ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Nimbus]

With all the convection still being sheared east and no new storms forming near the LLC Debby is probably getting too shallow to intensify much. Future development depends on the upper air pattern and it would probably take several days of favorable conditions to become even a cat 1 hurricane. Have to wait and see what recon finds this morning. The models probably won't dissipate her if the shear is forecast to relax.

[Meso]

The 06z GFS is busy running at the moment and it seems that it moves Debby over the general Tampa area, bringing extremely high rainfall totals to the eastern side of Florida in the 50-84 hour mark. Debby then moves off the coast of Florida at around 84 hours, moving seemingly NE at 90 hours. Will be interesting to see if it follows the EURO at all from this point, but rainfall looks like it may end up being a problem for parts of Floridas east coast if this were to verify.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The cell that produced the tornado near St. Petersburg yesterday came through like a hurricane. The wind gusts were in excess of hurricane force with that cell. Those winds were MUCH STRONGER than anything I saw with Hurricane Jeanne in 2004, which also produced gusts just above hurricane force. It was a howling sound like a train on the roof. There is damage to my roof from those winds. Also, someone was in the tornado near Clearwater and captured the tornado's winds of 100-110 mph on video according to ABC Action 5 AM News this morning.

[ronjon]

She appears to be drifting off to the east-northeast a little now. With no deep convection hard to see it getting any stronger. Shear has dropped off to the 5-10 kt range this morning though. Not quite understanding NHC's track at 5 am since the Euro and GFS (and CMC) are in pretty strong agreement taking this east across FL and then intensifying it off the east coast. Perhaps another model cycle of agreement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[TheBurn]

10:15 UTC RGB




WV_Enhanced

[tolakram]

Global model roundup, June 25th, 0z

48 hours







96 hours








NOGAPS, for what it's worth, very slowly moves west and dissipates.

[tolakram]

Not much left of Debbie.

Nighttime low cloud image



Loop: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc

[wxman57]

The GFS was actually correct in that the convection, at least, is racing off to the northeast. However, Debby's center was left behind in the Gulf. Storms rarely recover from this. Obs offshore suggest that Debby's winds are generally around 25 to 30 kts now.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THROUGH TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
ALABAMA-FLORDA BORDER EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE CIRCULATION...THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW
CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.
DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT...BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE
TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...BUT A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEBBY REMAINS IN
A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO
ANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS
MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE
LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 28.6N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 28.8N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.9N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.2N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 29.4N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 29.7N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 30.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

The GFS was actually correct in that the convection, at least, is racing off to the northeast. However, Debby's center was left behind in the Gulf. Storms rarely recover from this. Obs offshore suggest that Debby's winds are generally around 25 to 30 kts now.

Is Bones ready to announce the end?

[wxman57]

The GFS was actually correct in that the convection, at least, is racing off to the northeast. However, Debby's center was left behind in the Gulf. Storms rarely recover from this. Obs offshore suggest that Debby's winds are generally around 25 to 30 kts now.

Is Bones ready to announce the end?

Funny you should mention that, I was JUST thinking the same thing...

[cycloneye]

The morning mission is going on now.

URNT15 KNHC 251113
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 04 20120625
110600 3011N 08808W 8380 01587 0055 +175 +118 034040 040 /// /// 03
110630 3011N 08806W 8370 01596 0055 +173 +114 034041 041 /// /// 03
110700 3010N 08805W 8373 01589 0055 +170 +118 035040 041 /// /// 03
110730 3010N 08803W 8372 01591 0055 +173 +111 035042 042 /// /// 03
110800 3009N 08802W 8368 01593 0051 +175 +107 034042 042 030 000 00
110830 3009N 08800W 8379 01584 0053 +175 +102 032042 043 029 000 00
110900 3008N 08759W 8371 01591 0052 +175 +101 032043 044 028 000 03
110930 3008N 08757W 8386 01582 0050 +176 +102 032043 044 028 000 00
111000 3007N 08755W 8368 01594 0049 +175 +110 033044 044 028 001 00
111030 3007N 08754W 8377 01583 0046 +175 +108 033045 045 027 000 00
111100 3006N 08752W 8371 01588 0045 +175 +108 030044 045 027 002 00
111130 3006N 08751W 8377 01580 0044 +176 +110 032045 046 028 000 00
111200 3005N 08749W 8373 01584 0043 +175 +113 032045 045 029 000 00
111230 3005N 08748W 8349 01613 0048 +176 +116 033044 045 029 000 03
111300 3004N 08746W 8436 01512 0037 +180 +116 034043 043 028 000 03
111330 3003N 08745W 8433 01520 0039 +180 +118 035044 044 029 001 00
111400 3003N 08743W 8425 01526 0037 +179 +118 035045 045 029 002 00
111430 3002N 08741W 8429 01518 0034 +179 +117 035045 045 029 000 00
111500 3002N 08740W 8428 01521 0036 +178 +120 033045 045 029 001 00
111530 3001N 08738W 8429 01521 0037 +179 +119 033045 045 030 001 00
$$

[tolakram]

First Visible.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

debbie could still fire up. Can't call it dead yet.

