ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ROCK]

looks like by 84 hrs on the 18zGFS that this becomes a really potent tropical storm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I see a 1001mb at 84hr.....slowly getting stronger....not the insane intensity from the other day....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP084.gif

[CourierPR]

Unbelievable! We have an area of disturbed weather well east of the islands getting its act together and already we have posters taking this into the GOM based on very preliminary model output which will likely change once the system strengthens. Parochial prognostications aside, maybe we should turn our attention to the Windward and Leeward Islands first as they face a possible threat next week.

[wzrgirl1]

This is the first time this season that I am getting that feeling. Can't wait to see how this one evolves!

[ROCK]

96hr under PR and DR....might miss the big islands but it will be close enough to make things messy....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif


111hr...sliding below DR....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[abajan]

and wa la.....18Z GFS initialized well enough....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

...

Just to clarify, you mean voilà, right?

[ROCK]

and wa la.....18Z GFS initialized well enough....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

...

Just to clarify, you mean voilà, right?

everyone is a critic.....

114hr...look at that line up you have behind 94L!!


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP114.gif


126hr...heading for Jamaica....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP126.gif

[SeminoleWind]

Looks identical to the 12Z

[ROCK]

yeah slams Jamiaca....at 147hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Riptide]

Looks identical to the 12Z

It's slower or northeast of 12z, hard to tell. Don't think this one can go any further west than the 12z run, based on the synoptic pattern.

EDIT: Moving north through Cuba.

[Hurricaneman]

162hr landfall in eastern Cuba, way east of the 12z run

[SeminoleWind]

Looks identical to the 12Z

It's slower or northeast of 12z, hard to tell. Don't think this one can go any further west than the 12z run, based on the synoptic pattern.

EDIT: Moving north through Cuba.

I stand corrected, after looking back at 12Z and comparing to 18z it does appear a bit slower and further north.

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it going to pay us a visit in South Florida???

[SeminoleWind]

168HR moving through eastern Cuba, that would do a number on the structure of it for sure.

[SeminoleWind]

@ 204Hrs, the keys see some action.

[JPmia]

That 18z GFS run kind of reminds me of a previous Debby that was supposed to pummel south florida lol .. we shall see

[SeminoleWind]

That reminds me of a previous Debby that was supposed to pummel south florida lol .. we shall see

I know right, lets wait for the 00Z run and see if it moves east even more or back west again, either way if it went over Cuba like it showed there wouldnt be much left anyway. JMO

[Stormlover2012]

long ways to go, u just need to look for consistency in the runs, so just go with the first 5 days of the model runs

[JPmia]

That reminds me of a previous Debby that was supposed to pummel south florida lol .. we shall see

I know right, lets wait for the 00Z run and see if it moves east even more or back west again, either way if it went over Cuba like it showed there wouldnt be much left anyway. JMO

With that said about Debby.. there have been plenty of hurricanes that went over Cuba to come back with a vengenance so yeah.. now it's got my attention and I will be model watching!

[Hurricaneman]

240 hr 18zGFS has landfall in Tampa, with the pattern it really can't be discounted. The 500mb heights shown could have this go anywhere from the eastern Gulf to Nova Scotia if they happen as depicted

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

That reminds me of a previous Debby that was supposed to pummel south florida lol .. we shall see

I know right, lets wait for the 00Z run and see if it moves east even more or back west again, either way if it went over Cuba like it showed there wouldnt be much left anyway. JMO

With that said about Debby.. there have been plenty of hurricanes that went over Cuba to come back with a vengenance so yeah.. now it's got my attention and I will be model watching!

Last system of the "plenty" to go through Eastern Cuba and come back with a vengenance?