ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re: Re:

#3541 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:49 pm

thetruesms wrote:
Jevo wrote:0z NAM +45 (Little alley opened there)

[img]http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/1270/nam2212012082500f45relv.png[img]
Rather than the height/vort image, you may want to show the height/winds image. The wind flow at 500 can sometimes give you a ballpark idea of the steering, as well. Granted, it's not perfect (and sometimes not very good), and you'd rather get a mean wind through the steering layer. But, in a pinch when there isn't much shear, the 500 winds could give you a general idea of steering flow here.


Here is the +57 NAM height/winds

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#3542 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:50 pm

HR75, its heading due north...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3543 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:52 pm

HR75....Weakness is still there... NAM is heading North...Doesn't look strong though.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#3544 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:53 pm

What an odd run. Stronger ridging, big weakness, ridging building back in, wide open again...lol
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3545 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:53 pm

10p NHC update

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#3546 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:54 pm

Drifting WNW at the end of the NAM.
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

#3547 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:54 pm

Just a tad, TAD bit west with the cone.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#3548 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:57 pm

If the NAM is drifting WNW at the end, is it seeing what so many other models see which is weak steering currents? Is ridging building back in? I'm trying to decide if this was another west shift or east since I can't look at TC placement but trying to figure out what the ridging and weaknesses mean.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3549 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:01 pm

interesting in the NAM is that at 84hr the weakness is pretty much gone and the mid-plains death ridge and ATL ridge are about to bridge. We saw in the 18Z runs that a stall at the coast or just inland is a possibility.....NAM would suggest this as well with the weakness closing at 84hr.....JMO....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re:

#3550 Postby ObsessedMiami » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:01 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Just a tad, TAD bit west with the cone.

But slightly east across the SFL component
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re: Re:

#3551 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:05 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Just a tad, TAD bit west with the cone.

But slightly east across the SFL component


Pretty soon the cone will be a squiggly line.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3552 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:08 pm

Looks like NAM trended North and East vs the 18z (Goes to their full page now so should show up)

00z 78hr
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-p ... L&hour=078

18z 84hr
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-p ... L&hour=084
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

#3553 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:10 pm

We don't look at NAM for track. It's right up there with the NOGAPS.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3554 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:11 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:Looks like NAM trended North and East vs the 18z (Goes to their full page now so should show up)

00z 78hr
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-p ... L&hour=078

18z 84hr
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-p ... L&hour=084



of course it did....it produced a 2nd low on the other side of Cuba in the 18Z..... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10156
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3555 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:16 pm

Rock, the anticipation is building for 00z GFS! Are you ready??? :lol:
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3556 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:16 pm

NAM does a good job with ridges, weaknesses, etc....Awful with track, strength of storm.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColdFusion
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:46 pm
Location: Addison, TX

Re:

#3557 Postby ColdFusion » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:19 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:We don't look at NAM for track. It's right up there with the NOGAPS.


True, but the ridge placement is very interesting and does have some value.
0 likes   
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#3558 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:23 pm

But the ridging on the NAM confused the heck out of me. I saw it going back and forth between people saying the ridging was stronger, to a nice weakness, to the ridging being back. Can one of you who knows how to read those maps tell me what your opinion is and how you think a more reliable model for TC would handle Isaac with that set up?
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#3559 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:23 pm

the 00z models are going to be interesting. lets see how many keep the trough over florida longer and thus a track closer to SE Florida coast. I know one of the models will do it.

apparently from the discussion the gfs may not change much this run since it apparently got the placement right in the 18z run.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#3560 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:26 pm

The GFS could change with the new data though, right? It will have something fresh in it that could lead to some kind of change.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests