ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rainstorm]

i agree with JB about the SW atlantic. withtis patern i would suspect a storm to be in the vicinity in a week or so.

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html


turn baby turn.. ..almost at the same lon as Kirk...

[floridasun78]

LESLIE turning?

[ROCK]

no I was saying in jest....that loop gives a good perspective to how close it is to the islands....

[floridasun78]

no I was saying in jest....that loop gives a good perspective to how close it is to the islands....

ok good night to all

[fci]

JB tweetfest brought to you by me.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

US models notorious for early recurves. My take is Leslie is likely to fight her way through at least 1st trough. recurve more likely70-80w
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19m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

GFS notorious for dropping troughs into cyclones in central atlantic. Leslie could bust this.. If not sw atlantic ripe on its own
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20m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Pattern does not mean a Leslie recurve at 60 definite. Major troughs in center of US as per ECMWF invite trouble near east coast.
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Big difference between 70w and 80w and the idea that Leslie turns at about 60w.
I don't like the whole SW Atlantic stuff.
Good news is that JB has been calling for an East Coast threat on most systems this season
Bad news is that it hasn't happened yet and he might be right just once.
I don't care for him to be right this time.........

['CaneFreak]

It is making the turn...currently moving about 285 or so...center will likely be placed at 15.0 and 49.0 W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

['CaneFreak]

Location: 15.2°N 47.8°W
Movement: 285 degrees @ 16 mph

[KWT]

Good call Canefreak!

Not looking as good at the moment, it just spat out as huge outflow boundary and its starting to get a slightly ragged look.

MLC is to the SW of the LLC btw, they aren't stacked...remember what happened with Issac when that happened to it...

[Hurricane Alexis]

JB tweetfest brought to you by me.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

US models notorious for early recurves. My take is Leslie is likely to fight her way through at least 1st trough. recurve more likely70-80w
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19m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

GFS notorious for dropping troughs into cyclones in central atlantic. Leslie could bust this.. If not sw atlantic ripe on its own
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20m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Pattern does not mean a Leslie recurve at 60 definite. Major troughs in center of US as per ECMWF invite trouble near east coast.
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Big difference between 70w and 80w and the idea that Leslie turns at about 60w.
I don't like the whole SW Atlantic stuff.
Good news is that JB has been calling for an East Coast threat on most systems this season
Bad news is that it hasn't happened yet and he might be right just once.
I don't care for him to be right this time.........

A recurve around 80w will put florida in play.

[superstareporter]

JB tweetfest brought to you by me.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

US models notorious for early recurves. My take is Leslie is likely to fight her way through at least 1st trough. recurve more likely70-80w
Expand

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19m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

GFS notorious for dropping troughs into cyclones in central atlantic. Leslie could bust this.. If not sw atlantic ripe on its own
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20m Joe Bastardi Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Pattern does not mean a Leslie recurve at 60 definite. Major troughs in center of US as per ECMWF invite trouble near east coast.
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Big difference between 70w and 80w and the idea that Leslie turns at about 60w.
I don't like the whole SW Atlantic stuff.
Good news is that JB has been calling for an East Coast threat on most systems this season
Bad news is that it hasn't happened yet and he might be right just once.
I don't care for him to be right this time.........

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesnt he ALWAYS predict an East Coast Catastrophe every year, if not every storm? He seems like a New Yorker or New Jersey guy, am I correct?

[rainstorm]

it looks like its decoupling. could mean a futher west track.

[Gustywind]

Ouragans, surely good news for much of the Leewardians especially in terms of track


000
WTNT32 KNHC 310848
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS MORE...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 47.8W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[Gustywind]

Anyway, we must have to monitor it in case of and as indirect effects could occur... swells, possible outer bands (if any).

[Portastorm]

OK look ... I know I'm only on my first cup o' joe this morning but it sure looks to me like Leslie is well south of its forecast points. Anyone else seeing this?

[rainstorm]

it probably is because its decoupling.

[wxman57]

Big difference between 70w and 80w and the idea that Leslie turns at about 60w.
I don't like the whole SW Atlantic stuff.
Good news is that JB has been calling for an East Coast threat on most systems this season
Bad news is that it hasn't happened yet and he might be right just once.
I don't care for him to be right this time.........

A recurve around 80w will put florida in play.

Note that I don't think JB is saying it will track through the Caribbean then recurve, but that it may track as forecast north of the Caribbean past Bermuda then recurve closer to the east U.S. coast north of Florida. Possibly a threat to the NE U.S. in that case. GFS and Euro suggest this. But that's 9-10 days from now and a lot can happen between now and then.

[Portastorm]

it probably is because its decoupling.

Ok ... yeah ... it does look like one vort is on the forecast points while the center of the rotation (or another vort) is southwest of the points. Thanks.

[rainstorm]

if it stays weak then i would expect the models to shift a bit more SW.

[wxman57]

if it stays weak then i would expect the models to shift a bit more SW.

If you look at the shallow BAM (BAMS), you see that it's indicating a weaker system may track farther north - turning sooner than a stronger one. So just because it's weaker doesn't mean the risk to the Caribbean is greater. It may indicate a lesser chance of being picked up by the first trof SE of Bermuda, as the GFS/Euro now agree on.