ATL: ISAAC - Models

[southerngale]

Looks like I might need an ARK before all said and done...

In Wyoming?

[ROCK]

Looks like I might need an ARK before all said and done...

In Wyoming?

its a big storm surge....

[wxwatcher1999]

Heading NNE after landfall but very slowly? Timing is going to be so key on this thing.

Question, could it start its NNE or NE turn before landfall?

yes if it takes its time getting out of the carribean.

so if it moves quicker would that make it go farther west?

[Wx_Warrior]

Someone brought this to my attention via twitter.

Any reason why the GFS initialized this run at 1001mb, where as it's 990mb?

Man oh man.

[TropicalJon]

Heading NNE after landfall but very slowly? Timing is going to be so key on this thing.

Question, could it start its NNE or NE turn before landfall?

yes if it takes its time getting out of the carribean.

If it does take it's time getting out of the Caribbean would that mean more west initially?? Followed by NNE in the northern Gulf??

[deltadog03]

Looks like I might need an ARK before all said and done...

In Wyoming?

OOPS have I not changed my location yet?

[BigB0882]

Someone brought this to my attention via twitter.

Any reason why the GFS initialized this run at 1001mb, where as it's 990mb?

Man oh man.

That's pretty off if true. Not sure what it means, garbage in garbage out (doubtful, the run is so close to the others) or is it not enough of a difference?

[deltadog03]

Ok, FIXED.....ooops...thanks for the heads up!

[tailgater]

tonite's 00z run


Last night's ooz run

[weatherSnoop]

Ok, FIXED.....ooops...thanks for the heads up!

Might have more need for an ark at your new local!

[SapphireSea]

Someone brought this to my attention via twitter.

Any reason why the GFS initialized this run at 1001mb, where as it's 990mb?

Man oh man.

That's pretty off if true. Not sure what it means, garbage in garbage out (doubtful, the run is so close to the others) or is it not enough of a difference?

That's just a resolution quirk with the GFS. 1001mb contour would probobly be about 994-998. In the end it does not make a big difference. The vorticity maps show proper stacking that represent what the actual systems steering depth is, so the steering should be about correct with what it depicts. GFDL and HWRF's higher resolution models will give you a better initialization overview. However, tropical intensity forecasting is not what the GFS and ECMWF were created for, so one cannot expect it to tell us what exact surface pressures will be in a storm. The HWRF and GFDL are still a crapshoot for intensity anyways, and are probobly no better than SHIPS/DSHIPS. For intensity you will have to do objective (DVORAK) estimates and extrapolate the trend + obs from recon.

[thetruesms]

Someone brought this to my attention via twitter.

Any reason why the GFS initialized this run at 1001mb, where as it's 990mb?

Man oh man.

GFS doesn't really have the capability to resolve the storm's inner core, so its lowest isobar is bound to be higher than the storm's min pressure. It isn't likely to have any significant effect on the track. The inability to resolve the inner core may result in problems with the intensity, but that's fairly well known and I'm assuming not what you're asking about.

edit - dang, too slow!

[petit_bois]

Well?
So what's the deal?
one map shows Gulf Shores the the other says Panama City...
Big difference. Which map is right?


Al surface and PC 500mb level... i see

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic= Maybe Isaac's twin? 00z GFS develops strongly Kirk and threats the Lesser Antilles. Go to the models thread at Talking Tropics forum to see the run.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=2261773#p2261773

[SapphireSea]

You know, I"ve been wondering the past few model runs. ON the graphics, when it shows landfall (the 2nd landfall on norther gulf coast) the center of the storm seems to be so wide on the graphics, that it covers a large amount of real estate. Does that mean its possible that the center or cdo or wall of convection..is so wide that it would result in the graphics depicting it that way? How can you tell where it makes landfall...when the center stretches from mobile bay...to Destin Fla as depicted in one of those graphics resolution?

It's neigh impossible with the resolutions the global models run at. You would have to look for HWRF high-res for something that might resolve the center and get you a 20 mile point. Basically that last isobar can be interpreted as a cone where, anywhere in that area the center might be for the run. It's like trying to figure out which of the 'holes' of a spinning golf ball will impact the ground at a certain time. With enough mathematics you can make a guess. Good luck getting it right. Luckily hurricane centers are far bigger than a groove on a golf ball.

[SunnyThoughts]

You know, I"ve been wondering the past few model runs. ON the graphics, when it shows landfall (the 2nd landfall on norther gulf coast) the center of the storm seems to be so wide on the graphics, that it covers a large amount of real estate. Does that mean its possible that the center or cdo or wall of convection..is so wide that it would result in the graphics depicting it that way? How can you tell where it makes landfall...when the center stretches from mobile bay...to Destin Fla as depicted in one of those graphics resolution?

It's neigh impossible with the resolutions the global models run at. You would have to look for HWRF high-res for something that might resolve the center and get you a 20 mile point. Basically that last isobar can be interpreted as a cone where, anywhere in that area the center might be for the run. It's like trying to figure out which of the 'holes' of a spinning golf ball will impact the ground at a certain time. With enough mathematics you can make a guess. Good luck getting it right. Luckily hurricane centers are far bigger than a groove on a golf ball.

Great answer to a fairly ridiculous question. Thanks Sapphire

[Pileus]

DeltaDog3, looking like the same setup during TS Alberto in 94 huh? Came ashore in Destin and stalled in Georgia dumping 27 inches rain over two days.

[smw1981]

You know, I"ve been wondering the past few model runs. ON the graphics, when it shows landfall (the 2nd landfall on norther gulf coast) the center of the storm seems to be so wide on the graphics, that it covers a large amount of real estate. Does that mean its possible that the center or cdo or wall of convection..is so wide that it would result in the graphics depicting it that way? How can you tell where it makes landfall...when the center stretches from mobile bay...to Destin Fla as depicted in one of those graphics resolution?

It's neigh impossible with the resolutions the global models run at. You would have to look for HWRF high-res for something that might resolve the center and get you a 20 mile point. Basically that last isobar can be interpreted as a cone where, anywhere in that area the center might be for the run. It's like trying to figure out which of the 'holes' of a spinning golf ball will impact the ground at a certain time. With enough mathematics you can make a guess. Good luck getting it right. Luckily hurricane centers are far bigger than a groove on a golf ball.

Great answer to a fairly ridiculous question. Thanks Sapphire

I don't think that was a ridiculous question at all SunnyThoughts! Thank you for asking it!

[meriland23]

wut up guys? miss me ? LOL jokes. So saw the new gfs run, touch east? looks a little slower and cuba a little more in play than last run?

[deltadog03]

DeltaDog3, looking like the same setup during TS Alberto in 94 huh? Came ashore in Destin and stalled in Georgia dumping 27 inches rain over two days.

I sure hope not....but, there will be some VERY high rain amounts....