0067 +180 +150 307010 010 000 004 00
122430 1513N 08018W 8428 01552 0070 +175 +148 308012 013 000 004 00
122500 1512N 08019W 8429 01551 0070 +176 +146 301013 014 001 004 00
122530 1510N 08020W 8430 01550 0068 +180 +145 306013 013 001 003 00
122600 1509N 08021W 8429 01551 0071 +180 +143 303013 013 001 004 00
122630 1508N 08023W 8429 01555 0073 +177 +142 305012 013 003 003 00
122700 1507N 08024W 8430 01552 0074 +176 +141 306011 012 001 006 00
122730 1506N 08025W 8429 01557 0078 +175 +140 312010 011 000 005 00
122800 1505N 08026W 8432 01555 0081 +175 +139 316010 010 001 004 00
122830 1504N 08028W 8427 01559 0080 +173 +139 332010 011 000 004 00
122900 1503N 08029W 8430 01557 0081 +174 +138 329011 011 000 005 00
122930 1501N 08030W 8429 01558 0084 +170 +138 330010 012 000 005 00
123000 1500N 08031W 8430 01559 0088 +165 +137 320009 010 002 004 00
123030 1459N 08033W 8429 01558 0085 +165 +136 319009 009 001 004 00
123100 1458N 08034W 8430 01557 0084 +168 +136 324012 013 000 005 00
123130 1457N 08035W 8429 01558 0083 +172 +135 331013 014 000 004 00
$$
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