ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251323
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 17 20120625
131600 2803N 08257W 8459 01496 0048 +169 +167 210044 044 034 001 00
131630 2802N 08256W 8463 01495 0049 +169 +166 209041 042 033 000 00
131700 2800N 08255W 8455 01504 0051 +170 +165 206040 040 033 000 00
131730 2759N 08255W 8467 01493 0052 +175 +133 204040 041 033 001 00
131800 2758N 08255W 8459 01502 0055 +174 +132 205041 041 033 001 00
131830 2756N 08254W 8465 01496 0057 +169 +144 207040 041 033 000 00
131900 2755N 08254W 8465 01500 0060 +169 +135 205041 041 032 000 03
131930 2754N 08253W 8455 01510 0061 +171 +124 206041 041 032 000 03
132000 2752N 08253W 8464 01500 0059 +171 +130 206041 042 031 001 00
132030 2751N 08252W 8466 01500 0059 +170 +136 205042 042 030 000 00
132100 2750N 08252W 8463 01505 0064 +170 +135 206041 041 030 001 00
132130 2748N 08251W 8463 01503 0064 +170 +130 205042 042 030 000 03
132200 2747N 08251W 8461 01507 0065 +170 +133 205041 042 031 001 03
132230 2746N 08250W 8463 01505 0064 +170 +134 204041 041 031 000 00
132300 2744N 08250W 8455 01513 0063 +171 +134 205041 042 031 001 00
132330 2743N 08249W 8463 01503 0062 +171 +136 205040 041 032 000 00
132400 2742N 08249W 8464 01506 0064 +172 +135 207040 040 031 000 00
132430 2740N 08248W 8457 01511 0061 +173 +133 207039 039 033 000 00
132500 2739N 08248W 8466 01495 0051 +175 +131 207039 039 034 000 00
132530 2738N 08247W 8461 01499 0041 +177 +119 208038 039 034 000 03
$$
;

[Terry]

Core temp profile shows an inversion of 3C at 2km.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 8_TANO.GIF

Will watch if that erodes away today.

If it does, it will be like a midwest thunderstorm when the convective cap dissipates, convection could be explosive.

Can you explain what that means?

[GCANE]

GCANE, once again your input has been invaluable. I can't imagine this forum without you.

Anyways, recon finding plenty of readings in the high 40s and low 50s (kts) at flight level, enough to support at least 45mph winds. Debby is still a solid Tropical Storm with a sizable windfield, despite attempts by many to will her to death.

Much thanks Jeremy!!

[crimi481]

Bradenton to Naples coastal zones is in for real rough conditions today. (then Inland later)
Tampa later - as southern quad of center is firing up nicely

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[dexterlabio]

my bad. i just realized that while Debby is staying weak in GOM, after it crosses FL and emerges on the other side, there will be a new story. not totally a bust yet. I just looked at the Euro solution and it is certainly no good for Florida if it pans out. hoping for your safety from here......

[tolakram]

Honestly, it appears the circulation is becoming oblong ... perhaps yet another reformation? I can't forget how the GFS kept spawning another storm east of Florida, and reformations have been the one constant thing with this storm.

[GCANE]

Core temp profile shows an inversion of 3C at 2km.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 8_TANO.GIF

Will watch if that erodes away today.

If it does, it will be like a midwest thunderstorm when the convective cap dissipates, convection could be explosive.

Can you explain what that means?

The 3C temp at 2K ft is holding back the air at the sea surface from rising and condensing at the mid troposphere.

If that 3C bubble disappears, then air will quickly rise and develop explosive thunderstorms.

Its close to the same effect in spring in the mid US when afternoon thunderstorms develop.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GCANE, once again your input has been invaluable. I can't imagine this forum without you.

Anyways, recon finding plenty of readings in the high 40s and low 50s (kts) at flight level, enough to support at least 45mph winds. Debby is still a solid Tropical Storm with a sizable windfield, despite attempts by many to will her to death.

