ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061731
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 53 20120806
172200 1655N 08141W 8432 01573 0130 +130 +130 091043 044 033 013 01
172230 1656N 08142W 8432 01572 0133 +120 +120 090045 046 039 017 01
172300 1657N 08144W 8425 01580 0133 +120 +120 086045 046 041 017 01
172330 1659N 08145W 8435 01572 0134 +127 +126 087041 044 042 013 00
172400 1700N 08146W 8426 01583 0134 +133 +124 091029 040 041 012 00
172430 1701N 08148W 8431 01575 0129 +136 +123 093025 027 037 009 00
172500 1702N 08149W 8433 01577 0129 +142 +123 092034 035 034 010 00
172530 1704N 08150W 8436 01572 0122 +149 +124 091035 036 029 007 00
172600 1705N 08152W 8429 01583 0123 +150 +125 089036 036 026 005 00
172630 1706N 08153W 8347 01661 0120 +148 +125 088039 041 030 005 03
172700 1708N 08154W 8065 01955 0119 +132 +124 089040 042 /// /// 03
172730 1709N 08156W 7747 02293 0110 +120 +120 084033 037 /// /// 05
172800 1710N 08157W 7417 02664 0113 +100 +100 073029 031 /// /// 05
172830 1712N 08158W 7119 03008 //// +085 //// 073023 031 /// /// 05
172900 1713N 08200W 6923 03254 //// +075 //// 071021 022 033 006 01
172930 1714N 08201W 6981 03190 //// +075 //// 071021 021 032 005 01
173000 1716N 08203W 6966 03205 0131 +080 +080 074019 020 032 005 01
173030 1717N 08204W 6966 03205 0131 +080 +080 077017 018 032 006 01
173100 1718N 08205W 6967 03205 0130 +080 +080 067019 022 031 006 01
173130 1720N 08207W 6966 03208 0134 +070 +070 071023 023 031 007 01
$$
;

[beoumont]

Quite similar cloud configuration as Camille.

No other similarity is implied, other than shape of cloud system.


..

[jonj2040]

[littlevince]

000
URNT12 KNHC 061736
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/17:05:30Z
B. 16 deg 12 min N
080 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1405 m
D. 39 kt
E. 135 deg 11 nm
F. 200 deg 41 kt
G. 134 deg 60 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 14 C / 1567 m
J. 21 C / 1467 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 22
MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
;

[Dave]

AF 309's enroute to Keesler AFB Biloxi MS now.

[jonj2040]

[BZSTORM]

Ok so I'm still learning this recon stuff but this seems an incredibly long flight as they still appear to be quartering the system I'm assuming possibly wrongly that this is because they now have a fixed center??? So is this normal for this length of flight?

[cycloneye]

This is the plan of the day for Tuesday.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 06 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
       FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 74-          FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 75-
       A. 07/1200, 1800Z             A. 08/0000Z, 0600Z
       B. AFXXX 1005A ERNESTO        B. AFXXX 1105A ERNESTO
       C. 07/0815Z                   C. 07/2015Z
       D. 16.8N 84.0W                D. 17.5N 86.0W
       E. 07/1130Z TO 07/1800Z       E. 07/2330Z TO 08/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
       SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WATER.


[Dave]

Take a break guys & thanks to all who worked this one!

000
URNT15 KNHC 061740
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 54 20120806
173200 1721N 08208W 6967 03207 0132 +070 +070 072023 024 031 006 01
173230 1722N 08210W 6968 03205 0127 +080 +077 073022 023 031 005 00
173300 1724N 08211W 6967 03207 0126 +080 +075 075021 021 030 003 00
173330 1725N 08212W 6967 03207 0127 +080 +075 079020 020 030 004 00
173400 1726N 08214W 6967 03207 0130 +078 +076 083021 021 031 005 00
173430 1728N 08215W 6967 03207 0133 +070 +070 080020 021 032 007 01
173500 1729N 08217W 6943 03232 0129 +070 +070 078021 021 032 007 05
173530 1730N 08218W 6674 03553 0112 +060 +060 074024 026 /// /// 05
173600 1731N 08219W 6391 03911 //// +047 //// 075029 029 /// /// 05
173630 1732N 08221W 6136 04244 //// +030 //// 066027 028 /// /// 05
173700 1733N 08223W 5904 04546 //// +014 //// 064023 026 /// /// 05
173730 1734N 08225W 5693 04838 //// +002 //// 057025 026 /// /// 05
173800 1735N 08226W 5489 05129 0252 -011 //// 044022 025 /// /// 05
173830 1735N 08228W 5336 05359 0268 -023 //// 040024 026 034 003 01
173900 1736N 08230W 5181 05594 0284 -038 //// 042027 028 034 003 01
173930 1737N 08232W 5042 05809 0297 -050 //// 043026 027 032 002 01
174000 1738N 08233W 4897 06037 0312 -058 //// 042021 026 031 001 01
174030 1739N 08235W 4758 06266 0328 -068 //// 046018 019 031 002 01
174100 1740N 08237W 4640 06461 0342 -077 //// 051025 028 033 002 01
174130 1741N 08239W 4531 06645 0358 -088 //// 043027 029 032 004 01
$$
;

Mission is Over...

[Dave]

Next Mission:

A. 07/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0905A ERNESTO
C. 06/2015Z
D. 16.0N 83.2W
E. 07/2330Z TO 07/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Dave]

Cycloneye looks like we're going to start staging out of Keesler AFB soon. May still be one plane left at St Croix VI yet...we'll see where take off this afternoon comes from either way it's going to be a long haul out to the center for a few missions now.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye looks like we're going to start staging out of Keesler AFB soon. May still be one plane left at St Croix VI yet...we'll see where take off this afternoon comes from either way it's going to be a long haul out to the center for a few missions now.

In other words,more work for us as missions will be longer.

[Dave]

Ok so I'm still learning this recon stuff but this seems an incredibly long flight as they still appear to be quartering the system I'm assuming possibly wrongly that this is because they now have a fixed center??? So is this normal for this length of flight?

This is about the normal length of a mission. They are flying long hauls now from St Croix & from what I'm seeing looks like they're starting to transfer planes back to Keesler AFB in MS now. But it'll still be a long haul back out to Ernesto on the next few missions then shorter as they come in closer to base. I've seen run's as short as 35 hdobs and as long as 60.

[Dave]

Cycloneye looks like we're going to start staging out of Keesler AFB soon. May still be one plane left at St Croix VI yet...we'll see where take off this afternoon comes from either way it's going to be a long haul out to the center for a few missions now.

In other words,more work for us as missions will be longer.

Yes time to pack a lunch for the trip out.

[Sanibel]

Is the NW eyewall open or forming a bigger eye?

[Stormlover2012]

Is it still moving nw?

[littlevince]

A summary picture of the last recon flight, showing the sharp move to NW



Last VDM:

000
URNT12 KNHC 061736
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/17:05:30Z
B. 16 deg 12 min N
080 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1405 m
D. 39 kt
E. 135 deg 11 nm
F. 200 deg 41 kt
G. 134 deg 60 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 14 C / 1567 m
J. 21 C / 1467 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 22
MAX FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

Is the NW eyewall open or forming a bigger eye?

Probably open. Its structure isn't flawless, but it does seem to fit on par with high end TS or low end hurricane, so openings here and there probably aren't hugely uncommon. On top of that it does look to have taken in a little bit of dry air so the intensity has probably leveled off temporarily.