ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This may very well become a Category 2 hurricane tonight and a Category 3 tomorrow morning. Look for a shift northward in the track in the short term.

[vbhoutex]

Folks, please read.

As we get busier we need to stop the posting of one liners that add no value to the thread. Moderators will be deleting these types of messages without warning.

And if we continue to have to delete one liners such as this for the same posters suspensions will also be handed out without warning. We never want to discourage discussion, but please make sure your posts are of substance and add to the discussion as opposed to being "chat". Storm2k has and active chat for that. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Looking impressive...eye might pop out in a couple of hours...but really wondering whether the NHC will want to upgrade to a hurricane or not. He's looking really good, but will recon support Ernesto being a hurricane? Feedback would be appreciated.

[GCANE]

Click on HDW-H. Perfect UL outflow in all quads.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[AJC3]

[JamesCaneTracker]

Looking impressive...eye might pop out in a couple of hours...but really wondering whether the NHC will want to upgrade to a hurricane or not. He's looking really good, but will recon support Ernesto being a hurricane? Feedback would be appreciated.

Recon data from the weakest part (Northwest quad) already suggests that Ernesto is just below Hurricane Strength... Once we get the data in from the strongest part of the Storm (NorthEast Quad) it should indicate that Ernesto is above Hurricane Strength!

[RL3AO]

Looking impressive...eye might pop out in a couple of hours...but really wondering whether the NHC will want to upgrade to a hurricane or not. He's looking really good, but will recon support Ernesto being a hurricane? Feedback would be appreciated.

Recon data from the weakest part (Northwest quad) already suggests that Ernesto is just below Hurricane Strength... Once we get the data in from the strongest part of the Storm (NorthEast Quad) it should indicate that Ernesto is above Hurricane Strength!

The right front quadrant is the strongest quadrant. Since Ernesto is moving west, the NW quad is actually the strongest part of the storm.

[CrazyC83]

Looking impressive...eye might pop out in a couple of hours...but really wondering whether the NHC will want to upgrade to a hurricane or not. He's looking really good, but will recon support Ernesto being a hurricane? Feedback would be appreciated.

Recon data from the weakest part (Northwest quad) already suggests that Ernesto is just below Hurricane Strength... Once we get the data in from the strongest part of the Storm (NorthEast Quad) it should indicate that Ernesto is above Hurricane Strength!

Actually, the NW quadrant should be the strongest. If the storm is moving west (like Ernesto), the NW quad is the right-front quadrant. If the NE quad is stronger, that would suggest even more rapid intensification.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061420
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120806
141200 1549N 08131W 8430 01566 0094 +166 +158 062019 020 016 002 00
141230 1549N 08130W 8432 01564 0091 +170 +157 057018 019 016 002 00
141300 1549N 08128W 8431 01563 0092 +168 +156 058018 019 016 001 00
141330 1549N 08126W 8433 01562 0099 +158 +156 061017 018 017 002 00
141400 1549N 08125W 8429 01566 0101 +155 +155 064016 017 018 002 00
141430 1550N 08123W 8432 01562 0098 +156 +153 058016 016 014 002 00
141500 1550N 08122W 8428 01566 0096 +160 +151 053015 016 007 001 00
141530 1550N 08120W 8429 01564 0095 +160 +149 057015 016 006 001 00
141600 1550N 08118W 8429 01563 0094 +164 +148 053016 017 008 002 00
141630 1550N 08117W 8429 01564 0093 +165 +148 058016 016 008 001 00
141700 1550N 08115W 8433 01558 0089 +169 +147 055016 017 005 002 00
141730 1550N 08114W 8429 01561 0085 +171 +147 054015 016 004 001 00
141800 1550N 08112W 8429 01561 0083 +170 +147 059013 014 009 002 00
141830 1550N 08110W 8430 01557 0086 +167 +148 066015 015 006 002 00
141900 1550N 08109W 8430 01557 0089 +160 +148 066014 015 007 002 00
141930 1550N 08107W 8429 01556 0085 +162 +147 059014 015 009 002 00
142000 1550N 08106W 8432 01552 0084 +165 +146 051016 016 009 002 00
142030 1550N 08104W 8431 01552 0083 +165 +145 057018 019 010 003 00
142100 1550N 08103W 8426 01556 0080 +168 +145 054017 019 011 002 00
142130 1550N 08101W 8433 01550 0078 +171 +145 057018 019 010 003 00
$$
;

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Looking impressive...eye might pop out in a couple of hours...but really wondering whether the NHC will want to upgrade to a hurricane or not. He's looking really good, but will recon support Ernesto being a hurricane? Feedback would be appreciated.

