ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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OuterBanker
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#3501 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:51 pm

Breathing a sigh of relief here. Local met declared that we may get some rain from Issac next thurs, but in no way will we recieve any direct impacts.
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Re: Re:

#3502 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:54 pm

ozonepete wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Not sure why people are saying there's not an eye when it's very visible on geostationary imagery and microwave and recon reported a partial eyewall structure.


That's an "eye-like feature", a center of circulation, but it isn't a classic eye because this is not a hurricane and it is not embedded in a core of strong thunderstorms. As our understanding has increased as to what we traditionally called a hurricane eye and what we can see now on satellite and radar, we have to make distinctions between a true eye and an "eye-like feature". Notice how it's not really closed anyway - very open to the southeast and there is no core of thunderstorms around it.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 242345.jpg


This last pass could indicate a eyewall forming. That area is getting more distinct and thunderstorms are building thicker on the western side of it. Could potential be the developing center of the core...
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Re:

#3503 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:56 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:And it [the eye] appears to not be the real COC.

I saw that too, the actual center is slightly NW of that feature, thats just an area absent of convection due to dry air still being in the system. Recon has not reported a partial eyewall structure in several hours and is not reporting one now, so it clearly is not one. That said, the actual center is starting to see small bursts of deep convection around it, so it is improving, though it is likely too little too late, and as expected, we will have to wait til after the storm exits Cuba to see another strengthening trend.
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Re: Re:

#3504 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:00 pm

ozonepete wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Not sure why people are saying there's not an eye when it's very visible on geostationary imagery and microwave and recon reported a partial eyewall structure.


That's an "eye-like feature", a center of circulation, but it isn't a classic eye because this is not a hurricane and it is not embedded in a core of strong thunderstorms. As our understanding has increased as to what we traditionally called a hurricane eye and what we can see now on satellite and radar, we have to make distinctions between a true eye and an "eye-like feature". Notice how it's not really closed anyway - very open to the southeast and there is no core of thunderstorms around it.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 5.jpgquote]


agree, that is a dry air induced eye like feature if thats a term.... :D thats not a true "eye" as we come to know them...
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Re: Re:

#3505 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:06 pm

ROCK wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Not sure why people are saying there's not an eye when it's very visible on geostationary imagery and microwave and recon reported a partial eyewall structure.


That's an "eye-like feature", a center of circulation, but it isn't a classic eye because this is not a hurricane and it is not embedded in a core of strong thunderstorms. As our understanding has increased as to what we traditionally called a hurricane eye and what we can see now on satellite and radar, we have to make distinctions between a true eye and an "eye-like feature". Notice how it's not really closed anyway - very open to the southeast and there is no core of thunderstorms around it.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 5.jpgquote]


agree, that is a dry air induced eye like feature if thats a term.... :D thats not a true "eye" as we come to know them...


I got "eye like feature" from some NHC discussions and some arguments with Derek Ortt, lol. :lol:
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Re: Re:

#3506 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:07 pm

ROCK wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Not sure why people are saying there's not an eye when it's very visible on geostationary imagery and microwave and recon reported a partial eyewall structure.


That's an "eye-like feature", a center of circulation, but it isn't a classic eye because this is not a hurricane and it is not embedded in a core of strong thunderstorms. As our understanding has increased as to what we traditionally called a hurricane eye and what we can see now on satellite and radar, we have to make distinctions between a true eye and an "eye-like feature". Notice how it's not really closed anyway - very open to the southeast and there is no core of thunderstorms around it.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 5.jpgquote]


agree, that is a dry air induced eye like feature if thats a term.... :D thats not a true "eye" as we come to know them...

Its not even an "eye-like feature" at all, as its not the center of circulation. Actually, what might be considered the real "eye like feature is slightly west of it now, and is completely surrounded by tiny bursts of deep convection, easiest seen on IR imagery.
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#3507 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:07 pm

Looks like some Storms are starting to fire and build around the center...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3508 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:08 pm

:uarrow: this is "done" as far as strengthening goes until it gets north of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3509 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:11 pm

ozonepete wrote::uarrow: this is "done" as far as strengthening goes until it gets north of Cuba.



