ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Blinhart]

So no on has mentioned that the NAM actually forecasted more of NW movement then once it got into the BoC it turns more NNW. Is anyone thinking that the NAM might be correct?

[Blinhart]

Looking at the Water Vapor loop, looks like there really isn't much dry air left out there in the Caribbean, so is there a possibility that this is just a slow time in the intensification of Ernie, or has he leveled off for now?

[Dave]

This evenings mission...takeoff around 4:30 pm edt. I should be on for at least the first part.

A. 07/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0905A ERNESTO
C. 06/2015Z
D. 16.0N 83.2W
E. 07/2330Z TO 07/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[artist]

This evenings mission...takeoff around 4:30 pm edt. I should be on for at least the first part.

A. 07/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0905A ERNESTO
C. 06/2015Z
D. 16.0N 83.2W
E. 07/2330Z TO 07/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

if things don't change, I should be able to help.

[drezee]

This is likely the last pass for recon until this evening. We will see if it has started deepening again. Also, RAMSDIS finally woke up!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[jonj2040]

[tolakram]

Latest

[Zanthe]

Looks really good for possibly being an open wave no more then 24 hours ago.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061710
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 51 20120806
170200 1604N 08048W 8433 01519 0047 +163 +137 214035 037 039 003 00
170230 1605N 08050W 8427 01518 0033 +173 +140 220036 037 039 002 00
170300 1606N 08051W 8434 01507 0026 +176 +144 226036 039 039 001 00
170330 1607N 08052W 8429 01501 0017 +174 +148 231037 039 038 002 00
170400 1608N 08053W 8435 01490 0004 +183 +152 238037 040 038 001 00
170430 1609N 08054W 8422 01493 9986 +194 +156 240028 037 034 002 00
170500 1611N 08055W 8433 01474 9972 +202 +160 247013 020 030 001 00
170530 1612N 08056W 8437 01467 9966 +209 +165 059004 010 018 001 00
170600 1613N 08057W 8425 01482 9968 +208 +170 067018 024 025 001 03
170630 1614N 08059W 8434 01478 9974 +207 +175 070036 039 042 001 00
170700 1616N 08100W 8424 01499 9977 +218 +178 066039 042 054 000 00
170730 1617N 08102W 8428 01502 9995 +208 +182 066041 042 052 002 00
170800 1617N 08102W 8428 01502 0014 +189 +185 073038 040 047 003 00
170830 1619N 08104W 8429 01516 0030 +180 +180 080044 046 047 003 01
170900 1620N 08105W 8438 01516 0043 +170 +170 077046 047 045 001 01
170930 1622N 08107W 8425 01532 0047 +170 +170 079043 048 044 001 01
171000 1623N 08108W 8432 01528 0056 +170 +170 079047 048 043 004 01
171030 1624N 08109W 8435 01535 0065 +160 +160 078046 048 044 001 01
171100 1626N 08111W 8426 01544 0062 +171 +170 077041 043 044 001 00
171130 1627N 08112W 8432 01541 0068 +168 +166 077040 041 042 001 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

[Dave]

Recon's coming in for a 5th pass now.

[Dave]

Vince & Jon, here's hdobs 50 from the archive....just to get it onboard here incase someone wanted it. Please continue.

Code: Select all

000
URNT15 KNHC 061700
AF302 0805A ERNESTO            HDOB 50 20120806
165200 1539N 08022W 8433 01561 0095 +163 +143 185030 030 027 002 00
165230 1541N 08023W 8428 01567 0096 +161 +145 184030 030 026 005 00
165300 1542N 08025W 8433 01561 0094 +165 +145 185030 031 027 004 00
165330 1543N 08026W 8429 26600 9959 +167 +145 184030 031 028 003 20
165400 1545N 08027W 8430 26470 //// +165 +145 186026 029 027 005 20
165430 1546N 08029W 8430 37469 //// +166 +145 187025 026 029 005 20
165500 1547N 08030W 8430 38687 //// +165 +145 190024 025 031 004 20
165530 1548N 08031W 8430 38857 //// +169 +144 189024 025 031 005 20
165600 1550N 08032W 8432 14274 //// +171 +143 188026 026 032 006 00
165630 1551N 08034W 8430 13879 //// +171 +142 193027 027 032 005 00
165700 1552N 08035W 8428 06249 //// +169 +142 193027 028 033 005 00
165730 1553N 08036W 8433 01883 0356 +165 +142 194029 030 034 006 00
165800 1555N 08038W 8430 01625 0171 +164 +141 197032 032 033 007 00
165830 1556N 08039W 8428 01570 0102 +161 +140 197031 032 034 007 00
165900 1557N 08040W 8428 01556 0088 +157 +139 194030 032 035 008 00
165930 1558N 08041W 8424 01551 0079 +158 +137 196030 031 036 007 00
170000 1600N 08043W 8436 01534 0076 +150 +136 201032 033 035 008 00
170030 1601N 08044W 8431 01533 0064 +159 +134 202034 034 036 004 00
170100 1602N 08045W 8425 01535 0060 +158 +134 200034 035 036 002 00
170130 1603N 08047W 8431 01524 0053 +162 +135 207034 035 036 002 00
$$
;