[tolakram]

Current radar around Florida



http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixed ... x&ID=AMX19

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 251123
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 05 20120625
111600 3001N 08737W 8432 01516 0037 +176 +122 033046 046 029 001 00
111630 3000N 08735W 8428 01521 0038 +174 +126 033046 046 029 001 03
111700 3000N 08734W 8426 01521 0035 +175 +124 034046 046 029 002 00
111730 2959N 08732W 8433 01512 0036 +175 +122 036045 046 031 001 03
111800 2959N 08731W 8425 01520 0033 +175 +124 036043 044 030 001 00
111830 2958N 08729W 8429 01512 0030 +175 +122 035043 043 029 002 03
111900 2958N 08728W 8433 01507 0028 +175 +119 036043 043 030 000 00
111930 2957N 08726W 8433 01509 0030 +172 +120 035043 044 030 001 00
112000 2957N 08725W 8430 01509 0030 +170 +121 036044 044 031 000 00
112030 2956N 08723W 8428 01511 0030 +170 +126 038043 043 030 002 00
112100 2956N 08722W 8428 01510 0030 +167 +136 037041 043 030 000 00
112130 2955N 08720W 8435 01506 0032 +165 +148 038040 040 030 001 03
112200 2954N 08719W 8426 01512 0029 +170 +146 038040 041 031 001 03
112230 2953N 08717W 8433 01507 0029 +172 +143 040041 042 032 000 00
112300 2953N 08717W 8433 01507 0022 +174 +144 041041 042 032 001 00
112330 2951N 08715W 8442 01493 0023 +175 +144 043042 042 031 002 00
112400 2950N 08714W 8418 01518 0024 +170 +145 041039 040 031 003 00
112430 2949N 08712W 8434 01500 0024 +170 +156 041037 038 033 001 00
112500 2948N 08711W 8426 01510 0025 +166 +164 039035 036 034 000 00
112530 2947N 08710W 8428 01506 0024 +166 +166 037034 034 033 001 00
$$

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

I can do a few images but not all of them, if someone else wants to do image duty.

Wake Up!

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 251133
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 06 20120625
112600 2946N 08708W 8429 01505 0024 +165 //// 033034 035 034 000 05
112630 2945N 08707W 8436 01501 0025 +168 +166 036033 035 034 000 00
112700 2944N 08706W 8424 01510 0023 +163 //// 037033 034 036 000 01
112730 2942N 08705W 8425 01504 0024 +160 //// 038033 034 034 001 01
112800 2941N 08703W 8429 01500 0022 +160 //// 036034 034 035 001 01
112830 2940N 08702W 8433 01498 0022 +160 //// 031034 035 034 001 01
112900 2939N 08701W 8431 01502 0023 +162 //// 029035 035 033 002 01
112930 2938N 08659W 8421 01509 0019 +163 //// 032034 034 035 002 05
113000 2938N 08658W 8436 01494 0019 +165 //// 032033 033 035 001 05
113030 2937N 08656W 8426 01502 0014 +168 //// 029034 035 /// /// 05
113100 2935N 08656W 8434 01493 0013 +170 +168 031032 033 /// /// 03
113130 2934N 08655W 8438 01488 0011 +170 +167 032030 030 036 000 03
113200 2933N 08654W 8424 01501 0010 +168 //// 033029 029 037 001 01
113230 2932N 08652W 8429 01494 0010 +167 //// 032029 030 035 000 05
113300 2931N 08651W 8433 01490 0012 +165 //// 027031 031 036 000 05
113330 2930N 08650W 8427 01495 0011 +165 //// 029030 031 037 001 01
113400 2929N 08648W 8430 01492 0011 +163 //// 031027 028 036 001 01
113430 2927N 08647W 8425 01496 0011 +163 //// 032026 026 035 002 01
113500 2926N 08646W 8434 01484 0009 +162 //// 029026 027 036 002 01
113530 2925N 08644W 8432 01488 0009 +164 //// 027026 027 035 001 01
$$
;

[mutley]

The GFS was actually correct in that the convection, at least, is racing off to the northeast. However, Debby's center was left behind in the Gulf. Storms rarely recover from this. Obs offshore suggest that Debby's winds are generally around 25 to 30 kts now.

She will be sitting over water for the next three days, and there is not much of a chance to reorganize? Tropical weather is so surprising and interesting, that I can understand why people choose to do it for a living. It is a real intellectual challenge to predict.