ATL: ISAAC - Models
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WV loop of the northern hemisphere showing the trough dropping south out of Alaska towards the west coast to what should be to pump a ridge across the midwest which should induce more trough on the east coast. How exactly all the features react will help guide Isaac.
WV loop: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10
WV loop: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10
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Re:
Jevo wrote:We really need to start discerning landfalls...
In the 18z runs little if anything changed with the 1st CONUS landfall (South Florida) .... If anything the East trend continued. I think people not in the location of the 2nd Landfall (NGOM) look in and see "Landfall shifted West" and may get confused...
So as a reminder
http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/957/sfconus.jpg
Thank you so much Jevo, Doen here in Key Largo picking up stuff rooping off the boat and will close the shutters tomorrow.
I was like damn all everyone talksabout is the last land fall. From how it looks now south fla could get a little surpriise to.
*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags - please remove them when quoting posts with images
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Re: Re:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Jevo wrote:We really need to start discerning landfalls...
In the 18z runs little if anything changed with the 1st CONUS landfall (South Florida) .... If anything the East trend continued. I think people not in the location of the 2nd Landfall (NGOM) look in and see "Landfall shifted West" and may get confused...
So as a reminder
http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/957/sfconus.jpg
Thank you so much Jevo, Doen here in Key Largo picking up stuff rooping off the boat and will close the shutters tomorrow.
I was like damn all everyone talksabout is the last land fall. From how it looks now south fla could get a little surpriise to.
Be safe down there MST.. I know you guys in the Keys usually don't get out of bed for anything weaker than a Cat 3, but I haven't seen 1 model today that doesn't have some part of the Keys in it's path as first CONUS landfall. I expect you guys will wake to some type of Warning tomorrow morning that may extended to the peninsula depending on the wind field.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Also...for those who may not understand models (or, really, want to learn more about weather)...here are a couple of REALLY good links for you:
More detailed/more in depth, has a section about Numerical models:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php
NWS' more generalized info:
http://forecast.weather.gov/jetstream/matrix.htm
A block of instruction on Zulu time (Also referred to as UTC on here and elsewhere), and how to interpret it:
http://forecast.weather.gov/jetstream/synoptic/time.htm
More detailed/more in depth, has a section about Numerical models:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php
NWS' more generalized info:
http://forecast.weather.gov/jetstream/matrix.htm
A block of instruction on Zulu time (Also referred to as UTC on here and elsewhere), and how to interpret it:
http://forecast.weather.gov/jetstream/synoptic/time.htm
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Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
SapphireSea wrote:This is exactly the attitude of everyone down here. I live near Homestead, and even down in FL. City they are talking about 20-30mph winds at best. Seems pretty reckless to me.
Based on the NHC's track and tropical storm watches, it's about right. I think it would be worse to overplay it.
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0z NAM +24 (Found a new pretty map)


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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
That +24 image shows a pretty aggressive ridge filling back in. I am going to bet that NAM is way west with it. ( I know NAM is not good for individual feature tracking). This is definately looking like a paradigm shift so far.
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Need a Promet for this question.... If Im trying to look at upper air patterns that steer a storm... is that at the 500mb level or 850mb level?
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re:
Kennethb wrote:WV loop of the northern hemisphere showing the trough dropping south out of Alaska towards the west coast to what should be to pump a ridge across the midwest which should induce more trough on the east coast. How exactly all the features react will help guide Isaac.
WV loop: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10
Ah yes...very good....you are looking in the right place. Question is does it dig down pumping the ridge or dig and then shear out...some of the latest 18Z runs shear the trough out with the central plains ridge more ENE and expansive in a more zonal pattern than amplified.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Dan over @flhurricane.com posted this discussion about the NAM
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012
VALID AUG 24/1200 UTC THRU AUG 28/0000 UTC
...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...
THE TRACK OF ISAAC IN THE 12Z NAM NOW MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE...WHEREAS EARLIER NAM RUNS HAD BEEN FAR TO
THE RIGHT. IN THIS RUN...HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IS MUCH
DIFFERENT. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...AND PERHAPS A SECOND LOCAL PRESSURE MINIMUM SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRACK CENTER-LINE. THE NAM NOW SHOWS THE MORE SOUTHWESTERN
MINIMUM BECOMING EQUAL TO THE ORIGINAL CENTER...AND THEN BECOMING
DOMINANT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. THIS NOTION IS NOT REFLECTED
IN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT AT LEAST BEARS WATCHING GIVEN THAT THE
SYSTEM IS BROAD...HAS BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE...AND WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ANTILLES.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012
VALID AUG 24/1200 UTC THRU AUG 28/0000 UTC
...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...
THE TRACK OF ISAAC IN THE 12Z NAM NOW MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE...WHEREAS EARLIER NAM RUNS HAD BEEN FAR TO
THE RIGHT. IN THIS RUN...HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IS MUCH
DIFFERENT. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...AND PERHAPS A SECOND LOCAL PRESSURE MINIMUM SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRACK CENTER-LINE. THE NAM NOW SHOWS THE MORE SOUTHWESTERN
MINIMUM BECOMING EQUAL TO THE ORIGINAL CENTER...AND THEN BECOMING
DOMINANT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. THIS NOTION IS NOT REFLECTED
IN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT AT LEAST BEARS WATCHING GIVEN THAT THE
SYSTEM IS BROAD...HAS BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE...AND WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ANTILLES.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
I asked this over on the recon thread but didn't get an answer:
Is all of the G-IV data getting into the 0z models??? The reason I ask is because I thought the plane was still out there just about 30 minutes ago and hadn't finished collecting all the data.
SFT
Is all of the G-IV data getting into the 0z models??? The reason I ask is because I thought the plane was still out there just about 30 minutes ago and hadn't finished collecting all the data.
SFT
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Looks like the NAM has a much stronger ridge than it showed last night, or even today.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Jevo wrote:Need a Promet for this question.... If Im trying to look at upper air patterns that steer a storm... is that at the 500mb level or 850mb level?
It depends on the storm intensity...weaker system (weak TS) are steered more by the low level flow (850mb or below) while stronger systems (strong TS or hurricane) you want to look at the 700-200mb steering...or the 700/500/300mb charts out in time.
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0z NAM +30


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Re: Re:
jeff wrote:Jevo wrote:Need a Promet for this question.... If Im trying to look at upper air patterns that steer a storm... is that at the 500mb level or 850mb level?
It depends on the storm intensity...weaker system (weak TS) are steered more by the low level flow (850mb or below) while stronger systems (strong TS or hurricane) you want to look at the 700-200mb steering...or the 700/500/300mb charts out in time.
TY Jeff. Im pulling the 850mb charts for this NAM run.. Should I start using the 500mb at this point?
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: Re:
jeff wrote:Kennethb wrote:WV loop of the northern hemisphere showing the trough dropping south out of Alaska towards the west coast to what should be to pump a ridge across the midwest which should induce more trough on the east coast. How exactly all the features react will help guide Isaac.
WV loop: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10
Ah yes...very good....you are looking in the right place. Question is does it dig down pumping the ridge or dig and then shear out...some of the latest 18Z runs shear the trough out with the central plains ridge more ENE and expansive in a more zonal pattern than amplified.
ok, jeff, for this dummy here, what does that mean ?

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