[Ivanhater]

Center up to about 16.2N now...big gain in latitude today

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061720
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 52 20120806
171200 1628N 08113W 8429 01549 0074 +165 +163 076041 041 042 000 00
171230 1630N 08115W 8428 01552 0075 +167 +160 077042 042 040 001 00
171300 1631N 08116W 8432 01551 0076 +170 +158 076039 041 036 000 00
171330 1632N 08117W 8425 01557 0076 +169 +158 075045 048 035 001 00
171400 1633N 08119W 8428 01556 0080 +167 +158 078047 048 038 000 00
171430 1635N 08120W 8431 01554 0085 +161 +159 082049 051 037 001 00
171500 1636N 08122W 8430 01557 0089 +150 +150 085052 052 035 001 01
171530 1637N 08123W 8429 01562 0094 +160 +160 087047 052 032 003 01
171600 1639N 08124W 8427 01568 0098 +150 +150 085044 046 034 003 01
171630 1640N 08126W 8432 01564 0100 +150 +150 080047 047 034 003 01
171700 1641N 08127W 8429 01571 0103 +150 +150 081045 046 034 003 01
171730 1643N 08128W 8429 01568 0101 +159 +158 083045 046 035 003 00
171800 1644N 08130W 8432 01568 0103 +160 +157 083044 045 033 004 00
171830 1645N 08131W 8432 01568 0104 +158 +155 085041 043 032 004 00
171900 1647N 08133W 8430 01571 0105 +158 +153 088040 041 034 002 00
171930 1648N 08134W 8430 01573 0110 +153 +151 088040 041 030 005 00
172000 1649N 08135W 8429 01574 0113 +150 +149 090040 041 032 004 00
172030 1651N 08137W 8431 01571 0113 +150 +146 090040 041 030 004 00
172100 1652N 08138W 8430 01574 0117 +147 +144 090039 040 029 005 00
172130 1653N 08139W 8431 01573 0121 +140 +140 090040 041 029 006 01
$$
;

[FutureEM]

Even Rapid Intensification probably wouldn't propel it North, it's to far West at this point...had it occurred 24 hours sooner then it might. It's kind of like the mens road race in the Olympics, the british bikers were favored to win but they waited to long to sprint to the front...hence they lost. Anyway this is all my opinion, but thats what I'm thinking.

There is no correlation of location and when it would turn. You never will know if something happens in the dynamics that will cause a storm to move all of a sudden North, South or what ever.

However from watching storms for almost all of my 35 years of my life, I have seen when a storm slows down there is a good chance there will be a change in direction if not even a stall while it figures out what happens.

I respectfully disagree, forward speed is very important when it comes to the track of a storm. A system moving at 25mph will pick up the ridge differently then one moving at 10mph. Ernesto was moving in the 20-25mph range up until today, had it moved slower it would interact with the ridge differently then it is now.

[drezee]

Watch this buoy! On the current track it will pass within 70 miles of the center

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[GCANE]

ULL at 24N 72W appears to be strengthening.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Obviously, enhancing poleward outflow channel.

[RL3AO]

UZNT13 KNHC 061721
XXAA 56178 99162 70809 04560 99996 27421 07009 00538 ///// /////
92650 23019 08508 85391 22050 07508 88999 77999
31313 09608 81705
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 23
62626 EYE SPL 1620N08095W 1708 MBL WND 08009 AEV 20802 DLM WND 08
008 995843 WL150 08009 084 REL 1620N08094W 170537 SPG 1620N08094W
170704 =
XXBB 56178 99162 70809 04560 00996 27421 11933 22809 22893 24256
33850 22050
21212 00996 07009 11933 08510 22899 06005 33854 08008 44843 06509
31313 09608 81705
61616 AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 23
62626 EYE SPL 1620N08095W 1708 MBL WND 08009 AEV 20802 DLM WND 08
008 995843 WL150 08009 084 REL 1620N08094W 170537 SPG 1620N08094W
170704 =

996mb/9kt

[jonj2040]

[drezee]

Watch this buoy! On the current track it will pass within 70 miles of the center

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

It gusted to 35kts last hour.