Gutsy Call :D
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3510 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:12 pm

I slaved over this image for a long time, so you better enjoy it! :lol: (Okay, so really 90% of it was trying to figure out an easier way to create it, with the actual wind probs, versus input everything by hand...and by Scot, I believe I done it!)

This is another one of my wind graphics, once again using the 20% or greater probability line off of the NHC's wind probability graphics. This time, the lines match up perfectly to what they have, because I spent almost 2 hours trying to figure out how to get the images I want overlaid on each other, all colored the same, the probs that were less than 20% erased, etc...once it all came together, I overlaid that image onto one of Storm2K's mark up maps so I could have the banner at the top and bottom...so if you DON'T see this one on skeetobite's website, it's because it is custom made! (As a reminder, anyone who would like to create a forecast map is free to view the thread in this forum with the link to the different maps!)

Once again, no hurricane force wind probabilities, because they are less than 20% currently...but I have a feeling they'll be there by tomorrow or Sunday at the latest.

EDIT: Oops...no, the 35 knots + doesn't follow the contour of the south end of Cuba, it is supposed to connect in a straight line, but apparently it didn't make the transfer...oh well.

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Image
Last edited by brunota2003 on Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#3511 Postby WxEnthus » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:16 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Right now it looks like Isaac might be taking a breather and becoming almost stationary, based on satellite imagery and recon.


I know the NHC said he's slowed down considerably so I'm looking at the recon path and dropsonde readings on GE -- what were they doing here? For a while it appears that the center was tracking southwest or made a partial loop. Or were they trying to determine if there are still two vortices swirling around a mean center? I'm a bit confused by the 4 readings in the yellow circle (from previous passes). The blue circle is the latest reading. Thoughts?


Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3512 Postby Stephanie » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:18 pm

VERY nice Tim!

I'm hoping that the rain will make it's way into a good part of the Midwest and Plains and help the drought situation. I'm just concerned about flooding though. Tropical storms are usually our saviors during a dry summer.
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#3513 Postby Senobia » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:20 pm

Alrighty, if anyone wants to toss out an "all clear" for the TX/LA border area, we would welcome it. Really, we would. :lol:
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#3514 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:23 pm

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Don't hold your breath. Will have to wait and see how long Isaac takes time to think. The slower she goes and this point, the further west she could track. But that is not a given either. I know that doesn't help.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3515 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:23 pm

Can someone please tell me whats going on off the coast of S Fla? This cant be associated with Isaac can it?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3516 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:25 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Can someone please tell me whats going on off the coast of S Fla? This cant be associated with Isaac can it?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes


Looks like it MAY be part of Isaac's Outflow... Not sure though.
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#3517 Postby summersquall » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:26 pm

Great project brunota! Those wind speed probabilities are for sustained winds, right?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3518 Postby jinftl » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:34 pm

This is not a typical thunderstorm complex - moving west at 25 mph...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
928 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 924 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF KEY BISCAYNE TO 5 MILES EAST OF PRINCETON...AND MOVING
WEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
KEY BISCAYNE...
MIAMI...
COCONUT GROVE...
CORAL GABLES...
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI...
WESTCHESTER...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.



JamesCaneTracker wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Can someone please tell me whats going on off the coast of S Fla? This cant be associated with Isaac can it?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes


Looks like it MAY be part of Isaac's Outflow... Not sure though.
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Re: Re:

#3519 Postby monicaei » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:35 pm

WxEnthus wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Right now it looks like Isaac might be taking a breather and becoming almost stationary, based on satellite imagery and recon.


I know the NHC said he's slowed down considerably so I'm looking at the recon path and dropsonde readings on GE -- what were they doing here? For a while it appears that the center was tracking southwest or made a partial loop. Or were they trying to determine if there are still two vortices swirling around a mean center? I'm a bit confused by the 4 readings in the yellow circle (from previous passes). The blue circle is the latest reading. Thoughts?




I have been watching this too, would love to know what it means?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3520 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:36 pm

Blinhart wrote:
tgenius wrote:All I know is a huge feeder band is about to smack Miami with some serious rain!!


really don't think that is a feeder band.


Just got nail down here in Key Largo been blowing all anice squall just blew throughfternoon. But
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