ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Kennethb
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#3501 Postby Kennethb » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:32 pm

WV loop of the northern hemisphere showing the trough dropping south out of Alaska towards the west coast to what should be to pump a ridge across the midwest which should induce more trough on the east coast. How exactly all the features react will help guide Isaac.

WV loop: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10
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#3502 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:32 pm

Jevo wrote:We really need to start discerning landfalls...

In the 18z runs little if anything changed with the 1st CONUS landfall (South Florida) .... If anything the East trend continued. I think people not in the location of the 2nd Landfall (NGOM) look in and see "Landfall shifted West" and may get confused...

So as a reminder

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/957/sfconus.jpg


Thank you so much Jevo, Doen here in Key Largo picking up stuff rooping off the boat and will close the shutters tomorrow.

I was like damn all everyone talksabout is the last land fall. From how it looks now south fla could get a little surpriise to.



*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags - please remove them when quoting posts with images
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Re: Re:

#3503 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:37 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
Jevo wrote:We really need to start discerning landfalls...

In the 18z runs little if anything changed with the 1st CONUS landfall (South Florida) .... If anything the East trend continued. I think people not in the location of the 2nd Landfall (NGOM) look in and see "Landfall shifted West" and may get confused...

So as a reminder

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/957/sfconus.jpg


Thank you so much Jevo, Doen here in Key Largo picking up stuff rooping off the boat and will close the shutters tomorrow.

I was like damn all everyone talksabout is the last land fall. From how it looks now south fla could get a little surpriise to.


Be safe down there MST.. I know you guys in the Keys usually don't get out of bed for anything weaker than a Cat 3, but I haven't seen 1 model today that doesn't have some part of the Keys in it's path as first CONUS landfall. I expect you guys will wake to some type of Warning tomorrow morning that may extended to the peninsula depending on the wind field.
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#3504 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:52 pm

NAM is running.
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#3505 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:58 pm

How reliable are those teleconnections? If it were that simple then I think forecasting Atlantic storms would be much more simple and would have a much better success rate.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3506 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:01 pm

Also...for those who may not understand models (or, really, want to learn more about weather)...here are a couple of REALLY good links for you:

More detailed/more in depth, has a section about Numerical models:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php

NWS' more generalized info:
http://forecast.weather.gov/jetstream/matrix.htm

A block of instruction on Zulu time (Also referred to as UTC on here and elsewhere), and how to interpret it:
http://forecast.weather.gov/jetstream/synoptic/time.htm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3507 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:11 pm

SapphireSea wrote:This is exactly the attitude of everyone down here. I live near Homestead, and even down in FL. City they are talking about 20-30mph winds at best. Seems pretty reckless to me.


Based on the NHC's track and tropical storm watches, it's about right. I think it would be worse to overplay it.
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#3508 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:12 pm

0z NAM +24 (Found a new pretty map)

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3509 Postby SapphireSea » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:15 pm

That +24 image shows a pretty aggressive ridge filling back in. I am going to bet that NAM is way west with it. ( I know NAM is not good for individual feature tracking). This is definately looking like a paradigm shift so far.
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#3510 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:15 pm

Need a Promet for this question.... If Im trying to look at upper air patterns that steer a storm... is that at the 500mb level or 850mb level?
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#3511 Postby jeff » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:16 pm

Kennethb wrote:WV loop of the northern hemisphere showing the trough dropping south out of Alaska towards the west coast to what should be to pump a ridge across the midwest which should induce more trough on the east coast. How exactly all the features react will help guide Isaac.

WV loop: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10


Ah yes...very good....you are looking in the right place. Question is does it dig down pumping the ridge or dig and then shear out...some of the latest 18Z runs shear the trough out with the central plains ridge more ENE and expansive in a more zonal pattern than amplified.
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#3512 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:16 pm

FWIW, H 30, NAM still over Cuban N coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3513 Postby Javlin » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:16 pm

Dan over @flhurricane.com posted this discussion about the NAM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

VALID AUG 24/1200 UTC THRU AUG 28/0000 UTC

...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...

THE TRACK OF ISAAC IN THE 12Z NAM NOW MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE...WHEREAS EARLIER NAM RUNS HAD BEEN FAR TO
THE RIGHT. IN THIS RUN...HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IS MUCH
DIFFERENT. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...AND PERHAPS A SECOND LOCAL PRESSURE MINIMUM SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRACK CENTER-LINE. THE NAM NOW SHOWS THE MORE SOUTHWESTERN
MINIMUM BECOMING EQUAL TO THE ORIGINAL CENTER...AND THEN BECOMING
DOMINANT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. THIS NOTION IS NOT REFLECTED
IN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT AT LEAST BEARS WATCHING GIVEN THAT THE
SYSTEM IS BROAD...HAS BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE...AND WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ANTILLES.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3514 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:17 pm

I asked this over on the recon thread but didn't get an answer:

Is all of the G-IV data getting into the 0z models??? The reason I ask is because I thought the plane was still out there just about 30 minutes ago and hadn't finished collecting all the data.

SFT
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#3515 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:17 pm

Looks like the NAM has a much stronger ridge than it showed last night, or even today.
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Re:

#3516 Postby jeff » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:19 pm

Jevo wrote:Need a Promet for this question.... If Im trying to look at upper air patterns that steer a storm... is that at the 500mb level or 850mb level?


It depends on the storm intensity...weaker system (weak TS) are steered more by the low level flow (850mb or below) while stronger systems (strong TS or hurricane) you want to look at the 700-200mb steering...or the 700/500/300mb charts out in time.
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#3517 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:20 pm

0z NAM +30

Image
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Re: Re:

#3518 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:21 pm

jeff wrote:
Jevo wrote:Need a Promet for this question.... If Im trying to look at upper air patterns that steer a storm... is that at the 500mb level or 850mb level?


It depends on the storm intensity...weaker system (weak TS) are steered more by the low level flow (850mb or below) while stronger systems (strong TS or hurricane) you want to look at the 700-200mb steering...or the 700/500/300mb charts out in time.


TY Jeff. Im pulling the 850mb charts for this NAM run.. Should I start using the 500mb at this point?
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Re: Re:

#3519 Postby artist » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:22 pm

jeff wrote:
Kennethb wrote:WV loop of the northern hemisphere showing the trough dropping south out of Alaska towards the west coast to what should be to pump a ridge across the midwest which should induce more trough on the east coast. How exactly all the features react will help guide Isaac.

WV loop: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10


Ah yes...very good....you are looking in the right place. Question is does it dig down pumping the ridge or dig and then shear out...some of the latest 18Z runs shear the trough out with the central plains ridge more ENE and expansive in a more zonal pattern than amplified.


ok, jeff, for this dummy here, what does that mean ? :oops:
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#3520 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:23 pm

The NAM is showing a stronger ridge? Isn't this what the NAM is good for? Very interesting. Does this run of the NAM include the new data that was collected today or is this run too early for that to have been included?
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