ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[drezee]

You should always refer to them as left front, right front, left rear and right rear. Then you wouldn't get into this confusion. The right front quadrant is always the strongest in a non-stationary TC. See how easy?

That is making the assumption that the convection supports those winds in that quad. In 1994, Erin's strongest winds were found in the SE quad for a full day while if was tracking W to WNW.

['CaneFreak]

It looks like they may have missed the center yet again...the core is so small...

[Texashawk]

If this is the closest center reading...

160030 1601N 08041W 8439 01471 9970 +215 +155 291012 014 012 002 00

...then this thing is really starting to move NW.

[TexasF6]

He looks to be stair stepping to the NW...IMHO...now the question remains, is this just a wobble? or a tug of other elements missed by the model guidance? Thoughts?



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nimbus]

Once we have a 6 to 12 hour motion in the models and the correct intensity initialized at that time they should produce some more accurate tracks.

No need for the NHC to be flipping forecasts back and forth from one extreme to the other when you have a fair amount of time before landfall..

Back when Ernesto was passing through Barbados I was using Cozumel as my benchmark, expecting a Hurricane approach traveling at 290. The slowdown came 12 hours late and about 2 degrees south.

[brunota2003]

Only 12 knots of wind...that's a pretty good center penetration. They were saying the eye is elliptical, so to try to figure out where the center is in that mess I'm sure is quite difficult.

[Texashawk]

This was the lowest pressure reading in the last pass, which is pretty close to the center:

160030 1601N 08041W 8439 01471 9970 +215 +155 291012 014 012 002 00

If close, this would continue to verify a significant NW trend.

[ozonepete]

[

That is making the assumption that the convection supports those winds in that quad. In 1994 Erins strongest winds were found in the SE quad for a full day while if was tracking W to WNW.

You are correct. I should have said the strongest winds are usually in the right front quadrant for non-stationary tropical cyclones. There are exceptions, especially in weak or disorganized systems.

[RL3AO]

[tolakram]

Latest. !

[ozonepete]

Wow. Looks like an eye will come out soon. This thing must still be on a really strong ramp-up.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061610
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 45 20120806
160200 1558N 08045W 8450 01482 0004 +196 +171 288030 031 033 004 00
160230 1557N 08046W 8416 01524 0016 +188 +173 293029 030 035 002 00
160300 1556N 08047W 8432 01516 0032 +178 +174 296026 027 034 004 00
160330 1555N 08048W 8431 01524 0043 +170 +170 299026 028 026 002 01
160400 1554N 08049W 8432 01529 0053 +160 +160 298020 024 026 002 01
160430 1553N 08051W 8429 01536 0060 +160 +160 306021 022 024 001 01
160500 1552N 08052W 8426 01543 0062 +166 +165 307020 021 023 001 00
160530 1551N 08053W 8428 01543 0062 +171 +163 311021 022 021 002 00
160600 1549N 08054W 8434 01540 0064 +174 +161 315021 021 019 001 00
160630 1548N 08055W 8430 01546 0067 +174 +160 316021 022 019 001 00
160700 1547N 08056W 8430 01549 0070 +174 +160 328024 025 017 001 00
160730 1546N 08058W 8433 01547 0072 +173 +160 336025 027 019 002 00
160800 1545N 08059W 8430 01553 0074 +176 +160 341023 024 020 001 00
160830 1543N 08100W 8431 01555 0075 +178 +159 338019 023 016 003 00
160900 1543N 08100W 8431 01555 0078 +175 +159 320015 019 017 002 00
160930 1541N 08103W 8429 01560 0084 +170 +159 321013 014 017 003 00
161000 1540N 08104W 8433 01558 0089 +165 +159 325012 013 019 002 00
161030 1538N 08105W 8430 01562 0093 +160 +158 327011 012 018 004 00
161100 1537N 08106W 8430 01562 0093 +160 +156 313011 011 017 003 00
161130 1536N 08107W 8429 01564 0094 +163 +155 300011 012 017 002 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

1st center fix to 4th center fix

305 degrees (NW) moving 49nmi in 3hr 47min (3.78hr) for a speed of 13kt.

['CaneFreak]

Probably just a wobble. Intensifying TCs tend to wobble...looks like it is starting to ingest some more dry air now though...starting to question whether this thing rapidly intensifies tonight. I think it will intensify to a hurricane but not sure it will make it much past the 90 mph that was mentioned in the advisory. Excellent forecast Mr. Pasch given the mid level dry air.

He looks to be stair stepping to the NW...IMHO...now the question remains, is this just a wobble? or a tug of other elements missed by the model guidance? Thoughts?



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MGC]

Lets see....NW Caribbean, little windshear, very warm SST, cyclone moving at 9mph........perfect ingredients for a hurricane! Ernesto has certainly been a pill to predict intensity wise.....I think that shroud is about to be pulled off...MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow....any vets still awake? I don't have a solid visible to confirm but i'm wondering if Ernie is trying to pull the LLC East under the convection?

I'm sorry everyone I just had to re-post this and brag one more time on my excellent call



As for the storm, throw out all forecast ideas. Ernie now will control his own fate, throw out the models too. Ernie could bomb out to a cat 3/4 and stairstep NW/NNW right up to the Eastern tip of the Yucatan i've seen it happen before.

Edit: That's no wobble folks, he's moving NW now, and as he gets stronger and stronger, he will stairstep more and more northerly. Bombs away.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Latest Loop

[Stormlover2012]

The movement is nw now?

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm just throwing this out there. I don't see any signs of an RI cycle starting up...yet. Granted, I haven't been around all morning to watch and such, and only have a few minutes to glance at everything. I think all in all, Ernesto will reach the 65 to 70 knot range by between 11 pm and 5 am tomorrow morning. This may need adjusting later, but intensifying on the order of 20 to 25 knots (in a 24 hour period) seems pretty good, given the fact he finally slowed down (and now has a LLC!). 5 am this morning the intensity was 45 knots (per advisory, that is my "starting" intensity...do note, I believe he was probably closer to 50 knots then, however).

As far as my indicator goes...there was a large gap between microwave images this morning, so it is possible that it popped up during that timeframe...and it is possible it could pop up later.

[Ivanhater]

Movement looks NW