Recon data from the weakest part (Northwest quad) already suggests that Ernesto is just below Hurricane Strength... Once we get the data in from the strongest part of the Storm (NorthEast Quad) it should indicate that Ernesto is above Hurricane Strength!

Is this data coming in from the next pass? Because I thought I saw that in the recon forum... Hopefully this will make landfall in a lightly populated area..because nobody was expecting this.

[Sanibel]

I think the CDO movement is an illusion and the center is along NHC track but a notch N above it.

[AJC3]

I think the CDO movement is an illusion and the center is along NHC track but a notch N above it.

Next few center fixes will give a better indication as to whether the last NW movement was actually a jog or a more significant move in that direction. Judging from the NE winds on its current run, I'd say it was probably a jog and the center will be more west of the last fix than NW.

[drezee]

Recon decided to not do a full W pass. They took another left and are heading in to the center from due west. The NHC must want that data point before the 15z update. We will likely know the new pressure in 20 mins!

[RL3AO]

Recon decided to not do a full W pass. They took another left and are heading in to the center from due west. The NHC must want that data point before the 15z update. We will likely know the new pressure in 20 mins!

Its pretty standard to try to time a center pass to be as close to advisory time as possible.

[crimi481]

Thats pretty good wobble to NW - based on NHC forecast point
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

[AJC3]

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Recon decided to not do a full W pass. They took another left and are heading in to the center from due west. The NHC must want that data point before the 15z update. We will likely know the new pressure in 20 mins!

Its pretty standard to try to time a center pass to be as close to advisory time as possible.

Nhc probably going to issue the advisory later than earlier...for the most information possible. If I correct, but I'm only an amateur.

[AJC3]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061430
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 35 20120806
142200 1550N 08059W 8428 01553 0076 +170 +145 054017 019 015 002 00
142230 1550N 08058W 8430 01550 0072 +174 +145 053020 022 018 003 00
142300 1550N 08056W 8429 01550 0071 +176 +146 052022 023 022 001 00
142330 1550N 08055W 8429 01549 0068 +180 +147 051025 025 025 002 00
142400 1550N 08053W 8433 01547 0075 +169 +148 054022 025 025 002 00
142430 1551N 08052W 8429 01556 0082 +165 +149 056022 023 021 004 00
142500 1551N 08050W 8432 01552 0084 +161 +149 051023 023 022 003 00
142530 1551N 08049W 8429 01553 0082 +164 +148 048023 025 022 003 00
142600 1551N 08047W 8429 01552 0080 +161 +147 050024 026 024 006 00
142630 1551N 08046W 8437 01541 0080 +160 +146 052024 026 023 006 00
142700 1551N 08044W 8435 01539 0073 +163 +145 038019 022 032 003 00
142730 1551N 08042W 8423 01549 0066 +170 +144 021019 023 037 004 00
142800 1552N 08041W 8425 01546 0060 +179 +144 032020 022 040 003 00
142830 1552N 08039W 8437 01528 0050 +184 +145 037029 032 043 002 00
142900 1552N 08038W 8429 01532 0038 +192 +147 034034 036 044 003 00
142930 1552N 08036W 8436 01517 0031 +193 +149 027034 036 047 002 00
143000 1552N 08035W 8421 01529 0031 +184 +152 038042 047 049 003 00
143030 1552N 08033W 8421 01518 0016 +189 +155 032046 047 055 007 00
143100 1552N 08032W 8433 01495 0000 +196 +156 029046 051 061 012 00
143130 1552N 08030W 8429 01487 9986 +195 +157 034041 044 067 014 00
$$

[crimi481]

Thats pretty good wobble to NW - based on NHC forecast point
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

Sorry - NNW jog

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Whoa...did recon did find 67kt winds...hurricane? I am confused. Sorry, not sure if this is bad cause it's kinda short.