ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Rgv20]

The way the GFS has performed with this getting the exact track nearly right from over a week out, the GFS is the new king of the models

On a shorter term, did yesterday's 12z or last night's 0z GFS capture the northwest movement of the storm over the last 6-8 hours?

I dont think so both the ECMWF and GFS almost had it crashing in CA and then the WNW movement should have begun.

12zECMWF did not initialize Ernesto very well...it has it as a broad 1009 mb low..

[hurricanes1234]

And there we go with the same intensity for hours upon hours upon hours, again and again and again..........

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ernesto's eyewall is still in its formative stages. Once it mixes out the dry air (it's in the process of doing that) and strengthens it up a little, I think we'll see some big things happen with the storm. It is moving into perfect conditions after all.

[crimi481]

Hope this Loop link works?
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

Good view of W.V. Shows smewhat of a streaming of Ernies moisture -transferring to S. Fl Straits - and to small Low in Panhandle
Pulling in N. Quad of Ernie. (my take on W.V. Sat Loop)
Seems like very compliated dynamics -all around area. Or - is it simpler than appears.

Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

[tailgater]

Jogging back to the west from the looks of it.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[ROCK]

Hope this Loop link works?
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

Good view of W.V. Shows smewhat of a streaming of Ernies moisture -transferring to S. Fl Straits - and to small Low in Panhandle
Pulling in N. Quad of Ernie. (my take on W.V. Sat Loop)
Seems like very compliated dynamics -all around area. Or - is it simpler than appears.

Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

nice loop....you can see the trof digging in the midwest....hmmmm

[tolakram]

Latest. Odd looking structure, almost looks like the eyewall convection has collapsed.

[wxman57]

With the upper low dipping into the BoC now, Ernesto will probably track more NW for the next 24-36 hours. Beyond then, the low moves out of the picture and the ridge rebuilds a bit across the northern Gulf. That should steer Ernesto westward to southern Mexico for its final landfall. I think it'll probably move inland north of Belize due to the initial NW motion. Intensification appears to have stopped. Maybe no hurricane today.

[tolakram]

And this loops seems to confirm that. Old Ernie just can't be predictable.

[crimi481]

Hope this Loop link works?
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

Good view of W.V. Shows smewhat of a streaming of Ernies moisture -transferring to S. Fl Straits - and to small Low in Panhandle
Pulling in N. Quad of Ernie. (my take on W.V. Sat Loop)
Seems like very compliated dynamics -all around area. Or - is it simpler than appears.

Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

nice loop....you can see the trof digging in the midwest....hmmmm

The Infared -color loop on that site is pretty cool as well
Ernie did jog west again. Memories of Mitch? (lost steering currents) For now -steering currents pretty week.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm not so confident he's weakening though. Appears as if his motion has stabilized. Wxman47 I have read in the news that the trof should actually be rather persistent and stick around for a while, care to share thoughts on that? Is it possible it could stick around, and what are any possible effects on track?

[Wx_Warrior]

Good job by models on this one. Time for myself to start looking what's next down the road for the tropics.

[cycloneye]

Good job by models on this one. Time for myself to start looking what's next down the road for the tropics.

Off-Topic=You will have plenty to see at the Models thread at Talking Tropics forum.

[wxman57]

It just goes to show how minor changes in the atmosphere can have a big impact on a hurricane. Some (not here) were saying it was the higher oceanic heat content that produced or greatly contributed to this morning's strengthening. If so, then what's happening now? Oh well, back to nearly a wave by tonight ... Bones remains seated.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ernesto's intensification process is being halted by daytime heating. Just wait until the sun goes down, like the other day.

[gatorcane]

The FIM model did quite well on this system also and called for a Yucatan/BOC system when the system was still east of the leewards. It also intensified the system in the Western Caribbean and that seemed to verify. The model can be found here:

http://fim.noaa.gov/

Then click on the "30km FIM (GSI-GFS init)" link

Here is the 240 hour forecast from the 00Z FIM from back on Aug. 1st...not bad!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

I think the current NHC track is still the on. That High is getting stronger

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd also like to remind everybody that recon reports a continued motion at 305 degrees. There has been no westward turn.

[wxman57]

Recon left before the westward movement began. I'm measuring an average heading of 270 deg from 1545Z to 1845Z (past 3 hrs) and a speed of 14 kts. During that period, the center wobbled around, occasionally appearing to track a little south of due west.