No modeling says shes going to meet her end except the Nocraps...In fact all make here a pretty good storm on the flip side of FL...I would suspect the east side of FL will see a ton more rain when that happens..especially with training cells from her inflow...the GFS shows this in the timeframe MESO posted earlier...With that said I wouldnt expect any wind issues for FL in respect to the core of Debby...

Disclaimer...complete ametur opinion here...

[TheBurn]

I think she will reanimate as a zombie storm.

Well played...


WV_Enhanced




12:45 UTC Funktop

[artist]

well, bust in a way that it was highly anticipated by many to become the 2nd hurricane of the season, and also bust in a way that TX expected a drought-buster out of this but ended up moving northeast.

I thought Florida can think of Debby's rains as beneficial? Was the rain for the past 2 days already that bad?

[blazess556]

Looking like Debby may be downgraded to a tropical depression as it crosses Florida. However, once Debby reemerges in the Atlantic, it definitely has a chance to restrengthen and may approach hurricane status.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251333
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 18 20120625
132600 2736N 08246W 8463 01502 0057 +176 +121 210038 038 038 005 00
132630 2735N 08246W 8463 01507 0061 +176 +125 211038 038 051 000 03
132700 2734N 08245W 8459 01511 0063 +177 +120 209039 039 038 002 00
132730 2732N 08245W 8459 01510 0063 +176 +119 211038 039 043 001 03
132800 2731N 08244W 8463 01513 0069 +175 +123 211038 039 038 000 03
132830 2730N 08244W 8457 01518 0072 +172 +146 214037 040 034 000 00
132900 2728N 08243W 8463 01516 0074 +167 +164 213039 040 034 002 03
132930 2727N 08243W 8458 01519 0074 +167 +164 214039 039 034 001 03
133000 2725N 08242W 8459 01519 0073 +169 +162 212038 040 034 000 03
133030 2724N 08243W 8457 01523 0075 +166 +161 215038 040 033 000 03
133100 2723N 08244W 8463 01514 0075 +166 +162 214039 040 035 000 00
133130 2722N 08244W 8463 01514 0073 +170 +159 211040 041 035 000 00
133200 2721N 08245W 8463 01514 0072 +170 +161 211042 042 034 001 00
133230 2720N 08246W 8462 01514 0072 +168 +161 211041 041 034 001 00
133300 2719N 08247W 8462 01513 0072 +169 +160 209039 040 034 001 00
133330 2717N 08247W 8461 01517 0071 +171 +156 209038 038 035 001 00
133400 2716N 08248W 8455 01522 0071 +170 +156 208038 038 034 000 00
133430 2715N 08249W 8467 01508 0072 +168 +163 209038 038 036 000 03
133500 2714N 08250W 8456 01523 0074 +166 +165 210039 039 036 000 03
133530 2712N 08250W 8460 01516 0072 +166 +165 210039 040 037 001 00
$$
;

[sittingduck]

All right - tried of rain and wind. Calm right now but have had periodic strong (but short lived) squalls all night and morning. Haven't seen the sun since Wednesday

[Evil Jeremy]

[Hurricane Andrew]

I can take HDOBS.

[Evil Jeremy]

Please do, I have to go very soon, thanks!

Here's my last one:

000
URNT15 KNHC 251343
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 19 20120625
133600 2711N 08250W 8465 01512 0074 +169 +159 213040 040 038 001 00
133630 2710N 08250W 8460 01517 0073 +167 +161 210040 041 035 001 03
133700 2709N 08249W 8467 01514 0076 +167 +160 211044 045 036 000 03
133730 2708N 08248W 8457 01524 0078 +165 +163 211046 047 037 000 00
133800 2707N 08246W 8465 01516 0077 +165 +162 208049 050 035 003 00
133830 2706N 08245W 8455 01527 0080 +164 //// 206048 050 036 003 01
133900 2705N 08243W 8463 01517 0083 +160 //// 208045 046 036 005 01
133930 2704N 08242W 8463 01520 0086 +154 //// 208047 047 038 006 01
134000 2703N 08241W 8456 01527 //// +145 //// 205042 044 041 014 01
134030 2702N 08239W 8466 01514 //// +140 //// 200042 044 042 013 01
134100 2701N 08238W 8461 01524 //// +143 //// 198041 041 040 010 01
134130 2700N 08237W 8458 01525 //// +145 //// 204044 047 037 007 01
134200 2659N 08236W 8460 01524 //// +153 //// 209047 048 036 006 01
134230 2658N 08234W 8461 01524 0087 +158 //// 210049 049 037 005 01
134300 2657N 08233W 8462 01524 0088 +159 //// 210048 049 036 003 05
134330 2656N 08232W 8455 01533 0090 +158 //// 211048 049 037 001 01
134400 2655N 08231W 8466 01522 //// +156 //// 212049 050 035 002 01
134430 2654N 08231W 8464 01525 0092 +160 //// 213051 052 036 000 01
134500 2652N 08230W 8456 01534 0091 +162 //// 212050 050 035 001 05
134530 2651N 08230W 8460 01528 0089 +162 //// 211050 050 036 000 01
$$
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251353
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 20 20120625
134600 2650N 08229W 8465 01525 0090 +161 //// 213050 050 036 000 01
134630 2648N 08229W 8459 01531 0089 +163 //// 213050 051 037 001 01
134700 2647N 08228W 8459 01530 0090 +162 //// 212049 049 037 001 05
134730 2646N 08228W 8466 01524 0093 +162 //// 210048 050 037 000 05
134800 2644N 08227W 8459 01533 0091 +165 +163 211049 050 036 001 03
134830 2643N 08227W 8462 01529 0090 +167 +163 211048 048 037 000 03
134900 2642N 08226W 8459 01533 0089 +168 +164 211048 048 036 001 03
134930 2641N 08226W 8462 01529 0090 +169 +158 213048 049 039 001 03
135000 2639N 08225W 8461 01531 0091 +170 +158 213049 049 038 001 03
135030 2638N 08225W 8459 01534 0091 +166 +161 212048 049 038 001 00
135100 2637N 08224W 8461 01533 0093 +166 +158 211048 048 037 000 00
135130 2635N 08224W 8462 01530 0092 +170 +150 209049 049 036 000 00
135200 2634N 08223W 8461 01533 0090 +170 +148 209048 049 035 001 00
135230 2633N 08223W 8463 01529 0090 +172 +144 209049 050 035 000 00
135300 2632N 08222W 8463 01530 0092 +170 +145 208051 051 033 002 00
135330 2630N 08222W 8461 01531 0090 +172 +140 208051 052 035 000 00
135400 2629N 08221W 8462 01531 0090 +174 +142 208054 055 036 000 00
135430 2628N 08221W 8459 01535 0092 +172 +141 207056 057 036 001 00
135500 2627N 08221W 8460 01535 0095 +170 +142 208056 056 036 001 00
135530 2625N 08220W 8461 01534 0096 +169 +142 207057 057 035 001 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

Looking like Debby may be downgraded to a tropical depression as it crosses Florida. However, once Debby reemerges in the Atlantic, it definitely has a chance to restrengthen and may approach hurricane status.

Agree that it should be downgraded, don't agree that it will likely survive to regenerate east of Florida.

[lilybeth]

Wow, those pictures tell a strong tale of Debby's impact. She may be ugly on the radar but her impact is real. Those in Florida (and anywhere else she's impacting), please stay safe.

[Evil Jeremy]

The last observations in the latest recon set were interesting:

135400 2629N 08221W 8462 01531 0090 +174 +142 208054 055 036 000 00
135430 2628N 08221W 8459 01535 0092 +172 +141 207056 057 036 001 00
135500 2627N 08221W 8460 01535 0095 +170 +142 208056 056 036 001 00
135530 2625N 08220W 8461 01534 0096 +169 +142 207057 057 035 001 00
$$

That's enough to support the current 50mph, and readings could be stronger in the next data set.